August 23rd, 2020
Track Profile: Been a pretty fair main track this meet with some increasingly favoritism towards early speed, especially in sprints. On routes, for the meet we have seen the bulk of the winners come from close to mid pack, but not on the lead, with wire to wire winners at about 25% win rate in routes. On turf, continues to play to the mid pack runners making big middle to late moves into the stretch. Turf Routes have been won gate to wire <15%, and even lower with horses coming from way out of it (5> lengths at 2nd call). Turf Sprints has been kinder to gate to wire winners, being only 5F, no surprise there with ~30% winners having the lead at 2nd call.
The Grid: Overview of selections. “A” horses are horses I will be using on all horizontal tickets and key plays for individual races. “B” horses used on horizontal tickets where other legs may be shallow. Horses that can certainly win. “C” horses are meant for deep tickets or spread legs. Horses that could win but may need to have things their own way, or have angles working against them. “X” horses are horses I do not see having a chance today.
My Plan of Attack:
The Early pick 5 for me will be centered around the two lone A horses. I will play multiple tickets, but those two will be key’s where if neither win, I’ll be in trouble, if both win, I should be in great shape to hit numerous tickets.
Best value on the day for be is in race #6, which is outside both the Early and Late Pick 5. Will be price dependent, but if anything close to the ML I will focus on some doubles in and out of this race and if speed is playing will also play WS and Exactas with I Belong to Becky as the key.
The Late Pick 5 is quite the challenge. My only “lone A” in the sequence is a 2YO firster, and I will have some singled tickets, but to get to an ALL button in the final leg will need to be skinny elsewhere as well (using only A’s in race 9 or 10). I am way more comfortable going shallow in race 9, as either Mo Farza and Galilean should get me home there. Pre-lim base ticket would look something like: 2,3,5,6,8/ 2 / 3,4/ 3,8,9,10,11/ ALL ($300) If you are looking for a cheaper ticket, could single Mo Farza to make it $150, or just use A’s and B’s in last ($200).
Jockey Leaders
Cold Jockey’s
