A nine race Friday card kicks off the week at Ellis. Three maiden special weight races go on the grass today along with two nice allowances races.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 5 and 1/2 Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 4-9-6
The opener is the first division of a maiden allowance for two year old fillies where I think you might want to take a swing against the Asmussen and Casse first timers. Neither have had a great amount of success at the meet, as their best horses are in New York right now. Music City Star (4) debuts for Christoper Davis, who has won with 4 of his 12 firsters over the last two years. Her mom and dad weren’t turfers, but the dam sire is City Zip and her works are good enough. Navratilova (9) is out of Medaglia d’Oro and the Grade 1 winning mate, Centre Court. Arnold’s horses usually need a race, and I assume two turns will be in her future, but she still could make noise here. Magic Solution (6) debuts for Maker and he gets Geroux to ride. This barn has been live with his 31 starters thus far at the meet.
Race 2: 5,000 Claiming NW2L, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 5-6-2
Class droppers galore in this race and Brad Cox sends out the logical favorite in Golden Notion (5) who is one of them. He plummets to 5k claimers after failing to fire with 50k and 30K NW2L in his last two. He seems logical amongst a punchless field. Temple Bar (6) has been dull in his first three starts after being claimed, but his last two were routing turf and his dirt form sprinting at Oaklawn fits here. River Finn (2) misfired in the slop at Indiana Grand last time. He cuts back to a sprint for the first time since his debut.
Race 3: 16,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile: My Picks: 3-6-5
I’m not in love with anyone in here, but there’s a decent amount of speed, especially from the outside, which could set this race up for a closer. I’ll take a shot with Smart Call (3) to close as he comes back to dirt racing and drops in class. Turf to dirt is a solid barn angle and Talamo has been riding well of late. Boating Party (6) was well beaten in two salty maiden special weight races at Oaklawn. The turf experiment failed last out, so this well bred son of Curlin takes a logical drop. Jack’s Advantage (5) also drops from maiden special and returns to dirt. McPeek’s horses have been live at the meet.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 5 and 1/2 Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 8-2-10
The second division doesn’t seem to have as much potential as the first. Saturday Night (8) debuted well here last month, despite being a little green. Brad Cox’s horses usually improve in their second try. Lucky Shore (2) ran well enough at a huge number at Keeneland last month. I can forgive her non-effort last out in an off the turf race. 20-1 seems like a huge number while facing a lot of iffy unknowns. Regal Song (10) has a turf pedigree and a decent set of works coming in. Neil Howard’s horses usually need a start or two, but she could figure from her outside draw.
Race 5: 5,000 Claiming NW3L or 3yo, 1 Mile: My Picks: 5-7-3
StableDuel players might want to take a close look at this race, as the morning line feels a little funky here. I’m using Fugiwhara (5) at 20-1 on the morning line here. He’s moving up in class after beating a 5k NW2L field at Belterra last out. He’s one of a few that can get the distance here and he made a sharp improvement after being claimed and moved to the Aaron West barn. Even though he’s only had a few starters locally, he’s winning at a 22% clip for the year and he gets Talamo to ride. Firehorn (7) drops after a dud in the slop last out at Indiana Grand. He’s got good early foot, and even though I think he’d want to go a bit shorter than the mile, his two turn speed figures fit here. Dr. Forman (3) takes a massive and slightly suspicious drop after a dull try in the Grand Prairie Derby last out at Lone Star. He’s only a few starts removed from winning a 34k NW2L allowance are Delta, so the drop is a concern. I’ll cover him based on class alone, but I’ll try to beat him.
Race 6: 10,000 Claiming, NW2L, 1 Mile, Turf: My Picks: 5-1-6
Tom’s Last General (5) makes a lot of sense here after just missing at this level last out. His two turn turf races in are his best races, so I’m expecting him to be a little more stubborn late and get the distance today. Beaumont Beaux (1) is intriguing off the Ackerman claim here. He beat bottom maidens last out and now switches to turf for the first time. Pedigree and post are pluses for him. Briar Jumper (6) drops and figures to be well backed here. He probably fits at this level, but is 1-26 lifetime. It’s hard to take a short price on him.
Race 7: Allowance NW1X, F/M, 1 Mile: My Picks: 5-6-4
The second and third place finishers from the 7/25 allowance race here look tough. Regal Beauty (5) ran a solid second that day in her first start since moving from the Baffert barn to the Calhoun barn. She should improve after a run over the course. Lele (6) has improved in each of her four career tries. She’ll have to improve at least four lengths to get the win today. Curls and Bows (4) scored with 50k maiden claimers at Keeneland last out. She’s been improving and could add value underneath.
Race 8: 40,000 Opt Claiming/N$Y Allowance, 5 and 1/2 Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 9-2-7
American Butterfly (9) moves to the turf after steadily improving this year in Arkansas and Kentucky. Turf to dirt for the first time hasn’t been a great angle for D. Wayne Lukas of late, but this guy is bred to like the grass and looks faster than these. Maniacal (2) couldn’t kick in until it was too late last time. He looks like the only dedicated closer in the field that should be buzzing up front. Olson (7) took a step forward after beating lesser allowance foes on grass last time out. The water gets deeper here, but improvement can be expected.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 5 and 1/2 Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 3-1-11-12-6
Hug The Munny (3) feels logical in a race where there’s not much turf experience. I like playing horses back on firm ground after regressing on a heavier course, and this one fits the bill. Jess Mo (1) debuted in a salty maiden special weight on dirt. There’s enough turf pedigree to make a an impact in start number two. Both Don’tshowweakness (11) and Conquistador Show (12) are good enough to be a factor in here if either draw in. If neither gets in, I’ll look to firster Joyful Surprise (6) to round out the trifecta.