Went 4 of 5 on both the early and late pick 5 yesterday, and overall am due for a good horizontal score. I like this sequence, albeit a tricky one, as we get three MSW races, a Stakes, and a MDCL to finish off the Early pick 5. Even though Cruel Intentions will be a single on many tickets (which will cause me to play a contrarian backup ticket), I still feel there is a good chance this pays $1k+ for .50 base.
Early Pick 5 (main ticket): 2,4,6/ 1,5,7/ 2/ 2,3,6,7,8,9 / 1,4,6,10 ($108)
Early Pick 5 (contrarian): 1,2,4,6/ 5/ ALL/ 6,9/ 4,6,10 ($75)
Best Bet: Race 2: #5 Succeedandsurpass (5/1)
Daily Double: Race 1: 2,4/ 5,7
Race 1: 6F MSW $61k 2YO
Projection: 4-2-6
Peter Miller and Rockingham Ranch bring in 2 horses to this MSW event worth more than $1M combined. The #2 Wrecking Crew is your ML favorite at 9/5 and has been lighting it up in the mornings with strong workout grade grades which included an impressive bullet at SLR on 7/6, a solid 5F gate work at DMR on 7/18 before a final blowout 3 days ago. This $875k FTF 2YO purchase in March is sired by rookie Stallion Sky Kingdom whose babies are 0-10 to start (2-10 ITM) and the dam was unraced at 2, and 0-4 lifetime. Half sib started once and did not hit the board. Flavien getting the call for debut (24% lifetime with Miller), and I will use horizontally but looking elsewhere on top pick. Really like #4 Howbeit as my top selection here at 6-1 for Mendez and Cedillo who comes back after running here just 8 days back. That effort was strong enough to give Mendez the confidence to bump him back up in class on short rest (he has never raced a horse back in less than 10 days, but is 28% when running them back in 11-29 days). Loved the finish and gameness, despite the slow final 1/8th time, after being hustled to the lead and then dueling. Will be looking for him to get the jump on the #2 in good outside position, causing the firster to either have to press for the lead on the inside or circle late. Using defensivly, #6 Tizamagician, as Mandella (Or Tiznow 1sters) not known to win first out, but I like the improving 5F works lately and Magic Union (dam) had some strong figs on all surfaces. Victor’s bread and butter in the past 12 months are dirt sprints, both angles at +ROI. Also, is taking early money. Finally, I will not be using on my tickets, but I am curious to see the debut of Fredericktown for Desormeaux x2. Half to Gray Magician and Lombo out of a SW dam with the red-hot new sire Constitution. Keith is 5% with FTS 2YO’s so not expecting this one to be fully ready, but will be one to watch this season.
Race 2: 8.5F on Turf MSW61k
Projection: 5-7-1
ML fav is 0’fer in 13 tries and despite 5 second place finishes has never been within a length of the winner. Now, this horse has been confidently placed (Las AL Derby, CinemaB, BlueGrass, and Rebel) and this is very common for Reddam to maintain confidence in his good horses until they break through. Beyers jump off the page against his group, but when isolating just his Turf Routes on Thorograph he has run 9-9-9-8-8 pattern in 5 starts this year, with the last regressing slightly (8.2 vs. 8.1) so not sure we are going to see any big move forward here, where others in this field are likely to do so based on their lighter race careers thus far, so I will be playing against. For example, the top pick #5 Succeedandsurpass, who makes his NA debut after a 2nd place finish in Dundalk where he received an 11 Thorofig. Since coming over for Little Red Feather and Baltas, has worked with winning types like Morse Code and the Hunted (out working each). Drayden had worked this horse, so disappointed to not see him aboard, but Franco has been successful atop LRF owned horses. Expecting a strong jump forward here today, and appears to have a strong late kick which has been a winning style thus far in the meet combined with the presence of speed in the #1 and #6 horses. #7 Mo Farza showed some strong late kick into modest fractions in his debut Turf Route. He gets blinkers today, presumably to get him closer to the action early as this Uncle Mo colt has already shown a strong late kick. At this point, you’d be silly to leave a Prat off your ticket in Turf Routes, he has simply dominated this meet, and at 3-1 Mo Farza should be a prime contender. Will also be using the #1 The Longest Night. Works indicate that he should relish the routing distance, and although D’Amato numbers have been down, I have seen these multiple moves (spt to rte, and dirt to turf combined), combined with strong works pay off.
Race 3: 7F on dirt (Cal-breds) The Real Good Deal Stakes $150k
Projection: 2*-1-3
The ML Fav #2 Cruel Intention will be awfully tough here. Off a 7 month layoff last out, was in a wicked speed duel through fractions of 22.1/44.8/109.8 on a deep track that was playing to closers. Will get another pace test today as the outside horse #5 Posterize is no slouch early, but just not seeing that horse improve much on figs and would need to take a big leap forward to contend with Cruel Intention. Soft spot here, should cruise. Single.
Race 4: 8.5F on Turf, MSW $61k
Projection: 9-3-7-8-2
The second fleet of this same condition from race 2 and a rare Turf Race with quality horses where we don’t see Prat. A clear spread race for me here, as there are a bunch of horses whose breeding suggests big improvement is possible in this turf route, and others with other interesting angles. Lets get into them. First, the #9 Music to My Ears on the outside is interestingly placed here at this distance, where we have seen three consecutive sprint efforts at 6,5 and 5 furlong distance. All of a suden this $400k purchase and son of Goldencents shows up at 8.5 on turf. Koriner is usually a good placer of his horses, so this move is a sign of confidence, not desperation. Has early speed to put himself in good position, will just need to relax the horse and hold off the stampede in the end. #6 Hackberry is an improving 3YO with the op thorograph fig in this race and is a half to Dynatail, a 3x SW on turf routes. #3 Volubile has run in 3 races, all on the downhill turf, however, his breeding suggests the routing distances will be ideal. Half to Silentio, 2x SW router and sired by More than Ready. Was gelded in April and has logged a steady fitness work tab for Gary Mandella. Adds blinkers here, which I like with the combination of Blanc on board. #7 Farquhar has 2nd best top thorograph fig in this race with an “8” 3 races back has had troubled trips the last two out.He is also a half to Northern Passion a 4x SW in routes. #8 Ghost Street has upset potential at a big price with DVD on board in this stretch out for Gallagher, where his breeding suggests he belongs. Half to Miss Boom Boom, who won 8x and was a turf routing specialist. Finally, (yes, using all except 1,4,5) #2 Afleeting Life is a very likely huge price here with a relatively unknown trainer in Litt and an yawner of a debut 9 months ago. Half to Lucky Primo, a 3x SW on turf routes and Kingpin Ryno a 5x winner. Scored a “B” workout grade, agood sign off the layoff.
Race 5: 6.5 F Dirt Maiden Claiming $20k 3YO+
Projection: 10-6-4-1
Not a lot of pace signed up in this group of lower level maiden claimers, leaving the #10 My Way Out standing out to me here as the top pick. Andrew Lerner/ Fuentes combination has been a good one striking at 33% over 40 races together. Looks like the clear speed from the outside post, a great spot to be with speed at this distance. #6 Don’tteasethetiger has been a steady dropper before landing at this level as the favorite last out at Los Al, where he was dueled into submission in the stretch on the inside. Koriner and Maldando have teamed up for recent success and should sit a good trip right off the pace leader, but will need to outkick in the final 1/8. The cutback will help. #4 Crosstown exits his maiden voyage with the top thorograph fig but was gelded right after. Recent works have not been great, leaving some concerns, but with the top fig, the eq. chng, the drop from Md50, and now getting a major jockey upgrade with Prat will have to use against this group. #1 Lorelei’s Warrior is an interesting bomb, as this horse must be fit with this being his 3rd race in July following 6 works in May/ June leading up to the July debut. Has not showed much yet, but doesn’t catch a strong bunch here and with improvement would not be surprised to see a win at a big price.
May not have time for full write up on the late pick 5, however, some key plays for the back half of the card below. Best Bet is Air Strike in the Bing Crosby.
Race 6: Like a few prices led by #2 Mr. Brownstone (outstanding works on dirt, and confidently placed here following maiden turf win). #6 Clem Labine has best late kick of this bunch in a race with plenty of speed.
Race 7: I like the return to turf move here for Vibrance and Michael McCarthy is overdue. Top pick though is Great Return for DVD and Mandella. Working great and coming off a great effort in early June and one that should like the extra distance.
Race 8: So much speed here, normally would gravitate to the speed of the speed (Cistron) but not with how this track has been playing. Will be playing prices here, first with the late kick of Air Strike (4-1) who loves this DMR dirt and Line Judge (8-1) who could get first run on tiring foes who battle up front. If I were to take a shot on a speed horse, will be the 12/1 ML of Chief Cicatriz whose figs are just as good as the top flight here and has the best career fig of this bunch and you’ll be getting 15-1+ IMO.
Race 9: Like the #5 , debuter for Callahan who is working well and showing some evidence of late kick. Also interested in the #1 who gets moved up to the MSW level after a dull maiden claiming effort on dirt (sprint) when she took money. Will be a price today. Similar situation for #7 Thousand Dreams who should like the turf route condition.