This is the second Friday of the Ellis meet, as they took a week off to accommodate the Keeneland meeting. I’m hoping to build off a decent first week with 4 top choice winners. This is a nice, nine race card today with some decent fields and five races scheduled on the grass.
Race 1: 5,000 Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 9-6-7
You don’t see too many races for 5K claimers on the grass in North America, and this one feels like the top three have a decided advantage over the rest of the field. I’ll try Flight Time (9) on top as he comes back to the grass for the first time since September, when he was well beaten in a restricted stakes at Kentucky Downs. Since then, he’s been racing primarily on dirt in lower level claiming races. He is a three time winner on grass, one of those races being a Group 1 race in Brazil in 2018. I think he has the best speed in the field and should be able to hold off the others. Alien Season (6) drops to the bottom for Wesley Ward. He beat New York breds in allowance company on a yielding course at Aqueduct in November of 2018. Since then, he’s raced sporadically and has been off the board each time. He certainly fits at this level, but will likely be a pretty short price. Modern Tale (7) figures to improve off his last two dull efforts on synthetic at Turfway. His turf form in sprints fits nicely here. I don’t think he’ll go off anywhere near his 15-1 morning line.
Race 2: 7,500 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, My Picks: 7-6-2
Not the strongest group assembled for bottom level maidens here. I’m trying to beat the Asmussen horse, Port Hunter (4) who is dropping, but consistently fades when passed. I’ll try Count Your Pennies (7) who has only two career tries on dirt (five overall). His last was an improvement at this level on this surface. He now moves to a route race after two sprints. Golden Rule Haven (6) does his best work when he’s allowed to make one run instead of attending the pace. He’s cutting back from nine furlongs, which could be an advantage. Pay The Bailiff (2) makes his second career start and while dropping in class. He adds blinkers in an effort to be more forwardly placed in the early stages.
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, My Picks: 8-5-12
Much like the race before, I’m going to try to beat the likely favorite, Into The Sunrise (6) from a high profile barn. I didn’t like his debut, and I think if Ward thought he’d be better on the turf, that is where he would have debuted him. I’ll try Cuz (8), who is the only other horse in the field making his second career start. His pedigree suggests turf will be an upgrade, as he’s by multiple graded stakes winner on grass, Ironicus, out of an Arch mare. Tijuana Brass debuts for Maker and get Corrales, who rode well here two weeks ago, aboard. He might prefer to go a little further than this, but I think he can be competitive. Captain Bernardo (12) shows a long string of decent works at The Thoroughbred Center in Lexington. He looks like he could be well meant.
Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, Non Winners of 2 Lifetime, 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 6-2-3
Pretty straightforward NW2L claiming race here. Woopigsooie (6) seems to have a decided advantage over these based off of his two career dirt starts. He was a respectable third against better two back and now takes a significant drop into a pretty weak field. Not Again Jackie (2) returned from a four month layoff with a decent try at this level last out. He’s the most likely one to step forward and challenge the likely favorite. Ah Yeah (3) showed promised while winning on debut at Indiana in October. His winter at Oaklawn was disappointing at best. He drops again and has been freshened up a bit.
Race 5: Optional 40,000 Claiming/Allowance N$X, F/M 5 ½ Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 3-4-2
Hidden Facts (3) had two slightly disappointing tries at Churchill after some strong efforts earlier in the year at Gulfstream. She might be more effective at 5 Furlongs, but she finds a field where she shouldn’t have to work too hard to get the early lead and I think she’s more apt to carry her speed here instead of on the CD course. Ain’t No Elmers (4) is an interesting new face to the turf scene. Her first two starts suggested that she has a lot of ability. She regressed while being beaten by Grade 1 winners Gamine and Speech, and multiple Grade 3 winner, Four Graces. Her pedigree suggests that she could be live coming on the grass. Dixieincandyland (2) is coming off of some tough trips in full fields at Churchill. She’ll should get a better trip today with less foes to worry about.
Race 6: 16,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 5-3-2
Zapper Van Winkle (5) is another favorite who looks very hard to beat on paper. He’s made the lead from off the pace, just to be worn down in his last two starts. He drops and figures to have a good shot to get it done at this level. Epic West (3) showed some zip before fading against better in his second career try at CD last time. Calhoun’s horses usually take a step forward in their second try off a layoff. Ashpalt (2) was my top choice at 12-1 against lesser two weeks ago, and nearly made my afternoon great until he was nipped at the wire. He moves up in class after battling for the lead from an outside post last time. He has a faster horse to his outside now and will need likely need to show that he can rate. I don’t think the value will be there today.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, F/M, 1 Mile Turf: My Picks: 1-4-2
The “known” quantities in this race haven’t wowed me, so I’m going to look for value elsewhere. Posh Princess (1) meant to debut on the grass before rains caused that race to be switched to the main track. She broke well, but couldn’t keep up with the hot tempo set on the dirt, and faded badly. Her pedigree says turf will be her preferred surface and Bridgmohan keeps the mount. Rearrange (4) came close to beating a next out a next out winner last time. This is an easier field than the group she faced at Churchill, so improvement should be expected. Miss Paco Lemon (2) debuted for a 50,000 tag and passed some horses late after a slow start. She moves to the Drury barn, who has won with 30% of his new acquisitions. I think she could easily be overlooked here.
Race 8: Allowance Non-Winners of 2 Lifetime, 1 Mile: My Picks: 2-6-1
West Sider (2) exits an interesting turf race at Indiana Grand, where he was beaten by another former Baffert trainee, Mo Hawk, who ran in the Peter Pan yesterday. He won first asking at 7 Furlongs on dirt. There’s no time or speed figure listed for that race, but not many horses can win first out at 7F. He’s interesting while returning to dirt here. Not sure how many Chad Brown horses have started at Ellis in the past, but he sends out Motagally (6) here. He put in a decent effort at the distance in a pretty strong off the turf allowance at CD in May. He tried the turf next out and was flat. He’s a logical choice returning to the main track. Automate (1) makes his first start for Amoss off the claim. He was a decent 4th last out, and I wouldn’t rule this one improving while moving up in class.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, F/M 5 ½ Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 7-8-12
Full field for the finale here. I’ll give the slight edge to Sail On Ellen (7) who ran well off a four month layoff last out, despite a wide trip. She’s been right there in all three starts and faces a field that doesn’t look as deep as her last. Memory Moment (8) debuted in an off the turf maiden special last year and hasn’t been seen since. She is by temple City, should I’m expecting improvement as she tries the grass. Stonewood (12) has shown good speed on dirt in two starts. She’ll have to overcome the outside post, but, being by Speightstown, she could improve trying the grass and shortening up a bit.