Solid nine race card which is the first since they announced a 20% purse boost for the remainder of the meet. As a result, fields are a little bigger than previous Friday’s. On the downside, the weather forecast is iffy for Thursday and Friday, so turf races might be in jeopardy of being moved to the main track. I’ll handicap the four turf races for both surfaces, and try to find some solid value plays for anyone that’s considering playing Friday’s $5 StableDuel game.
Race 1: 10,000 Claiming, NW2L, F/M, My Picks
Turf: 1-2-10 / Dirt: 2-10-3
Money Well Spent (1) may have found her niche sprinting on the grass when she beat a maiden claiming field here on 7/4. She was claimed off Maker into a lesser known barn and ran a lousy race on the main track against better fillies and mares in her last. If this race stays on the grass, I think she’ll be bet under her 6-1 morning line, but I like her chances the best. Naughty Factor (2) has tried to get back on the grass in her last two, but the weather had different plans. She may find herself in the same boat today. I like her better on the main track, but I think she’s dangerous on either surface. Divine Dharma (10) drops after a dull try with better horses at Indiana Grand. She has the best Beyer on grass in the field, but that was in a two turn race. I’m not sure she wants to go this short, but I think she’s classy enough to be a factor. Upgrade Ratherbluckythangood (3) on the main track as she ran a solid race here two back. She regressed in the mud last out, but I think she’ll be in a good position to be in the money.
Race 2: Allowance NW2L, F/M, 6 Furlongs
My Picks: 5-4-6
Interesting early card allowance, where all 6 fillies and mares have a similar running style, preferring to track the leader, but not be on the lead. I’ll try Urban Insight (5) on top, who has had more chances than any of these fillies to get her second win. However, she has been right there in her last three tries, and she has a strong race on this track last year. Remanded (4) is a deserving favorite, as she remains at this class level, but still gets class relief after facing next out winners in all three of her career starts. Sugar Love (6) may take the initiative to take the lead from her outside draw. She should improve in her second start off the layoff.
Race 3: 30,000 Maiden Claiming, F/M, 1 Mile 1/16 Turf
My Picks: Turf: 5-9-4 / Dirt: 9-5-1
Sway My Way (5) debuted in an off that turf maiden special weight at Belterra, that looked better on video than on paper. She was a step slow out of the gate and got buried on the rail, before making a nice run to get up for third. Her pedigree screams turf and she stretches out, so she should be more tactical. I think she could offer strong value if this race stays on the grass, but I’d still bet her stretching out and dropping in class on the dirt. Tuff Bird (9) draws the outside while dropping into maiden claiming company for the first time. She’s shown the ability to race on the pace or off the pace and she also has a dirt try that suggests she’ll be tough if this race is rained off the grass. Heavenly Peace (4) checks all the boxes from a class a speed figure stand point. She’s likely going to be favorite on grass, but my concern is her lack of early speed and leaving herself too much work to do to get the win. Upgrade Areemaa (1) if this race is off the grass, as she has decent dirt form with better horses. I am slightly concerned if the track is sloppy though, as she hasn’t been as game when there’s a ton of moisture in the track.
Race 4: Optional 40,000 Claiming/ N$Y Allowance, F/M, 1 Mile
My Picks: 2-5-1
Cardamon (2) stretches out to a mile, which, based on her pedigree, should be favorable. She was a decent 5th against better fillies in an allowance last out at Keeneland. High Regard (5) exits a graded stakes on the grass at Monmouth. Her start two back on dirt at Churchill would likely beat these by open lengths. She hasn’t won in a while but has two really nice drills at Keeneland, so she looks ready. Sara Sea (1) met a rocket here under the same conditions last out and wilted late as New Roo blew by her. She’s capable of better, but I do fear a potential speed duel with Diamondcoat that may soften her up.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, F/M, 6 Furlongs
My Picks: 5-7-2
Flatoya (5) returns to a sprint after getting cooked in a speed duel while stretching out to a mile at Keeneland. She makes a lot of sense while cutting back. Villanelle (7) is a 300k Curlin filly with a strong string of workouts leading up to her first start. Brad Cox usually has his horses well prepared to debut. Majestic Blend (2) ran a strong race to be third under these conditions here last time out. She’ll need to prove that she’s able to move forward off that race to beat these.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile 1/8 Turf
My Picks: Turf: 5-7-3 / Dirt 3-7
Beachwalker (5) is intriguing at 15-1 here as he’s performed well on grass at the distance and very easily could be the lone speed in this paceless race. I don’t love that’s he transferred to a relatively unknown trainer and running off a three month layoff, but at a price, I’ll take that gamble. If they stay on the grass, he makes a ton of sense for your StableDuel stable. Pine Knoll (7) will be the likely and deserving favorite off a strong turf debut at Keeneland. It’s also a plus that he can handle a course with some give in it, as that could be the case today. His dirt form is good enough to contend here. If Beachwalker isn’t the pacesetter, it will likely be Civil Servant (3). His pedigree suggests that turf will be okay for him, however, he’ll be a likely heavy favorite on the main track. At at 7-2 on the morning line, he’ll offer solid StableDuel value if this race comes off the lawn.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 Furlongs: My Picks: 6-3-10
Money Miles (6) is one of only two horses in this dozen that have a race under their belt. He was forwardly placed before getting pinched back and throwing in the towel. He cuts back in distance and makes a lot of sense to me. Tkotchke (3) debuts from the Asmussen, who has sent out a lot of money burners at this meet so far. However, you know he’s been well prepared. Wilkes sends out the most expensive purchase in Joe Man Joe (10). He has a series of respectable works, but I suspect he’ll be better next time.
Race 8: Allowance, NW2L, 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 1-7-3
Third and final allowance race on the card, and this one looks like it should be pretty formful. Sagaponack (1) made his first start for the Lukas barn at this level, going a flat mile last out. While wide early, he pushed a strong early tempo and faded late. He faces a softer field with less speed, while cutting back in distance. Sea of Hope (7) has run 6 of his 7 starts on grass, but his one dirt start may have been his best race. He should be coming late. Hersh (3) returns to dirt as well, which should suit him. He usually runs a good race, but is more of an exotics player.
Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, F/M, 1 Mile Turf,
My Picks: Turf: 9-2-6 / Dirt: 6-11-8
Trying to go price shopping in the wide open finale. I’ll try Tale of La Comete (9) who ran a nice third while sprinting at this level on a yielding course. Her pedigree suggests she can move forward while stretching out. Coco Caballo (2) ships in from Indiana Grand and drops in class. She’s improved in two grass tries. Moquett’s been live with a limited stable here. Sequaya (6) has run three similar races while dropping in class to this level. Her dirt debut makes her formidable if this race comes off the turf. The same could be said for Grand Slam Getaway (11) who hasn’t been on the dirt since her debut. Her form has been weak lately, but dirt racing could be what she wants. Slainte (8) gets major class relief, as she drops from 50k maiden claiming, but she’ll still likely need to do better.