Early Pick 5’s:
2,3,6/9,10/1,2,4,5,7/1,4/1,2,11 ($90)
2,3,6/8,9,10/ ALL/4/1,2 ($108)
Late Pick 5’s:
3,5,6/7/ 2,3,5,7,11/7/1,4,7,9 ($2 base play) ($120)
3,5,6/4,5,6,7,8/2,5/ 7/ 1,4,5,7,8,9 ($135)
3,5,6,8,9/ 7/ 2,3,5,7,11/ 2,3,4,7/7,9 ($120)
Key Plays:
Race 1: Daily Double 2/9,10
Race 2: Trifecta: 9,10/ALL/9,10 and 9,10/8,9,10/ALL
Race 7: WPS #7 Tri 7/4,5,8
Race 8: WS #2, Trifecta 2,5/2,3,5,7,11
Race 9: Win #7 Double 7/ 7,9
Race 10: SH5: 7,9/4,7,9/ 1,4,7,9/1,4,5,7,9/1,4,5,7,8,9
Race 1: 1M Dirt – $8k CLM
Projection: 2-6-3
#2 Grey Admiral is an interesting one in here at 7/2 on the ML. Showed little in his last at this level here in DMR on 7/25 at 4-1, where he was between horses the first ¾ before fading and throwing in the towel. This effort could cause many to avoid in here, but there are a few things I like. First, he was claimed out of that race by Mulhall, who doesn’t run many down here, but appeared to have a plan as the first work following the race was a sizzling 46.2 4F work followed by two sharp 5F works where he will clearly be fit for today. Has won at this distance on both turf and dirt, and I like the combination of the noted fast bullet work with the Blinkers On addition today where he should be involved early, the same style in which he has won his two races. I think we get value here against a bad group. #6 Hard Arch is the second choice in here, as the pace scenario seems likely for the #2 and #3 to hook up on the front end. The best late kick of this bunch, and recent strong works with a 24 second final quarters show the late kick is still there. At the nd of last year this horse was putting up figs far superior to this bunch before some regression as a 5 year old. He is now well rested out of his Los Al start and Vallejo chooses Pena who together sport a lifetime 23% win rate and positive ROI. #3 For Him, the ML fav, should be tough at this level. I prefer the #2, but will need to include on tickets as this one will be prominent early, sees a slight cutback in distance which will help, and has shown tough gameness in the lane in the last two races. Only 4YO and only his 4th race of 2019, so still could be on the improve part of his cycle. In reading the work report details, seems this one has a hard time staying straight on the turn and in the lane.
Race 2: 6F Dirt- MDCLM $20k
Projection: 9-10-8
Another bad group here, as this bottom level maiden claiming race has a few that would be tough to make an argument for. As is clear from reading any of my breakdowns, the workout report is a key piece of handicapping info I utilize. Now, these reports are often scrutinized but its important to use them wisely in conjunction with your handicapping, not simply looking for strong grades and playing them. Read the notes, and understand the surface and distance impact of the race with what the work reads. Here for bottom level claimers going short on dirt, I find them especially important. In todays race on works alone, I am confident in eliminating 4 horses from consideration (2,3,6,7) as their works are telling of ones that are not going well or ready to compete. Top Pick is #9 Saddle Bar. Was running in $100k MSW races at CD in the spring against older before making the big drop down to MD40k last out at DMR on 7/28 where a slight bobble and bum at the start caused jock to rush him up to contention where he then felt outside pressure all the way to the turn before quitting and fading. Being drawn outside of the speed contenders today will help, along with being in with a softer group. Despite the fact he has not been ridden to the wire yet, has the second best figs. Full brother to Stone Hands who won at DMR and had a “4” Thorograph top on dirt routes. As much as I don’t like the big drops, this one may find his friends today at this level. #10 Floyd Moneymaker won’t stay at 12-1. Go back and watch the replay of this ones debut at Portland Meadows. Wow, the trip notes do not do this one justice at all. Was being strangled at the beginning of the race, made up ground along the rail, and then swung way wide (looked like 7 paths) before making a HUGE run late. I know the competition there is softer, but Val was confident enough to send this one to DMR and has been here working since before opening day. The strong of 5 strong works should have this one in shape and ready to fire today. Also note the 10 lb drop in weight being carried from last.
Race 3: 1M Turf- OC20K-N1X Cal Breds
Projection: 2-1-4-7
Spread race, could make an argument for 6 horses in here. The spotting of #4 Perfect Wager in this race is a bit of a head scratcher. No turf pedigree on either side and has always sprinted. Sire Elusive Warning is 0-18 with 1st time Turf runners as well. Is a half to 5x SW Solid Wager who put up a Thorograph top of “0” in routes, but never faired well on turf. But then they work Perfect Wager on the green on 8/15 with Stakes types (Tiny Tina and La Force) and he turns heads while kicking away late. Normally would be a toss with all these new things being tried, but may be sneaky in here for Mullins. Will use defensively. Top pick is #2 Golden Birthday who drops in from Stakes company for his third race of this meet. Had paired Thorograph tops of 7 (best in this group) before regressing in a race he was over his head in. Good candidate to bounce back here in company where he fits. Will be coming late with the #1 Push Through who was racing competitively against open company before returning here to Calbred restricted last out. Was not a big fan of the ride, as Mario kept him under a big hold until very late, a hold the horse was fighting, and then he showed some nice explosion. Another to consider, not only because its tough leaving Prat off your ticket in a turf route, but #7 I Can Do This is intriguing. Much like Perfect Wager, horse has little Turf Pedigree, as Empire Way babies are a horrid 1 for 56 on turf, but has solid thorograph figs on dirt “6” and is always in it (hot the board in 6 of 7 races this year). What Prat does well is putting his horses in position, and with solid TimeForm early and late figs, he has options on what kind of ride to take here with this 4-1 shot.
Race 4: 1M Dirt – MD50CLM
Projection: 4-6-1
I see this one being pretty formful. Top pick is the ML fav #4 Zorich. Another replay play is from the 10 post last out in his dirt debut broke outward a few paths and stayed wide throughout the race. Significant ground loss throughout, but showed a great move around the far turn to take hold of the lead. Despite the extra feet traveled, fought on to the end but was passed by a closer who got a clean trip. Without the wide post here, should sit mid pack or just off the leaders and with any ground saving should have plenty of late kick. #6 Micah Bay drops from MSW company, a move with a 24% strike rate for D’Amato and positive ROI. Another with late kick here, could look for the same type of run that beat Zorich in his race. Horse has a lot of sprint pedigree but Phil has kept him long, so clearly he has shown ability. #1 Babel is the speed threat, and gets an 11pd weight drop that should help in this two turn debut. Blinkers on (20% move for Ellis)from the #1 hole makes it pretty clear Ellis will look for a gate to wire effort here. Some speed contention here, but if he gets clear early and allowed to relax, we will see if the lighter load can make the difference to get him home.
Race 5: 1 1/16 Turf- MDCLM $25k
Projection: 2-1-11
Was tough for me to separate my top 3 picks here, the 1,2, and 11 but ended up on #2 Moonless Sky who drops from OC ranks as my top pick. I usually don’t put much stock in the jockey carousel, but here found it pretty interesting DVD chose the #2 over Sugary (#11) after two very solid races for Sugary. It’s not like DVD has a strong allegiance to Truman, so may be telling here that he sees more in this horse. Works have been best of this bunch, telling of improvement likely to come, especially at this softer level. Prat jumps on #1 Tammy’s Window following Rockingham’s claim of her from a $25k CLM race here on the grass on 7/31. In that trip Fuentes kept her wide throughout, not the trip you want on turf routes here. Will get blinkers today, and Miller is 27% off the claim of late. #11 Sugary had paired his top Thorograph figure despite the big spacing between races before getting another breather for 2 months. This kind of spacing usually has me nervous about soundness, but works have been consistent enough. Last time she saw this level resulted in a 7 length victory. Will again look to stalk and pounce.
Race 6: 6F Dirt – MD20k
Projection: 3-5-6
Another bad bunch here, can eliminate most of the field here and feel there are only 3 to consider and would use each.
Race 7: 5F- Turf- MSW $61k
Projection: 7—-4-8-5-6
Single/ Press play here with the #7 Greg’s Diva. Many in here debuting where this horse has had a lot of education in her first 2 races, both second place finishes. Work Notes state this horse moves like she will love the turf despite monster dirt works, and here we are today. Also like that the notes have her moving by or holding off well known fast horses (Lombo and Ruby Bradley). Gets jockey upgrade to Prat here as well. If you are looking underneath, I would look toward #4,5, and 8 before the likely favorite Éclair.
Race 8: 6.5F Dirt – OC40K N1X
Projection: 2-5-3-7-11
With the presence of Cruel Intention here, who I feel get a similar pace situation this race as the last couple where he was dueled into submission, I think we end up with some value opening up. Now he could be sitting on a big effort, as he has yet to pair his top from his 2YO season and this is the third race of this form cycle, but I will use others as top selections in here. #2 Cool Bobby has been a money burner for me, but has the late kick you want in this pace situation and seems to always be right there. I like the Blinkers OFF move (30% for Eurton) and the change to Mario. All adds up, and I see him flying late here. Talk about no respect for #5 Fashionably Fast who won impressively here by 5 ¾ on 7/27 despite being wide throughout. Steps up into open company today but continues to work well. Pairing figs from the last effort may be enough today but will need to sit just off the pace and sustain a late drive. #3 Royal Trump not getting much respect either at 8-1 and with works being on the slower side (not uncommon for Glatt) may see this drift up even further. Have not seen him since Santa Anita, but the dirt track is playing awfully similar to the late season there (deep) and both efforts in open company were good ones. Looking for a underneath horse on exotics for a price, I like #11 Heartfullofstars to be a potential factor at 20-1 or more.
Race 9: 7F DIrt – Grade 2 $200k Pat O’Brien Stakes
Projection: 7—-2-3-4
Great field here, but I am going to keep this simple and wont apologize for taking the chalk. I feel Catalina Cruiser may be the best in the country between 7-8.5F. Yes, I know that sounds bold with McKinzie, Mitole and Shancelot out there, but I have always been high on this horse. Being outside all of the speed in this race is a big advantage and if I can get anywhere close to even money, then I am happy. Underneath plays would be 2 (20-1 is a steal), 3, and 4.
Race 10: 1M Turf – ALW50k NW2X
Projection: 9-7-4-1
#9 Boru is the top pick here as there were a few things I really liked about the last effort. First and foremost, he learned how to rate and Desormeaux controlled him perfectly making a big middle move to take the lead and pull away. With the speed to the outside, important he does this again, and seeing Kent back up gives me that confidence. Has not finished worse than 3rd in his last 6, and see this $450k colt out of Curlin only set to continue improvement. #7 Hootie had an adventurous trip last out with Iggy, being checked twice but still running a decent Thorograph number. Numbers last year before being gelded were superior to these in here today, and with a clean trip last out could have faired much better. Value here on this one, and like the stalk and pounce running style along with the rider change. #4 Combat Zone for Sadler and Hronis with Prat on board should be tough. The connections alone will keep value down, as keep in mind this is a step up in class despite the 2nd place effort in a CLM32k race last out. But, the bobble at the start and wide start certainly cost this horse the neck difference in that one. Expect better on this one. #1 Tartini could be a late factor, and with his late kick, not concerned in drawing the 1 post. Drops from graded stakes and has had 2 months off, comes in off a bullet work and retains a jock that knows him well. Could get more than the 5-1 ML here, making him interesting for underneath exotics or if you can afford to spread in horizontals.
BONUS: Travers Pick: Mucho Gusto over Owendale, Code of Honor, and Tacitus
Best of luck!!