Churchill Downs Saturday September 21, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves confetti, Confucius, cold coffee, and Covfefe. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 12:45 post – MC 10000 6 F 3YO&Up
8-7-1-3
If you are willing to draw a line through the last effort of #1 Jumpin Thru Hoops, this Peter Miller runner is actually quite usable. His 9/1/19 Ellis Park race was a return to the track after almost five months, so an excuse is in order, but the precipitous drop down the ladder to this MC 10000 level is a huge concern as Gary Barber is willing to let this $190K purchase go for pennies on the dollar. I’ll pass at these odds. #7 Plug and Play is also taking a huge plunge down the ladder for Steve Asmussen, but at least this runner is a home-bred for Calumet Farm. Asmussen has given him a couple months off after his 6/16/19 race before returning him to the workout tab in August. The five morning workouts has been pretty non-descript, but at least they are evenly-spaced and consistent. He could win, but his price will likely be poor for these connections. At the ML of 10/1, #8 Vencedora is of great interest to me. Trainer Helen Pitts started this runner in a realistic spot and has gradually taken a couple steps down the claiming ranks looking for graduation. This gelding flashed a little late foot in his last race on 7/4/19 to pick up second place at Ellis Park and it won’t take much improvement for this gelding to get his picture taken today. I am a little concerned by the break in training for the entire month of August, but I am willing to look past it at this level of race.
Race Two: 1:14 post – Claiming 30000n2L 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
2-5-1-4
This small field of $30000 claimers is extremely evenly-matched and I really could make a case for any of these. I wanted #3 Ready Orb Not as my top pick, but she was nabbed in the early scratches. #2 Social Circle lost Corey Lanerie to the scratched horse, so I am not extremely excited about taking her on top in a wide-open, short field. Tyler Baze is no slouch and her effort against better here at Churchill Downs on 5/25/19 is probably good enough. #5 Blunt Force showed some improvement while graduating at the Pea Patch on 7/28/19. I normally don’t like playing MC winners back the next race against winners, but this one deserves a look as she looked great while graduating.
Race Three: 1:43 post – MC 150000 6 1/2 F 2YO Fillies
6-1-8-9
A great deal of mystery shrouds this race as five of these nine horses are first time starters. Some tote board watching may be required to determine the chances of these baby girls, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Joe Sharp’s #8 Black Kat Taps take some money. Sharp has worked her three times from the gate three times over a series of 5F jaunts in the morning. If she is keen, it won’t take much to be in the mix. The ML favorite is Brad Cox’s #1 Evil Lyn who closed as the post-time favorite on 8/25/19 at Ellis Park against a very good Portrait. She set a pretty contentious pace before folding down the lane, but no one was catching Portrait that day. She could wire them today, but I can’t swallow her expected price. Dale Romans gives #6 Tetrahydro a snoot-full of Lasix for her second race, but she should get more improvement from a cleaner trip than the medication. She had a bad start in her 9/15/19 Saratoga debut and never got in the race and her two workouts since that debacle are nothing short of spectacular.
Race Four: 2:14 post – Claiming 40000 6 1/2 F 2YO Fillies
7-3-1-5
A small field of graduated 2YO fillies have signed on for this $40000 claimer at 6 1/2 F. #1 Street Flyer lost a stretch duel at Belterra on 8/25/19 after unsuccessfully trying a turf stake at Monmouth. She attracts the services of Miguel Mena and is certainly worth a look, but I like her underneath more than on top. #3 Fed Policy got her picture taken for trainer William Bradley three weeks ago at Ellis Park in a MC 30000. Edgar Morales stays aboard for the fourth straight race, but she’s switching to the main track for the first time today. If she takes to the dirt, she has a big shot. Speaking of surface change, trainer Eddie Kenneally moves #7 Pick Up the Fone back to the main track after picking up second place money in an Indiana turf allowance race on 8/16/19. Her two August workouts at Churchill Downs were plenty sgood enough to keep her sharp and getting Corey Lanerie, who jumps off the #5, back in the irons won’t hurt her chances.
Race Five: 2:45 post – MC 30000 6 1/2 F 2YO
11-3-2-12
This MC $30000 for baby boys attracted an overflow field of sixteen runners, six of them first time starters. I normally like to handicap a juvenile race with several unknown shooters by identifying the best FTS and the best known commodity in the race. Trainer Philip Sims only wins at 8% with his FTS, but #2 Game Set and Match looks ready to roll today. He has a long string of workouts dating back to the middle of June and the 8/31/19 breeze from the gate indicates that he may be a huge threat today. It almost feels like Sims might be hiding him a bit by the performance of the last two works and getting Tyler Baze surely signifies that he has some talent, even though he debuts for a tag. Norm Casse fires 13% with his FTS and #3 Naughty Alfred, much like the #2, has flashed some morning talent as well. His sire Munnings wins at 16% with his babies and his momma has thrown a winner in her only runner to make it to the track. Alfred should be a shorter price than the #2 because of the connections and jockey Ricardo Santana, but he could win at first asking as well. I will be using those two unraced runners in my horizontals. The known runners all seem pretty average, so I would like to find a runner with reasons to improve. #11 Kentucky Peerless drops into the claiming ranks after two failed attempts in MSWs for trainer Ben Colebrook. Corey Lanerie takes the reins after getting the ultimate equipment change. If the snip and crack work, he’s a player. #12 Archrival was claimed away from China Horse Club two weeks ago and trainer Bentley Combs moves him up the ranks. Combs is 21% first after the claim, but the workout lines don’t show a published work since the barn change. He ran a decent second at Indiana and could be a factor, but I honestly would feel a little better if he attracted a more regularly-used jockey than Jack Gilligan.
Race Six: 3:16 post – OC 10000 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up F&M
9-1-5-10
#1 Unfading Beauty has run a couple of clunkers since she romped against better on 5/1/19 here at Churchill. Her running lines are dirtied up a bit because the muddy effort and the turf race at Indiana, so we could get some value. She is 8/11 ITM with two of her three career wins under the Twin Spires and the last jockey to win on this Greg Foley mare is back aboard today. #5 Desert Image is about as honest as they come as this 7YO is running her 44th race today. Joe Sharp thought enough of her to try a huge allowance race at Kentucky Downs two weeks ago where she ran last, if you could even call that running. The switch back to the main track means something today as she has done most of her best running on the sod, so perhaps she is just rank and ready and Sharp couldn’t find a race as she isn’t in for a tag. In a wide-open race where I can’t really eliminate many, I’ll take track favorite #9 Myositis Mystique. She ran on the turf at Ellis Park a couple of months ago and returns to a turf sprint today. Greg Foley has had her pretty sharp this year if you can draw a line through the last.
Race Seven: 3:48 post – MC 30000 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
5-4-7-3
The ML favorite in this MC 30000 sprint is Steve Asmussen’s #7 Gun Club. This $480K KeeSep 2017 purchase is offered for a tag for the first time today by Winchell Thoroughbreds. She has made the lead in four of her five career races, but has yet to close the deal as she always fades down the stretch. Sure, she could win against weaker horses, but there appears to be a little more pace signed on today and I’m not so sure Ricardo Santana gets an easy, uncontested lead. I will try to beat the chalk. #4 Sweet Addison has been honestly placed by Brendan Walsh throughout her career and she returns to the claiming ranks after a MSW attempt in her last race on 7/30/19 at Indiana. She has had three pretty decent workouts during her time away from the track and she figures today and she might even go off as the favorite. I am going to take a stab with #5 Paigely. There is no way this Ian Wilkes runner is as bad as her 8/30/19 Ellis Park race where she finished thirteen lengths out as the post time favorite. As the lone 4YO in this race, she should have a little more maturity than the rest of the field and her lone Churchill Downs try two races back was almost good enough at this level. If we can beat the two favorites Gun Club and Sweet Addison, we should get paid.
Race Eight: 4:21 post – OC 62500n2x 1 1/8 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
2-1-10-5
I’m not so sure that #2 Bemma’s Boy is as good as his romp at Saratoga on 8/21/19, but I’d be thrilled to get 5/1 on him to find out. Trainer Mike Maker has certainly improved this horse since being claimed on 5/30/19 and switching back to the sod. Joe Sharp’s #1 Cape Angel also ran credibly at Saratoga, but at a higher level than Bemma’s Boy. He continues to do his thing by routing on the turf and I expect him to be in the mix at the wire. I keep waiting for 3YO #10 Louder Than Bombs to show some improvement on his 2YO results, but he hasn’t really taken a step forward. He certainly has the most back class, but he always seems to underachieve. His 9/11/19 workout is uncharacteristically good for a David Fawkes runner and he does get Ricardo Santana, Jr. for the first time, so there is some hope for improvement, I just don’t know if he’s good enough to take down the top two. #5 He’s Cheeky flashed some talent in his nice allowance win at Kentucky Downs on 8/31/19. A step forward makes him a threat for Larry Rivelli, but I don’t know if he is likely to improve enough off of his career best race.
Race Nine: 4:53 post – OC 75000n2L 6 F 2YO Fillies
5-11-3-4
This OC $75000 for baby girls is chock full of some early-winning fillies with a ton of early speed. #11 Josie has arguably been the flashiest before she ran into a very good Lady Glamour in her last race. Was Lady Glamour just too good or did Brad Cox’s Josie take a step back. She’ll likely go to the lead, but #4 Judy’s Way isn’t too likely to let her go. Judy’s Way romped in her debut at Arlington Park and if she can take to the dirt, she’ll have a lot to say about the outcome of this race. I like Jimmy Graham taking the mount for this Carlos Silva runner. Silva doesn’t run many here at Churchill Downs, so I expect she is well-intentioned. The same thing can be said for Kelly Von Hemel’s Prairie Meadows shipper #3 Banker’s Candy. She smoked a MSW field on 7/28/19 and jockey Glenn Corbett makes the trip with her today and her three August workouts are no joke. At 10/1 on the ML, she’s worth a look. #5 Wasabi Girl won her last on the engine, but she may be the only horse in the field that has proven to be rateable as she just missed in her lone turf start after sitting in the garden spot. She seems more versatile than the others, which should allow Ricardo Santana Jr. to get his trip from the five hole.
Race Ten: 5:26 post – Dogwood Stakes 125K 7 F 3YO Fillies
6-4-5-2
I’d love to take a stab against #6 Covfefe, but I witnessed her romp in the Miss Preakness in person and it was one of the most impressive performances I have ever witnessed. Brad Cox is using the Dogwood as a stepping stone for the Breeders’ Cup, so she might not be fully cranked today, but her B+ game is likely good enough. I don’t know where the 7/21/19 performance of Larry Jones’ #4 Istan Council came from, but it was a beauty even with the bad start. Jones has only worked her twice since that victory and both of those were crackers. If Covfefe doesn’t fire at all, Istan Council might just surpise them all.
Race Eleven: 5:57 post – MSW 95K 1 Mile Turf 2YO Fillies
10-6-2-3
Today’s card closes with another overflow field of 2YO fillies ready to romp on the turf. With the possible exception of Dale Romans’ #10 Addison, I’m not really impressed with the experienced runners. Addison showed a ton of improvement in her turf debut on 9/1/19 after being very normal in her career debut. Channing Hill hasn’t left her side and should get a better trip than the mess she experienced last time out. #2 Egyptian Princess is a baby of highly-touted new sire American Pharoah. We Already know that his babies have been running exceptionally well on turf as well as being very precocious. Trainer Brendan Walsh only wins at 7% with FTS, but this one could be more the exception than the rule. We won’t get a great price if this FTS is the goods, but she gets Corey Lanerie and makes a lot of sense. Steve Asmussen has $600K bonus baby #6 Seattle Slang entered for her debut at one mile on the turf. This Tapit baby has worked credibly, though not amazingly, in the morning and we all know he wins at close to 20% at first asking. #3 Hey Kitten has already run two races at this distance on the turf and she improved from her first to her last. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset gets Julien Leparoux for the first time today and she has stayed fit in the morning since she gave it up down the lane on 9/11/19 at Ellis Park.