Track Profile: Been tough to win on the lead, in fact of the 20 races only have been won by a horse that was on the lead at the second call (3/8 or 1⁄2 mile into the race) and all of those races were dirt sprints. The turf course has produced all off the pace winners, and the winning move has been to stalk mid pack and make an inside move in the stretch. Would slightly upgrade speed on dirt sprints, and slight down grade to early speed on all turf.
The Grid: Overview of selections. “A” horses are horses I will be using on all horizontal tickets and key plays for individual races. “B” horses used on horizontal tickets where other legs may be shallow. Horses that can certainly win. “C” horses are meant for deep tickets or spread legs. Horses that could win but may need to have things their own way, or have angles working against them. “X” horses are horses I do not see having a chance today, or whose value is not worth playing.
RACE 1: A: 3,5 B: 7 C: 2,6
RACE 2: A: 2,6 B: 1,3,8 C: 4,5
RACE 3: A: 4 B: 2,3 C: 5
RACE 4: A: 2,7 B: 1 C: 3, 9, 11
RACE 5: A: 2,3 B: 4,5 C: 6
RACE 6: A: 1,3 B: 3,5,7 C: 2,4
RACE 7: A: 4,6 B: 3,5 C: 1
RACE 8: A: 3,4 B: 7,8,11 C: 2,6
RACE 9: A: 4,5 B: 2,6 C: 1
RACE 10: A: 1,2 B: 3,10,11 C: 5,8,12
Spotlight Races: An in-depth look to the tools/angles used in select few races to come to decisions in the grid.
Race 1: A 2YO Cal Bred MSW race to kick off the card. When looking at these 2 YO races, I like to see who has early win pedigree and who is working well coming into the race, along with how connections normally approach the condition. Let’s take a look into #5 Good with People for Peter Miller. The win early pedigree jumps off the page. By using Formulator, you see a snip of the Dam profile below. Won her debut by 11 lengths! Now we look at the siblings out of that dam, and they are 3 for 4 as first time starters , the one that was not, was 2nd. For 2YO’s, the siblings are 5 for 9, hitting the board 8 of 9 times. These are small samples, but very strong. The workout snap shot from nationalturf.com and @clockerandy tells this one looks professional and ready.
The other horse of interest in the #3 Eagle in the Sky for Michael McCarthy. Mike does not normally have his horses cranked up for debuts, especially 2YO’s, but this one got bet a bit and went off as 2nd choice in debut and ran well despite some trouble at the start. The winner of that race (chart below) was Bolden who will be off to Stakes races. In the other snap below that, you will see Mike’s stats with the 2nd time out MSW 2YO as a very strong angle. I also highlighted all recent finishes of 2nd time starters, normally competitive.
Race 3: 6F DIRT ALW $50k 3YO+ Fillies
This is a perfect race to talk about trainer intention, and making assumptions that could lead to a winner or a fade. Nothing sexy here, as this will involve what will be an odds-on favorite, but Brad Cox brings in Jewel Thief for a $50k Allowance race with no other Cox runners going this weekend. Odd. But, a few things to consider. The ship and win program for Del Mar is lucrative,
where they hand you a check for $2k when running your horse from out of circuit, and a 20% bonus on top to the purses. Makes the 50k Allowance, now a $60k with most of the shipping costs covered. But bigger than that here, my assumption is that Jewel Thief is going to be enjoying the beauty of Del Mar for the summer, as this will be a prep for the G3 Rancho Bernardo Stakes, where again they can take advantage of the ship and win program and get this horse into stakes ranks against a shallower group of female sprinters here on the West Coast. This stakes race takes place the same weekend as The Pacific Classic and Del Mar Oaks, so wouldn’t be surprised if other Cox runners come in and then all ship out following this weekend. Owners of this horse is Slam Dunk racing, who have horses all over but primarily run in SoCal, making this move make even more sense. She’s there to win while positioning for a step up into stakes.
The only question mark/ risks I see is the fact this horse has not won beyond 5.5F, and has come in 2nd each time she was put in “chase mode”, each time with horse in front from go winning the race. But now with 3 months off , go to expect improvement out of this one and the last bullet work on 6/3 says this ones ready.
In checking with Thorograph, Jewel Thief sports the highest top figure in the race, best by a full point over Dehydration, and multiple points over rest of the field (1 point is big, think of it like 10 points on the Beyer Scale). Looking a little closer below you will see that the “Thoro-Pattern” is a very favorable one. Basically, Thoro-graph’s data base of allhorses that run on similar conditions with a similar figure pattern. In a sample of 795 horses, 26% of the time the horse improved by more than 1 point, and 42% of the time paired (or within 1 point) of their previous high. Assuming no major improvement of others, which I don’t see many signs, leaves this one with better than a 68% chance of maintaining the top fig after todays, or fair price of 1/2 on the odds board.
A long way to say….SINGLE.
Race 6: The Osunitas Stakes where the condition is for horses that have not won a stakes race other than Statebred competition which brings a nice mix of good Cal Breds and open company that have not won a stakes. First thing that sticks out in this race is the apparent lack of early speed. Now, like mentioned earlier, not a single horse has won on the lead on turf so far (yes, it’s early) but the longer that trend goes, the more you see jockey’s take back and not want to be there, resulting in slower pace. That combined with only one horse in this picture below from Thorograph Race Shapes, we could have a lone speed scenario with the 6 Cordiality, so would caution to include in case this one gets away with it and steals on the front end.
Let’s look a little closer into the 6 here. Keep in mind, the favorite, the #1, has a top figure of 6 coming into the race. The 6 tops that, however it was 2 years ago. Was running well in early 19 then took a full year off before returning last race, no wonder the regression in figure. The question is, does he bounce back 2nd off the layoff? Works have been consistent, nothing flashy but no concerns. Rispoli back on feels good, and this horse loves Del Mar with a career 5:2-2-0. Dangerous.
Speaking of loving Del Mar, the favorite does as well. See snip below as 3 of those 4 in the piture at DMR, with 2 wins and a nose loss. Look at the note for @clockerandy, this one could be primed for a big one today, the question is will there be enough pace to run at. With Prat aboard, it worries me less, as he has one of the best clocks in his head, and times thee turf routes well. Must use.