Pacific Classic Day 2019
Early Pick 5’s:
6/ 3,4,6,8/ 5,6/ 1,2,3,5,7/ 7,11,12 ($120)
1,4,6/ 3,8/ 2,5,6/ 1,2,3,5,7/ 7,12 ($90)
Key Plays:
Race 1: Daily Double 6 with 3,8
Race 4: Trifecta 1,7 over 1,2,3,5,7
Race 5: Win/Show #7 Succeedandsurpass
Race 6: Win/ Show #7 Bronn
Race 8: Keying #7 in Tri’s
Race 9: Win/Show #14 Hidden Message Daily Double 14/ 6
Race 10: Win/Show #6 Higher Power; Trifecta 6 over 2,5,9
Late Pick 5’s:
2,4,5/ 7 /1,5,10,11,12,14/ 2,5,6/ 2,7,8,13 ,14 ($135)
2,4,5/ 1,3,7/ 1,5,7,10,11,12,14/6/ 2,8,13 ($95)
Race 1: 1M Dirt – OC62k – NL2
Projection: 6-4-1
Lots of early speed entered here, will be very interesting to see which of these will get to the lead and if they can avoid getting in a stressful duel in this route. The 3,4, and 5 in here all have early Timeform US Speed Figures over 112 and when they win, they do so in gate to wire fashion. The #3 Tule Fog and #5 Fawree have not won when dealing with pace pressure, and the #4 Paladar will need to outbreak the 5 to get position and avoid being between runners. If Prat lets the 3 and the 5 go and battle (more likely as Prat rarely gets caught in an early pace duel), than Route Sixty Six will have the better position outside of him. I do not like any of these likely scenarios for these 3 horses, especially the way this deep track is playing. My top pick in here, and one that will be an early key play for me, is the outside horse #6 Route Sixty-Six for Brian Koriner and Talamo. I do not think I will get the 6-1 ML, but anything close to me is still big value here for a horse that has competed well at this level this year. Throw out the last race, in watching the replay his inside post and inability to get to the lead resulted in him feeling immense pressure, 2-3 horses on the outside while taking dirt for the majority of the race. Bu the time they hit the far turn, there was nothing left, leaving us with the value here today. Now, look two races back where he lost to Draft Pick (Pacific Classic Runner) by a neck in an OC80k in a thrilling stretch drive that had all four horses lined up when straightening out, and Route Sixty Six was between horses in the duel where he put away two, but could not hold off Draft Pick in the last jump. The outside post is key here, expecting Talamo to let early speed go and sit comfortably right off before making a move on the far turn. I think Major Cabbie is an intriguing horse and was super impressive for Peter Miller in his debut for him here 2 weeks back. I just am concerned with the post and the race shape here, as the this is another horse that gets confidence with being on the lead and struggles under pressure and I just don’t see him getting things his own way here against his group. Also major bounce candidate following a 9 point Thorograph improvement. Hard pass on California Journey, thought the OC40k group he won against was soft and as in much deeper water here today. He owns the highest beyer and thorgraph fig of this bunch, but in a much different pace scenario (24.4/ 48.5).
Race 2: 5.5F Dirt- MDCLM $150k – 2YO
Projection: 8-3-6-4
The secret may be out on the top pick #8 Orquidias Biz here following Leucothia’s romp on Thursday (exit the same Ellis Park race). When Mullins and Mike Smith team up they hit at 26% for a positive ROI of $2.44. Now in the aforementioned debut at Ellis, she drew the rail and got caught behind runners early, took a lot of dirt and swung too wide in the turn before looking erratic in the stretch. I am guessing the horse got a lot out of that race then got 5 works in since including a fast work 3 back before Mullins decided to ease her up a bit for the final 2 works, a good sign that she is fit and ready to fire and gets an improved outside position here today. #3 Seahawk Lisa had an impressive gate drill on 8/4 and this Hollendorfer filly gets Franco onboard (+ROI with Dorf). #4 Samurai Charm and #6 Paid Informant both have logged solid works and have breeding that’s suggests they will be competitive first time out. If this is a spread leg for you, or looking for underneath exotics, would use. Fun fact on #7 KP Whirlwind, Mullins/DVD connection is 8 for 17 lifetime on the win end, but use caution as Mullins is also only 9% with first time out 2 yr olds.
Race 3: 5F Turf- $100k Green Flash Stakes
Projection: 6-5-2
This little Grade 3 $100k stakes sure does have some star power with Stormy Liberal and Eddie Haskell matching up, but don’t sleep on Mr. Vargas. I can’t see any others winning here, so lets look at these three contenders. Top Pick is #6 Mr. Vargas who ran his eyeballs out on opening week with a sizzling 55.8 time, which was faster than Eddie Haskell’s a few days later (56.4) but here you get twice the odds (or better) in a more favorable post position. Also, will be third off the layoff, leaving me to believe there is further improvement possible here today. Now, #5 Eddie Haskell is simply remarkable, 6 of 7 on the DMR turf, won his last 6 at 5F on Turf, and is always right there at the end. If you are taking a stand here, I recommend doing it against Stormy Liberal, who comes in off a 4-month layoff, and is 0-3 in 2019, including a loss vs. Eddie Haskell. In the end, I see Mr. Vargas dueling with Calexman but having position, pulling away in the stretch from him and left to fend off Eddie H and Stormy who will be coming in a thriller. Note- I do not have stock in Jay Em Ess Racing 😊 (owners of my top selection in race 1 and here in race 3)
Race 4: 6F Dirt – OC20k- NL1
Projection: 7-1-2-5-3
As mentioned in the write up for race 2, Mullins is not one to have horses fully cranked for their debut race, but #7 Satanta impressed in his debut (as a 4YO) winning despite being 3-4 wide all the way around the track. He traveled the furthest distance of all horses in the race but still won by 5+ lengths. Taking the “Mullins races them into shape” theory, you have to think this one will be primed for further improvement here today, and again gets an ideal outside post. Oh, and don’t forget the Mullins/DVD angle (8 for 17 career). #1 Swiss Minister is a hard knocking vet, and I think we can get some value here for a horse that has the top speed figs in the race. The tag may scare some off, but this is a 6YO gelding and he raced with a tag last out as well. After winning his OC race in April of 2018, he went through the ringer with tough competition, losing his next three to Catalina Cruiser, Mr. Vargas, and Blitzkrieg…all graded stakes types. He came back to win in April at SA this year in an Allowance at todays distance before trying Golden Gate (tapeta), then an OC40 at 6.5 whih did not go well, then returned to thi level and distance at LosAl an was beaten by a neck. At the OC20, he belongs and should be feared, especially with a B+ work from 8/6 coming into this race. #2 Oliver drops in following 2 stakes tries, including a 2nd place finish to Lieutenant Dan. Doug O’Neill has confidently placed this horse in 4 stakes races and to OC50’s, making today the lowest level he has tried off his career top speed figure. Also intrigued by the two exiting race 6 on 7/27 at DMR. Watch the head on for the first furlong, quite the cluster and both #3 Mr. Brownstone and #5 Clem Labine were compromised. Love the recent works for Mr. Brownstone and the finish of Clem Labine, so two to include if you can afford going deep in the horizontals. Fun fact- Clem Labine was a pitcher for the Dodgers in the 50’s, appeared in 425 games.
Race 5: 1M Turf- MSW61k
Projection: 7-12-11
Back on July 27th I was excited and bullish on #7 Succeedandsurpass’s debut in North America for Little Red Feather and Baltas. Needless to say, I ended up disappointed as he failed to hit the board. I am coming right back here though with him as my top pick here today as we will see big improvement second time out. First off, look at the head on for the race, off a step slow, took early kick back before getting out widest of all until the stretch and then had to deal with a swerving Parsimony that appeared to cause Succeedandsurpass to alter lanes twice. Quite the education for his first race, and then comes out for his first work following and puts up a scorching 46.8 4F bullet work. Now we get a major upgrade to Johnny V. and his major threats are all well outside drawn (not ideal for the 1M into the first turn). #12 Mo Farza has hit the board in his first 3 races and has improved his speed figure each time out (best thorograph fig on turf of this bunch). I think the cutback to 1M today suits this horse well if he can replicate the stalk and pounce trip from last out, and with Prat aboard there is no one better on this coast in working out trips in Turf Routes. #11 Lambeau, the $475k purchase for Jerry Moss makes his debut following some lights out works that have people buzzing. Luckily, Shirreff’s reputation for first time starters may keep the odds and value attractive here (15-1 ML), but if you look closer at the last 3 firsters he has sent out, all hit the board and 2 were 10-1 or more. Great value for underneath.
Race 6: 6F Dirt – MSW 61k – 2YO’s
Projection: 7-5-6
I have really liked Collusion Illusion’s first two races, so to me, #7 Bronn here (finished 1 back of Collusion Illusion in their debuts) is the obvious standout. Owned by Jill Baffert, this massive colt showed early speed and dueled in debut. Now we get the ever effective “Blinkers Off” move in this one following the best works of this bunch. Especially like the finish in the last workout, finished in final quarter in 23.1. The other Baffert #5 Hydrogen has some big hype coming in as this $575k purchase for Starlight Racing et all, gets Johnny V aboard. Now, the works are not typical Baffert speed ball drills, but maybe this is some adaptation to the deeper tracks for his 2 YO’s as this one has been slow early with a big late kick (style that has won on this track often this meet). My price play here is #6 Ginobli, bet down to 5/2 in debut at LRC he never got into gear, but works have shown good flash of late. With only a handful having both experience and strong works in this one, at 12-1 is worth a shot and playable underneath for exotics. Will not use horizontally, but worth mentioning the $850k horse, #3 Honor A.P. for CRK Stables and John Shirreffs. His half sib won her debut for Shirreffs in June, but this won has the looks nd pedigree for longer distances and the workout reports are agreeing. This one should be for experience today, but mark this horse as one to watch moving forward.
Race 7: 1 3/8M Turf – Grade 2 $250k Del Mar Handicap
Projection: 5-4-2
The pace for this one is tough to figure out, as clearly we have some talented closers in this bunch but will there be enough speed up front to push fractions to what they need to get home? Hard to say if Acclimate and Ritzy AP will duel, or one gets an easy lead with the other sitting just off. I do not think Acclimate is good enough against this bunch, top fig wouldn’t win here today, and not much reason to think big improvement is coming. What I do know is, I will be taking a stand against the ML fav and shipper #6 The Great Day as his speed figs are not as strong as others in here with higher odds and I am not convinced this 5 year old is sitting on a race with big improvement over The Arlington Handicap. My top pick is going to be #5 United, as this 4 YO gelding keeps improving and will be running 2nd off a short layoff (following a win on opening day). 2 back lost by ¾ to Markie’s Water but had clipped heels with a rival on the dirt crossing in the lane. With Prat navigating, should be in good mid-pack position in what could be a strung out field to get a clear run at the 2 pacesetters. #4 Markie’s Water should love this distance, and wow can he fly home. Best fig on the grass amongst this group and if there is any pace to run at, look out. Hard to say if Itsinthepost can reverse form at 7YO, as the top fig was a year ago and has since regressed. #2 Ritzy AP will be used on some horizontal and underneath exotics due to the possibility of him being able to go gate to wire, or swing outside of Acclimate on the backstretch to take command. If the fractions are slow in either of those cases, he has a shot to win. Third off the layoff and Blacker recently stating he has been thriving down at Del Mar.
Race 8: 1M Dirt – Grade 3 $100k Torrey Pines- 3YO Fillies
Projection: 7-1-3
Draw for this race is interesting as the 3 major early speed contenders are outside. Also interesting is looking at the workout reports for #7 Fighting Mad is the strong finish to her 5F works, coming home in 23.0. She has also proved to not need to be on the lead to win, so if Talamo can work out a trip where he lets the 6 and 8 go, and he sits just off, it would be ideal. In her 2nd place finish in this meet, she lost to Lady Ninja, a solid stakes caliber horse, with that race run less than a half second slower than Cistron’s Grade 1-win victory. #1 Into Chocolate and #3 Classic Fit should be included as well with the likelihood of a hot pace. These two can come from just off it for a price.
Race 9: 1 1/8M Turf – Grade 1 $300k Del Mar Oaks
Projection: 14-11-5-1
Wow, what a field, what a betting race. I think this is where many take a stand with Cambier Parc, but I will not be in that group, as I see this as a race that could potentially position someone for a big score in horizontals. Top pick is far outside in #14 Hidden Message, but again, we trust in Prat to navigate the horse into a nice midpack stalking trip. Love the recent works, improving Timeform figs and the fact she will get first time Lasix. Prat chooses over Mucho Unusual who has won 3 straight. #11 Lady Prancelot is 2 for 4 on the year, and has hit the board in all four. This horse was good enough to run in the Juvenile Filly Turf Breeders Cup Race and has not disappointed since. Belongs here and is coming in off a freshening with 5 solid works under her belt, should be fresh and ready to fire. #5 Raymundos Secret is taking a huge leap up in class here and should sit close off the pace. Love the recent work notes about her monster late kick, with so many closing from midpack or far back in here, could have a clean run at 10-1 or better. If you have been a bettor of #12 Out of Balance, today is the day you finally get a price with her. Consistently bet down and very talented with a huge late kick has not found the best of trips but has hit the board in 6 of 9 races. If she gets a clean trip, there is little separating her talent and figs from the rest of this group and you get 20-1. #10 Mucho Unusual is a cool horse, has won 3 in a row in very different styles and now gets Mike Smith aboard. #1 Cambier Parc, listen, I’ll use still as this horse is still dangerous, but in terms of value there is a lot to love in this race.
Race 10: 1 1/4M Dirt – Grade 1 $1M Pacific Classic
Projection: 6-2-5-9
Anyone saying this race is lacking quality really needs to look at the sheets, as we have a few horses in here with some serious numbers and in the end, we have quite the betting race. No issue at all with this field. I was really pulling for Catalina Cruiser to make this field and pave the way to the Classic, but looks like shorter is the plan. On top of that, Hronis/Sadler may feel they have a Classic contender regardless in here already so why not start to plan out winning paths for the others. And, since they win all the stakes races in Del Mar anyways (ok, an exaggeration, but feels like it) my top pick is #6 Higher Power. I do not see this horse getting a ton of play, as I would imagine most action will go towards the shippers, but man o man do I like this horse for tomorrow. Lets start with the replay of the Grade 1 Gold Cup. What kind of early ride was that from Irad? Despite the odd ride, still put up a figure that fits here today and has continued to look better in each start since. Now, I’m not going to pretend to know why they tried Turf twice and now come back to another Grade 1 on dirt, but this horse has been the most impressive worker at Del Mar on the dirt in recent weeks. Higher Power is a half to 6x Stakes Winner on dirt routes, AIternation. I like his versatility, as he does not need the lead but should be close enough as outside of Quip there are few in here that look to push the pace, and still has a strong late kick. Will also use the shippers in here #2 Quip and #5 Seeking the Soul, as their figs are better than the rest and these are two horses with light campaigns so far this year who should be fresh and ready. Would not leave out #9 Mongolian Groom from you exotics for underneath, hard trying horse that is very consistent on dirt and underrated.
Race 11: 1 1/16M Turf – OC40k- NL1
Projection: 8-13-2-14-7
Short and sweet to end the day. Should be a lot of pace to run at here and on these turf routes, its been tough to win on or near the lead early. Salsa Bella for Lerner and Desert Oasis are standouts to me, but Victoria Oliver can certainly bring upset potential with the #2. Curious to see how Super Patriot reacts to the trainer change, and we all know Gallagher can win with 1st time NA runners (#7).
Best of luck!!