Nine race card this afternoon featuring a two nice allowance races, two maiden special weight races for two year olds, and some good betting races on the back end of the card.
Race 1: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, F/M 5 ½ Furlongs Turf: My Picks: 3-1-5
The opener doesn’t offer a lot of opportunities for creative handicapping as the longshots, on paper, look to be pretty hopeless. Unexpectedly (3) just missed at this level last time out. This field appears to have much less depth. Grand Slam Getaway (1) had a decent race on the grass last year at Indiana Grand. Her polytrack form at Turfway was bad, but she should get a little class relief. Two More Times (5) hasn’t run in a year and takes a huge drop out of maiden special weight races in her return. This is not a formula I like, but the competition is slim and Bejarano has been riding well.
Race 2: 5,000 Claiming NW3L or 3yo, F/M, 1 Mile My Picks: 6-1-7
There are some tough reads in this race with a variety of horses coming in from different tracks, different surfaces, and varying class levels. I ended up on Matt’s Honey (6) who is taking a significant drop in her return to the dirt. She’s run well twice on this track, and her form has been improving while running on the grass in her last three. Indicating (1) was a respectable third at a similar level on opening week. While the class level was similar, the compact field she faced that day was a stronger group. Over The Blues (7) has the least experience of the group, which at this level, isn’t a bad thing. Her speed figures are a little light, but she takes a major drop in class.
Race 3: 5,000 Claiming NW2L, F/M 5 ½ Furlongs, My Picks: 8-4-9
This is another race where form is tough to decipher as three of the nine are coming off races where their speed figures took a significant jump forward. They may be overbet and I’m not sure if they’ll be able to replicate that effort. I’ll try Analyze This Cat (8), who runs second off a layoff today. Her form was gradually improving at Turfway, and I think she’s a little better on the main track. I don’t love that’s she’s only 1 for 19, but the competition she’s up against isn’t fierce. My Discreet Secret (4) ran a strong race to break her maiden at Turfway last out in January. Her pedigree suggests dirt will be her preferred surface and this is a reasonable spot for her first try against winners. On paper, One Step (9) is very logical and will likely be even money in this spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins easily, but I always am wary of horses that run back for a significantly lower claiming price than they were claimed for a few races ago. She was claimed for 30K in March and reappeared in a 20K claimer at CD last month, where she was a dull 6th. Now she is in a race for 1/6 of her March purchase price. She’s hard to get too excited about, as clearly her connections aren’t that enthused.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight 2yo, 5 Furlongs, My Picks: 5-7-Entry
Interesting two year old race here where half of the field cost their owners over six figures each. The other half consists of three more modestly priced colts and one home bred. I’ll try Cool Rags (5) on top for Calhoun. I like Union Rags as a sire and the Smart Strike influence on the dam side gives you a horse that could be talented now and at longer distances on both surfaces. He has a steady work pattern for his debut and may get overlooked as the entry will take a lot of money. Fast Bob (7) was purchased for $9,500. He has three starts already, and got close here on opening day. He draws outside again, which should be advantageous. Mr Sippi (1A) is slightly preferred over Trapiche (1), assuming they both run. Both horses are six figure purchases from young sires Runhappy and Upstart. Both have a decent string of works and either could be a player in here.
Race 5: 50,000 Optional Claiming/N$Y Allowance, F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 4-1-2
The featured race today kicks off the pick 5 and contains six talented fillies and mares, all of which are six figure earners. There’s a lot of early speed here and a few fillies that don’t do well when they’re not leading. I expect a strong pace and that should set things up for 14 time winner Heavens Whisper (4). She is moving up in class and while her recent speed figures are light, she’ll get a good set up as she looks to get her third straight win. Irish Mischief (1) has been away since February when she was a dull 8th, when beaten by a few of these. She’s got the best company lines of late though, as she is graded stakes placed, and she was an emphatic winner on this course last year. Headland (2) was a decent second in the Saylorville last out at Prairie Meadows. After winning 5 of 8 in 2019, she hasn’t found the Winner’s Circle in her last seven tries, but she is a serious exotics threat.
Race 6: 10,000 Claiming, Non Winners of 2 Lifetime, F/M, 1 Mile Turf, My Picks: 8-3-9
Stylish Kitten (8) is the lukewarm morning line favorite and the most logical horse in here. She takes a significant drop, but I wouldn’t consider it an alarming drop as she was claimed for 10K at the end of February. Her two races on the grass are good enough to beat these if she’s able to run back to them. Silent Surprise (3) is interesting here at 12-1, as she too, is dropping in class. Toss her last start at Turfway where she wore blinkers for the first time and bore out badly. Her turf form fits with these if she’s ready to go off a four month freshening. Double Oaked (9) ran in the same conditioned race here four weeks ago, where she made the lead in the stretch and was headed late. Everything Montano has sent out this meet has been live.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 and ½ Furlongs Turf: My Picks: 8-7-5
This is the second baby race on the card, and I’ll look to the outside with Gator Romp (8). He has a string of decent works at Keeneland and gets Geroux aboard for his debut. Casse sends out Committed (7), who cost $325,000 at the Keeneland September Sale last year. I would think that Casse’s best stock would be based at the Spa, but this one looks like he could be a runner. Petit Verdot (5) tired late at 5 and ½ Furlongs on a yielding course last out, when defeated by the highly touted Fauci. Speed is definitely his weapon and a firm course should help him out.
Race 8: Optional 25,000 Claiming/NW1X Allowance, F/M 1 Mile: My Picks: 10-8-4
One mile on the dirt is an odd distance at Ellis, and outside posts seem like they would be compromised. The three favorites for this race drew posts 9, 10, and 11. I think Enjoyitwhilewecan (10) is best suited to overcome the tricky post. She ran a strong second last out to future CCA Oaks winner Paris Lights in allowance company at Churchill. She has enough tactical speed to secure a decent position and should improve off her last. Sweet Carolina (8) may have the best early speed in the field. She’s been a well-traveled, and consistent filly. I thought she handled her first dirt route impressively last out, beating lesser at Churchill. Hartman will have her more fit today. I can see her taking a decent step forward off her last. Second Coming (4) has been running in some of the saltier allowance races at Churchill as well. She has a post advantage over some that have beaten her before. I think she sits a better trip and could add value underneath.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 5 and ½ Furlongs, Turf My Picks: 5-11-8
This is an absolutely wide open maiden race to close the card. 30-1 is a crazy high morning line for Full Authority (5). He showed speed in his only turf try at two turns and faded late. Summer Front is a strong turf sire, so I would think that 5 and ½ Furlongs on the grass would be a good trip for him. If he goes off near these odds, that would be excellent value to me. Hug The Munny (11) took a solid step forward on this course last out in a smaller field. I like an outside post for him as he should sit a nice stalking trip. Rye Humor (8) hasn’t run since last January, when he debuted in a very salty maiden special on the dirt at Gulfstream. This is an interesting spot for his return. But Leparoux takes the call, and that may be enough to get him in the money.