Welcome to Del Mar! We missed opening weekend, but we are back today to cover this Friday’s action. We had good success over the summer at Del Mar, posting 40% winners with a $2.43 ROI. Let’s hope to keep that trend rolling today!
Last week: NA
Del Mar 2019: 40% (14/35 win, 27/35 ITM) $2.43 ROI per $2 win bet ($70 wagered, $85.20 returned)
Race 1: Clm 40000 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 5-6-4-3
#5 Swamp Souffle was a top pick in the October 25 write-up at Santa Anita and delivered for us, getting home at a juicy price of 7-1. We are going to go back to the well today and see if Swamp Souffle can make it two wins in a row. There are 2-3 horses in this field who need the lead to do their best running, so I’m expecting a fairly hot pace. Swamp Souffle has enough tactical speed to get involved early and sit off the dueling front-runners, and Bill Spawr is having a great start to the meet with 2 winners from 5 starters already. Somewhat peculiar to see the drop in class after posting a win against better, but this horse showed no signs of slowing down last out and will be tough to beat with a repeat performance of his last. #6 Of Good Report is another who figures to benefit from a hot pace up front. This 3-year-old gelding was racing in over his head for most of the Del Mar summer, but he finally broke through with a win when dropped to a more realistic level on August 28th. He failed to fire last out in his first start for Cerin, but maybe 9 furlongs is a little too far and this flat mile will suit better. #4 Hartel is the current morning line favorite, but he is one I want to play heavily against. While it’s always dangerous to go against Peter Miller on grass, this one was beaten by weaker last out and only has 1 win from 12 starts. While he may truly be the speed of the speed here, he nevertheless has other pace to contend with in this spot. Definitely a use underneath for exotics, but at 2/1 I’ll look elsewhere for horses to use on top.
Race 2: [F]Clm 8000 1 Mile
Picks: 6-4-3-1
The second race of the day presents a unique challenge as none of these horses have shown much if any early speed in their careers. While Love of Art is undoubtedly the horse to beat, I’m going to lean on #6 Conformation in this spot. The overall record may not be pretty, but note that this filly is 4-2-0-1 racing over a fast track, including a record of 4-2-1-1 at the distance and a win over the local track. While her pedigree screams turf, this miss clearly prefers the dirt. She does move up in class after graduating from N2L company last out, but there is a decent chance here that she makes the lead in a race that will certainly favor horses who are forwardly placed. The pace setup is murky at best, but I think this filly making her second start after a freshening could be ready to fire a career effort. As mentioned earlier, #4 Love of Art is the one to beat here. She owns speed figures better than what most of this field typically runs, and she has beaten a number of today’s foes before. Biggest knock on her is that her last two wins have come at Los Alamitos and at Pleasanton, not exactly the same field quality as Del Mar. She is a likely winner, but she is tough to love at a short price without much pace to run after. #3 Majestic Diva is another who may threaten early speed in this paceless affair. She would need to turn the tables on the rival to her immediate outside, but with an aggressive ride she could prove difficult to run down if other potential horses let her get loose and she gets bold on the front end.
Race 3: [F]Mdn 52k 5 Furlongs (T)
Picks: 5-4-3-1
#5 Aqua Seaform Shame enters this race as the most experienced filly with 2 starts under her belt, assuming the AEs don’t draw in, and she winds up as the top pick. She has early speed, an advantage that cannot be overstated in juvenile turf sprints. Kantharos offspring excel on turf, firing at 16% first time trying turf, and Baltas is 19% when switching from dirt to turf. She actually gets a class drop here as she tried stakes company last out; note that the horse that defeated her in her maiden race came back to blast the field by 5 lengths in the subsequent stakes race. Look for her to get involved early and try to hold them off late. #4 Beguiled is an interesting first-time starter for Phil D’Amato. Daughter of Orb (9% first time turf) should have no problem with the surface, as her dam has produced 3 turf winners from 8 starters. Cedillo started his meet with a bang, going 3/7 (43%) on opening weekend. Have to wonder if this one will be better suited for two turns, but she looms a threat here regardless. #3 Del Mar Drama may be one of the longest prices on the board, but this filly interests me a bit. Dam was a stakes winner on turf, and Shackleford offspring typically do well on grass as well. She has peppered some quick works in the morning at Los Alamitos, indicating she may have substantial early speed, which is a huge asset in these 5-furlong dashes. One to consider in a spread race.
Race 4: [F]Alw 32000s
Picks: 3-7-6-1
#3 D’s Lovely Sophia is a lightly raced three-year-old who has never been out of the money in 4 starts on dirt. They tried her on turf last time, and she didn’t embarrass herself running fourth by 2 lengths, but dirt always seemed to be where she was going to excel. She has enough early speed to take the lead if Eswan wants it, but she also can rate and sit off the pace depending how the race unfolds. Her speed figures, early pace, and versatility make her a dangerous player against this bunch. #7 Rizzi’s Honors returns to a track she loves, as she owns a perfect 2 for 2 record at Del Mar. The waters here are much deeper than what she was racing against in the low-level claimers, but she caught a relatively soft field and gets a favorable outside draw. Don’t sell too short. #6 Tizanillusion would be a runaway winner if she ran back to her figure from January 27th. However, there was a voided claim that day, and she subsequently has had trouble getting back on the racetrack with numerous breaks in between starts and decreasing speed figures ever since that big effort. While it’s encouraging that Sadler elects to run her in a starter allowance rather than dump her for a tag, one has to wonder if this career turfer is really going to be able to replicate that freak effort as a mare going on 7 years old.
Race 5: [F]Clm 25000n2L 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 4-1-9-2
The 5th race of the day brings a group of 10 fillies and mares going a mile on the turf. While there are a number of horses here who figure logical on top, I’m going to take a chance on a bomb with #4 Leading Indicator. This 3-year-old filly has only raced over the dirt so far, but based on her pedigree I get the impression she may be better on grass. Clubhouse Ride progeny fire at an absurd 25% first time on turf, albeit with a smaller sample size, but it appears Clubhouse Ride has inherited his father’s (Candy Ride) strong turf influence on his offspring. The dam, Logical Single, was a stakes winner on turf. Her speed figures on dirt are respectable, and you can forgive her only route when stuck inside on a dead rail at Del mar. If she translates that form to turf on the class drop from starter allowance to claiming N2L company she could prove dangerous at a big price. Don’t overlook. #1 Red Bunting hasn’t exactly panned out the way connections had hoped, and she now drops to the lowest level of her career. Still, there is reason to be optimistic here, as there are a number of horses entered who want the lead so a quick pace is likely. This deep closer will need a lot of help in front of her, but Drayden sees fit to stay and she may get the right setup for her late kick. #9 Flying to the Line is arguably the fastest horse in this field, but she gets stuck with a far outside draw and quite a bit of other speed entered to her inside. She arguably is good enough to clear, make the lead and never look back, but it feels like this race sets up better for an inside drawn horse coming from a bit off the pace.
Race 6: MC 50000 1 Mile
Picks: 2-3-5-7
#2 Temple Bar showed enough promise when second at this level 2 starts back that his connections elected to try him at the maiden special weight level next out. That experiment didn’t go quite as planned, as he returns for a tag here. He has early speed to be dangerous although stretching out around two turns is still a question mark for him, as it is for most of this field. If you don’t normally follow SoCal racing, Figueroa was a dominant rider last year until taking time off over the summer, possibly for injury, and he has jumped straight back into his winning ways posting a record of 7-3-2-0 over opening weekend. You won’t get many prices on his mounts for long, so take advantage while you can. #3 Stackin Silver was in much too tough against straight maidens in his debut, and drops in for the tag today. Baltas rarely has his horses fully cranked at first asking, and that debut effort wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper as he broke slow and was never really involved in the race. With Union Rags on top and Fusacichi Pegasus on bottom, I think this one will relish the added ground, and it’s encouraging that Cedillo retains the mount. #5 Going to Vegas has run second in each of his first 2 career starts, both at this level, but he needs to improve off those efforts to take home top honors here. Miller knows how to get them ready, and this one will be sending hard from the onset and might take them all the way.
Race 7: [F][S]OC 20000n1x 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 3-7-8-1
#3 Rose Dunn appears to be the lone frontrunner in this turf route that is surprisingly devoid of much early speed. Always dangerous turf ace Prat is in the irons, and she wasn’t beaten much last time at a similar level. While I’m not sure she is best going two turns, she inherits a very favorable pace scenario and already owns speed figures to make her competitive here. The pick. #7 Lucky Ms Jones had a bad break, getting squeezed at the start last out, and made a respectable rally to get up for fourth, less than half a length from the second-place finisher. While she doesn’t project to get a ton of pace in front of her, she does have deceptively good early speed if you ignore the sprints, and if she gets a cleaner break she could prove dangerous. #8 Magnificent Q T attended a moderate pace last out and ran evenly to hold on for second, but she was no real threat to the winner that day. She actually does not have a turf win to her name yet, but she’s hit the board twice and now makes her second start for sharp claiming trainer O’Neill. If she displays the same early pace she showed last out she could be a player here, but others entice a bit more.
Race 8: [S]Mdn 52k 5½ Furlongs
Picks: 9-3-1-5
#9 Grandpa Louie has run second in both of his dirt tries before trying turf last out and finding it wasn’t quite to his liking. Back to dirt today, this one has ample early speed from the gate and an advantageous outside draw that gives his rider options. The horse who beaten him 2 back, Lieutenant Dan, has gone on to win 4 times, including a few restricted stakes races. Note that Grandpa Louie actually beat lieutenant dan in his debut and was favored in that next race. While there are a few interested first time starters, I’m inclined to lean on the more proven Grandpa Louie. #3 Tigre Di Slugo is the most promising of all first-time starters. By one of California’s hottest sires Smiling Tiger (13% first time winners), this colt attracts top pilot Prat to take the mount, just one of his two mounts for the entire day. Prat and Puype are 3/6 when teaming up together over the last 60 days with a $4.13 ROI. Curious that this horse is only making his first start in November of his 4-year-old season, suggesting there may be some soundness issues at play. Could be any sort. #1 Acapulco Bay is one who will be completely overlooked in the betting, but the others in here aren’t particularly enticing and this first-time starter piques my interest. Smiling Tiger is a strong California debut sire, as covered above, and Dean Greenman has had success in limited action at the maiden special weight level in the past. Old school trainer has given this one an interesting work tab, alternating 4f blowout drills with 5f maintenance moves. The rail draw does him no favors, but at a massive price this one may be worth considering underneath in your exotics.