This is the first Friday of the summer meet at Ellis Park. Today’s card features nine races, with four of them on the turf course. The feature is the 8th race, which is an allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 Mile on the grass.
Race 1: 7,500 Maiden Claiming, F/M, 6F: My Picks: 7-6-1
I don’t usually make a habit of betting 0-12 maidens, but Her Giant (7) comes in second off a layoff while dropping in class. She ran her best career race under these circumstances on this course last year. I’ll take a shot with her to improve off her last. Rosy May (6) is one of two first time starters in the field. Kenneally usually has his horses well prepared and well spotted for their debuts. Mrs. Kimberly K (1) plummets to the bottom after a dismal effort with 30K maiden claimers at Churchill. Her Southern California form from the winter puts her close with these.
Race 2: 5,000 Claiming Non-winners in 2020, F/M, 1 Mile: My Picks: 3-4-1
C Islandsurprise (3) ran well enough with open 5K claimers at Churchill last out. She has the best speed in a fairly paceless race. Despite never finishing first here, she has never been off the board in five starts on this oval. Northern Connect (4) is another mare who likes racing on this track. Her recent form at Oaklawn has been dreadful, but she has been competitive when racing at this level in the past. Urban Kat (1) is the morning line favorite who drops to the bottom today. She was claimed for 25K in November, but hasn’t been competitive anywhere near that class of racing since. Her speed figures put her in the mix, but it’s hard to get excited taking a short price on her.
Race 3: 10,000 Claiming, Non Winners of 2 Races, F/M, 1 Mile 1/16 Turf:
My Picks: 2-5-3
I Saw Her First (2) is coming off a clunker on the dirt at this level at Churchill. Her one start on the grass suggests that returning to the turf will be a welcome change. She should be forwardly placed early in a race that doesn’t have a dedicated pacesetter. On Strike (5) might offer some value in this spot as her turf form was improving last winter at Tampa. She was away from the races for almost a year before shaking off the dust twice at Turfway. Her best effort gets her close in this field. Double Oaked (3) is another morning line favorite that is hard to get excited about. She moves up while returning to grass, but is at risk for being pace compromised here.
Race 4: 10,000 Claiming, Non-winners of 3 Races or 3yo, 6F: My Picks: 4-1-5
I’ll take a flyer on Nice Work (4) who is not in great form right now, but has races in his past that would make him very competitive with this group. Three of his last four races have been pretty bad, but you can make reasonable excuses for each of those races. He now takes a logical drop to the cheapest level of his career. I’m hoping for close to his 12-1 morning line, but not expecting his odds to be that high. Firehorn (1) ran a strong race last out with similar horses at Churchill. He looks like he could be racing into better form, but he hasn’t won a race since September of 2018. Impunity (5) was claimed for 20K last out by Maker and runs back for 10K today. The purse of this race is $10,500, meaning that the winner will get a little more than $6,000. If the horse wins and is claimed, the best his connections can do is lose $4,000 plus the other costs of owning the horse for a month. I have great respect for Maker, especially in the claiming ranks, and I think his horse gets a decent pace set up here, but the math makes me very nervous about using this one top.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Turf: My Picks: 1-5-6
Substantial (1) had some trouble early on and faded late in his three year old debut. His pedigree (Race Day out of an Aragorn mare) suggests that two turns will be better for this horse. I’m expecting significant improvement today, as he feels like a logical single for me. Patriot’s War (5) debuts for Brendan Walsh today and gets Julien Leparoux to ride. I would expect him to be more formidable next time out, but I think he’s a logical horse to use underneath. Asher’s Music (6) debuted in the same race that Substantial ran in last time out. He was only four lengths behind my top pick that day. It’s reasonable to think that he could improve in his second start while stretching out.
Race 6: 7,500 Maiden Claiming, 6F: My Picks: 7-9-8
This has the look of a race where anything can happen. Asphalt (7) debuted on the grass in maiden special at Belterra, where he showed brief zip, then folded up badly. He takes a significant drop and switches to dirt for a decent trainer in Kobiskie. Apprentice Crystal Conning has won 6 of the 10 races she ridden for him. Wyoming Conquest (9) adds blinkers today after improving in three starts at Oaklawn. Talamo sees fit to take the mount. Box of Rain (8) makes his first start for the Diodoro barn. He drops to the bottom after racing in state bred maiden special weight company. His connections alone make him worth a shot at this level, especially at a price.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight 2yoF, 5F: My Picks: 3-6-1:
I typically look to for horses with a race under their belts in races like this, but the horses who have run have shown very little. I’ll try Sariah Sariah (3) on top. She’s got a work tab that dates back to January, so even though she’s making her first start, she should have a decent foundation. Zebra Cake (6) is by far the most expensive filly in the bunch. She’s by Runhappy, so you’d think speed would be her game. Ava’s Grace (1) debuts from freshman sire Laoban. I don’t love the rail and I’d prefer to see a few more works. I think she’s one to watch for next time.
Race 8: N1X Allowance, 1 Mile Turf: My Picks: 7-2-5
This is an eclectic bunch going a flat mile in what appears to be the best betting race of the day. Front Man (7) looked comfortable sitting midpack while defeating 50k maiden claimers last out. I like playing horses in their next start when they take a big step forward in their first turf start. This is a big step up, so there needs to be value. Limnery (2) is the most logical horse in here. He has been getting better, but he needs to learn how to finish a race. Perhaps Giroux coming back can help that issue. Beverly Park (5) had a respectable debut on the grass at Colonial last year. He makes his second start of this season while coming back to the grass for the first time since his debut.
Race 9: 10,000 Claiming Non-Winners of 2 Races, 1 Mile 1/16 Turf: My Picks: 3-5-9
Urban Light (3) has been beaten by some pretty stiff competition in his last few, prior to throwing in a clunker in the dirt last out. He drops again and is the most logical play in the race. The Sheik of Araby (5) has two big turf tries on his resume. The problem is they were in 2018, and he’s only had one try since. His last race was awful, but a return to turf might help. My Interest (9) is another one that will likely appreciate returning to grass. He too has been in bad form of late, but, he’s not facing much here.