It’s Breeders’ Cup Friday! Our contributors have gotten together and handicapped a Breeders’ Cup race of their choosing, and are sharing their analysis right here, for free. The first Breeders’ Cup race of the afternoon is the Juvenile Turf Sprint, scheduled as race 5.
Best of luck to everyone playing along!
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BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
by Eric Walker
And we are off for Breeders Cup 2018! To kick it off BC 2018 we start with the newly added Juvenile Sprint. This is a race that looks to be controlled by the Europeans as they are deeply seasoned versus many Americans who are still trying to figure things out. Of the Aiden O’Brien entries, 8 Sergei Prokofiev is likely to go forward as one of the top choices in this race on the totes. I want to take his stablemate the 10 So Perfect, he will go in at double digit odds and has run very strong races throughout his career and always gives a good account of herself and is bred by the late great Scat Daddy. The other Euro to keep an eye on is the one from the outside post, the 12 Pocket Dynamo who was bottled up last time out and had nowhere to run. There are some races in the running line that make this one very fitting and a possible upsetter at 20-1. Of the Euros I will land on my top choice, the 2 Soldier’s Call this horse faces older last time and really made a strong account of himself, he pressed and held on for third a neck. For a young horse who has ran some classy races, ownership running him versus older exudes confidence in this horse.
A: 2 Soldiers Call
B: 10 So Perfect
C: 12 Pocket Dynamo
@augustus_neil=2-10-6
@jeffbyrnes96=9-1-7
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
by Mike McEntire
6-1-9-10
One of the most talked about horses in this year’s Breeders’ Cup races is Chad Brown’s #6 Newspaperofrecord. In both career races, this filly has been nothing short of brilliant and visually impressive, winning both races by daylight. I would love to find any reason to take a shot against her as she will surely be bet down from her morning line favoritism of 2/1, but I honestly can’t. She has easily controlled both of her races under Irad Ortiz and has proven to like yielding turf, which she is likely to get today after the rains in Louisville. Brown has spaced her races nicely and kept her workout tab consistent since she made her debut in August. Sometimes you just can’t beat the favorite.
If I was to take a stab against her, I would lean on #1 Concrete Rose. The Rose is also undefeated in her two career starts for George Arnold and Jose Lezcano. Concrete Rose could have some hidden talent as she was bottled up for a bit in the Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland before she turned loose her devastating turn of foot on the field in the stretch, winning by a widening three lengths at the wire. If she can get forwardly placed out of the gate today, she could cause a little tension for Newspaperofrecord.
#9 Varenka has yet to break her maiden for Graham Motion in three career in-the-money starts, but she has flashed some talent as well. She finished second six lengths behind Newspaperofrecord in her last race, but she was almost two lengths clear of third place finisher #7 Stellar Agent. Varenka has the looks of a horse that is developing her closing kick and she could be in the mix if a pace duel develops on the front end today. Though she picks up Jose Ortiz for today’s race, I am a little hesitant about the inference of Johnny V jumping off for #10 Pakhet. Velazquez has ridden Pakhet in her last two starts for Todd Pletcher and he apparently chooses her over Varenka. Pakhet finished a nice second three lengths behind Concrete Rose in the Jessamine, but never really closed into the lead. She could easily improve today and she should be a nice price.
Of the European horses, #14 East is the only horse I have any real interest including in my deep exotics. Trainer Kevin Ryan gives this undefeated filly her first dose of Lasix for today’s race and she should relish the stretching out as she is out of Frankel (Galileo). East has won both of her races on soft/good turf, so I have to respect her a little more considering those are the conditions we are likely to get today. We won’t get anywhere near the morning line of 20/1 on her, but I’m not exactly pumped about her starting from the 14 hole. If she would have drawn more inside, I would have likely had her in my top four.
It’s a little hard to ignore an Aiden O’Brien horse, but that is exactly what I am going to do with #4 Just Wonderful. She is out of Dansili, whose babies seem to prefer a firm turf and she is highly unlikely to get that after all of the rain in Louisville. Though she has won three of her six races, she has been a bit goofy so far in her career and she could use some seasoning.
@augustus_neil=2-5-3
@jeffbyrnes96= 4-6-12
JUVENILE FILLIES
by Neil Petrocelli
4 – Restless Rider
3 – Vibrance
10 – Bellafina
8 – Sippican Harbor
In a race filled with fillies with potential, it’s hard to throw any out. That said, there are a couple that we will toss including Baby Nina (a Looch fan, but now with my $); Cassies Dreamer (hasn’t leaped forward yet); and Splashy Kisses (someone had to be second…Jaywalk (pedigree says one turn, until she wins at 2 turns). That leaves us 5 fillies to choose from:
Restless Rider – has the improving figures you hope to see this time of year…the progression from the Spinaway to Alciabides (around two turns) indicates that there may be another progression ready to happen. Stays undefeated at Churchill.
Vibrance – think she ran against her grain battling early with Bellafina in her last. Believe she wants to sit and finish – and this race sets up that way. Like the Beyer progression, breeding to suggest distance not a problem, works better than solid. Believe she sits 4th and 5th a few lengths off and picks up a few in the lane.
Bellafina – hard, very hard to fault, but will based on the previous backward figure move at Del Mar, the travel, new surface, and expected pace pressure from Serengeti Empress & Jaywalk. Hasn’t shown she can ‘lay off’ and close to win. Think she gets the better of Serengeti Empress, but loses the war. Note: outside post doesn’t hurt as much you’d think as 4-5 inside of her want to drop back – don’t let the post stop you if you like her.
Sippican Harbor – With the Spinaway win, the racing Gods smiled on Contessa, or perhaps is was the spirit of the Partridge Family. (Contessa spread good friend, David Cassidy’s ashes at Saratoga the morning of the Spinaway). Been pointing to this race since, work pattern is sneaky good, steady.
Serengeti Empress – she’s either a freak, or she’s not – betting she’s not.
@jeffbyrnes96=10-4-2
JUVENILE TURF
by John Piassek
5, Line of Duty: He’s coming off an impressive win at 1 1/8 miles in France over soft going, so the turf condition should not be any problem for him. First-time Lasix is always a potent angle, and he looks like a horse who’s coming in here on an improving form cycle. He’ll be a steal if he’s near his 10/1 morning line.
4, Forty Under: The best of the Americans, in my opinion. He showed a good closing kick in his last race to run down Somelikeithotbrown, who is also in this race and isn’t a slouch himself. His brisnet figure of 93 is the best figure any of the Americans have earned in their careers.
14, Anthony Van Dyck: He’s the tepid morning line favorite, but would probably be a heavier favorite if he didn’t get the far outside post. He’s group-1 placed twice in Europe, and is trained by Aiden O’Brien, who sent all his horses to the track in a line yesterday. If I understand correctly, that automatically makes him a training genius.
@augustus_neil=5-14-4
@jeffbyrnes96=12-6-10
JUVENILE
by Jeff Byrnes
@augustus_neil=9-1-14