Only eight races for the final Friday of the meet from Henderson, Kentucky. Ellis is always an underrated track for summer wagering, and there are some good wagering opportunities throughout the day.
Race 1: 10,000 Claiming NW3L or 3yo, 1 Mile, Turf: My Picks: 1-5-7
I think the morning line favorites are beatable, which should make this an appealing StableDuel race. I’ll try Christian’s City (1) on top after a decent second at Belterra. His three turf tries have been credible and he should benefit from moving from an outside draw to the rail. Surge Pricing (5) is the likely pacesetter here. He went too fast in the same race at Belterra last out, but shouldn’t find as much pace pressure here. Love Your Buttons (7) was 4th at Arlington last out. He can rally for a piece, but rarely gets the top prize.
Race 2: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 1-4-5
Epic West (1) has the most upside in this field. He faded late, but shortens up and makes his first start as a gelding. Celtic Mischief (4) fits in here after three straight on the board finishes against similar. Bourbon Bryce (5) has outrun his odds in the last two and could hit the board and add some value to exotics in the race.
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 1 Mile 1/16, Turf: My Picks: 6-2-1
Some intriguing first time starters in this two turn turf contest for two year olds. I’ll look to Tamanransett (6) from the hot young sire Not This Time. His works are good enough and Kenneally’s horses can win at first asking. Sonic City (2) is a son of Temple City and has Scat Daddy as a dam sire. McPeek can also win first time out. Uncle Nick (1) is the most desirable of those with racing experience. He had an even journey on debut and could move forward off that effort.
Race 4: 5,000 Claiming, NW2L, 1 Mile: My Picks: 2-8-6
Golden Rule Haven (2) has improved in his two starts at the meet so far. He finds a pretty soft field and a decent post for this group. Justin Zee (8) returned last month after a three month break. He could improve while facing a softer group today. Lea Ridge (6) doesn’t excite me much as the 8/5 ML favorite, seeing as how he’s been beaten double digits in his last eight starts. He hits the bottom and takes off the blinkers today. He should be around for a share.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf: My Picks: 6-3-9
Beautiful Morning (6) debuted in a significantly stronger maiden special weight at Keeneland last month. He started to move forward and was severely bothered, forcing him to check hard and lose all chance. He’s worked well since and could offer value in this race. Graysonsmacho Gal (3) took a similar field a long way, before fading late last out. He’s lone speed in here today and is dangerous if he can set some slower fractions. Bellucci (9), by American Pharoah, moves to the grass after two dirt sprints. He’s been working well on synthetic and gets Leparoux to ride.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 5 Furlongs: My Picks: 8-5-6
Littlestitous (8) is the only filly with a race under her belt. She was placed near the rail, made a run and faded first out. She gets an outside draw today and has a definite advantage over her rivals today. Sweet Ginger (5) debuts for the Hancock barn, who likes to have his two year olds fully cranked for a debut. Her blowout work here last week suggests she’ll be ready to fire. Super Quick (6) has a strong foundation of works leading up to her debut. He’s by Super Saver out of a Cape Town mare, so there’s definitely precocity in her pedigree.
Race 7: Allowance NW1X, F/M, 1 Mile Turf: My Picks: 5-2-8
Ununderstandable (5) woke up when she returned to the grass last out. They went fast early on in that race and she still only lost by a length. She looks strong against this group today. Loving Moment (2) has races that make her competitive with this field. She’s ran into problems in her last two and could move forward and offer a little value. Ginseng (8) has been off form of late, but could improve while coming back to the grass. She has races in her past that are good enough to factor here.
Race 8: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, F/M, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 11-9-7
This race looks ripe for a longshot, and there’s no one jumping off the page. I’ll take a flyer with Reagan’s Indy Lady (11) who has a pedigree that suggests turf will be to her liking. She’s shown little in her first three tries, but, she did show some early zip last out, which was her first race since November. She’s second off a layoff, and runs for a barn that has won at a 22% clip this year. She’s The Boss (9) drops to the bottom and returns to the grass, where she ran her best race to date. She’s the likely favorite here and should be right in the mix. Pact (7) doesn’t strike me as a sprinter, but she’s run well enough to compete at this level.