Early Pick 5: 4,6/ 1,2/ 2,4,7,9,11/ 1 / 2,3,8
Race 1: 1M on Dirt, ALW $50k
Projection: 6-4-1
Top pick in the opener is #6 Tequila Sunrise from the outside post. Baltas broke through with two wins yesterday and now will be Gryder’s turn (0-8 start to the meet). This 4 YO filly has the top Thorograph fig in the race (8) and top Beyer. Like four others in this race moves up in class off a Maiden Claiming victory, with the other two (#3 and #4) remaining at this level where they have not finished within 3 lengths of the winner yet. Needless to say, this is not a great group for this level. #4 Dearborn is the other to consider in horizontals here as she should sit right off the pace from the #5 horse. Dirt is the question for this one as she has only run on an off track outside 9 Turf performances and his heavier on turf pedigree. Trainer is strong on the turf to dirt angle though at 24% $2.70 in 29 tries. Has sizzled in recent workouts including back to back 4F bullets in June. #2 and 3 are both 3YO’s vs. older here
Race 2: 6.5F on Dirt, OC62k
Projection: 1-2-4
Baffert off to a slow start this meet with no wins in 5 tries, but here comes one of his graded stakes types in #1 American Anthem. The big question is, what was with the regression in The Triple Bend Stakes last out in May? Although the trip notes don’t indicate it, that was far from a smooth trip against some very fast fractions. Was given a Near 2 month break but has been active on the work tab with 6 straight FAST works (graded B/ B+). Lots to love here BUT, this race is shaping up for another VERY fast pace, with all 5 runners with a 113+ early Timeform figure. In cases like this I normally look for the speed of the speed, as they make others into stalking horses where they are not accustomed to being, however, in this case the extra ½ furlong could spell trouble for #3 Adens Dream (top 121 early speed) whose only time trying 6.5F was on the downhill and still faded. The best late speed fig, and a horse that has won off the pace belongs to #2 American Pastime, who returns off a year layoff (trainer angle 21%) where the last two starts were the G1 Bing Crosby off a 8 month layoff from the G1 Breeders Cup Sprint. The lack of racing over a 2 year span is very concerning, but last time he ran at this level he won easily over this track. Also has strung together 6 straight recent works all 5-6F. I am going to bet he needs this one, especially with the pace condition. So this lands me back to where we started, top pick #1 American Anthem mowing them down late. I like Prat on board here for this tactic, just hope he has him close enough at the top of the stretch as this Del Mar short stretch can make it tough to pass late.
Race 3: 1M on Turf, CML40k
Projection: 11-9-4-2-7
First two races are pretty formful, but plenty of opportunity for a price here in race 3. Top pick is 9/2 ML #11 Contagian. On Dirt you want to be careful with outside posts at 1M here at Del Mar with the short run into the turn, but, on turf you get a little more distance to navigate position and with the early speed of the 11 should be able to sit right outside #7 Diamond Blitz on the lead. Drops down from losing by 3/4 at an OC80k level, losing to a good horse in Nolde who put up a strong 2nd in The Oceanside Stakes on opening day. #9 Collins Road invaded from the East Coast for his new barn with Doug O’Neil. This Quality Road 3YO has a top TG fig on turf of 11, matching a few others in here but gets Prat on board who has dominated the early part of this meet, and is best on turf routes. Good late kick for this one as well, with the best Timeform US late pace figure of this group at 91. #4 Loud Mouth has attempted to get on the green twice but has been washed off. On Synthetic at GG, has the top TG figure of this group (9) and has some big names in his running lines (One Bad Boy, Lieutenant Dan, Galilean). Will we see regression following the move out of the Hollendorfer barn? Hard to say, but the last two works at GG for Wong have been fast, where prior was being worked slow with Dorf. Wouldn’t leave off your horizontals. #2 First in Show is a price to include as well, as this one has been run 5F the last 3 out, yet the dam side shows some routing ability and now stretches out for the first time while getting Rosario. Glatt not good with sprint to route angle, but considering the Thorofig on turf matches the top in this race two back, and some evidence of route ability in bloodline, curious to see the effort here today.
Race 4: 1 1/6M on Dirt, San Diego Handicap Grade 2
Projection: 1 Single
#1 Catalina Cruiser tops my list for older dirt horses in the country. Will look to repeat The San Diego Handicap today and just don’t see anyone matching strides. Single.
Race 5: 6.5 F Dirt MSW61k
Projection: 8-3-2
With the single in the 4th, and short in the first two, all with short prices, would need to play the 5th here one of two ways. Single Blue Moonrise and punch the ticket 10x, or spread with some possible upsets. #8 Blue Moonrise has finished second in her last two, both in duels against good horses (last out in 1:09 for 3/4 . Gets a few changes today, first with Prat taking over for Talamo, second, the benefit of the outside post here so he doesn’t get caught in an inside duel (happened vs. Flor de la Mar 2 back), and workout reports have indicated she no longer has been showing the tail whip action in the lane. We may see a more settled and ready horse today. #2 Kelani Kim (10-1 ML) has been showing very well in the mornings, with a string of B+ works. Glatt not known for having them fully kranked first out (3% in last 36) so beware, but some clear ability with this one. #3 Sunny Dale has the most experience of this bunch and will be dirt sprinting for the first time. Daughter of a 2x SW Turf Router (Dam) and sired by Medaglia D’Oro you cant blame the turf route tries, but has really come alive on the dirt in the morning too. Shows good late kick so if there is one that will come to mo down Blue Moonrise, its her. Always beware of the other Baffert too, as #1 Shockingly Fast has also shown strong late kick in the AM following a flat debut. Should improve here quite a bit today and keeps Garcia aboard.