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HOLLYWOOD DERBY Grade 1

Del Mar 

1mile and 1/8th Turf $300,000

This race should be called the Twilight Derby II, since 7 out of the 13 horses are coming out of that race. There should be some quick early pace with the #2 and #3 going to the lead early on. Some huge closers are in this field but I think if you are sitting mid pack or right off the pace turning for home, you will be in the prime position to win. That being said, if you like one of the off pace horses, I would bet. Good Luck!

1. Mo Forza- Paco Lopez- Peter Miller
   1. This Peter Miller trainee gets the aggressive Paco Lopez aboard today and should be more fit when coming into this race as he is coming in 2nd off the lay-off. In his first race off the short layoff, he ended up winning his biggest race to date and also ran a career race in the Twilight Derby at Santa Anita which is a grade 2 at the same distance. Most likely Peter Miller was using that as a tune-up/test race to see if he could complete and if he could, the next target would be this race. Paco should be sitting on the rail saving a little bit of ground and then make his move at the top of the stretch. The early pace is directly outside of him so he should be able to sit cleanly.
2. Kingly- Mario Gutierrez- Bob Baffert
   1. Kingly for Baffert should be dueling on the lead here early on. He dueled early on last time out in the same race #1 Mo Forza ended up winning which was the Twilight Derby. I think he wants shorter and he is a need the lead to win type of horse. Baffert isn’t much of a top tier turf trainer but this one should be on the lead early or dueling with the other speed. Unless the pace holds with some bias, I don’t see him winning today.
3. Uncle Bull- Joe Talamo- Mark Casse
   1. Uncle Bull for Mark Casse is coming in from Canada and he seems to like to go to the lead early. He can sit off the pace as well but majority of the time he goes right to the front. Casse has been tearing it up at Woodbine and brings this one all the way west today looking for turf since Woodbine is done with turf for the rest of the meet. Uncle Bull seems to be a stubborn horse down the lane when watching replays and he doesn’t like to go by horses or let horses by him, so if he is in front at the top of the stretch he might just be game enough to stay up. However, I think he is just outclassed and would need to set easy fractions in order to have some left at the end. 
4. Digital Age (IRE)- Javier Castellano- Chad Brown
   1. One of the two Chad Brown shippers today is Digital Age. Digital Age is a proven turf horse but hasn’t been the same horse since the first half of the year. By looking at the form you can tell that something has been off since May in which he won the American Turf which is also his last win. He hasn’t won since then and has run in 4 straight stakes races at Belmont and Saratoga. Chad Brown is the best turf trainer in the country, but this fella seems to just not be that classy and Chad for some reason keeps him in Grade 1s. I will be passing on this horse as I feel he will be taking a lot of money due to connections and I think he is not that special. 
5. Neptune’s Storm- Abel Cedillo- Richard Batlas
   1. The Lukewarm morning line favorite is #5 Neptune’s Storm with Abel Cedillo aboard for Richard Batlas. I really like this spot for Neptune’s Gold. He is winless at Delmar but has yet to miss the Trifecta in 2 starts. I like the jockey switch from Santana Jr. to Abel Cedillo. If he goes back to his start two back he can win this race and should be able to sit a good trip. 
6. Nolde- Victor Espinoza-John Sherrifs
   1. Nolde is also coming out of the Twilight Derby in which he ended up running the worst race of his career in which he was rank and ended up steadying early and finishing 11th. However, it seems like you can put a line through that race due to the troubled trip. If you look at his prior races he fits in this spot and with these connections they seems to know that too. He has beaten Neptune’s Storm and Originaire two back, and in my opinion he can do it again today. A mid pack trip with some quick dueling fractions in front of him and he can be sitting real strong at the top of lane.
7. Proud Pedro(FR)- Tiago Pereira- Leonard Powell
   1. He seems to be coming into form, and he hits his best strides real late in the stretch. Tiago could have him rolling late but I think class will be an issue here for him. However, with the lined up speed early on today, I can see him getting the trip if he has the speed to do it. Because of the pace projection, I will be using this horse in horizontals but and underneath in vertical wagers. However, I will not be expecting him to win unless he really has a sharp late kick down the lane.
8. Henley’s Joy- Drayden Van Dyke- Michael Maker
   1. Good old Henley’s Joy is making his 16th career start today here for Mike Maker. He was wide in his last outing in the Twilight Derby, in which he still ran 4th. Van Dyke is one of my favorite turf riders in the country and he should be rolling late with Henley’s Joy. However, I think Henley’s Joy is the type of horse that needs everything to fall apart up front in order for him to really pick up the pieces late. Today I do not think that that type of trip wins this race. 
9. Standard Deviation- John Velazquez- Chad Brown
   1. I like this Chad Brown a lot more than the other entry. He might just like the Monmouth turf course rather than actually like turf. Quite frankly, I think he is more of a dirt horse than just so happens to be a Monmouth Turf course specialist. Because of that, I will not be using him today.
10. Moody Jim (IRE)- Flavien Prat- Jeff Mullins
    1. Moody Jim, seems to be coming in as a question mark when it comes to the class. Yet, Prat is aboard and usually the best jockey in a circuit can get one of the best mounts in a race and it seems that he is on a horse of quality here but he might not be on the best overall horse. He faced off against a decent amount of horses in this race when he ran in the Del Mar Derby back in September in which he finished 6th. Yet I think he is coming into form late as a 3yo, and he can win this. 
11. Mr Dumas- Joe Rocco Jr.- John Ortiz
    1. So, Mr Dumas, beat my top choices in the Commonwealth Turf back earlier this month, and the only reason I did not use him on top due to Joe Rocco being aboard in a field where I liked other horses and connections in the race. However, I still do not like this horse today. I think the last race was a fluke, since he had the perfect trip and set up. I just think it would be too much for him to win back to back graded stakes at two different tracks at a huge price both times. 
12. Originiare(IRE)- Heriberto Figueroa- Jeff Mullins
    1. Originiare needs the race to set up for him or he won’t even see the board. Mike Smith doesn’t ride him today, so Mullins who has 2 in the race decided to put Prat aboard the best one and Orginiare is not the best one. Figueroa is a legit rider but I think this horse’s best days are behind him this year. 
13. Succeedandsurpass- Rafael Bejarano- Richard Batlas
    1. Succeedandsurpass, is a legit contender for batlas but the post might be his downfall. He just missed in the Twilight Derby last time out, and is coming in 2nd off the layoff which means he should be 100% fit today. I wish Velazquez was aboard as he did choose the Chad Brown entry over this one, but Bejarano shows up in the big races like this one today. If he sits midpack, and the pace falls apart he will be moving late and it could result in him getting up at the wire. I will use in horizontals and verticals. 

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