Churchill Downs Saturday May 23, 2020
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves the brothers Grimm, brothers in arms, The Brothers Karamazov, and the Avett Brothers. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:00 post – MC 50000 7 F 3YO&Up
9-12-3-4
An overflow field of sixteen 3YO colts were entered for the leadoff race on today’s Saturday card, but only twelve of them will make the gate, so watch your AE’s and scratches. Brad Cox’s #9 Golden Notion is the extremely logical and worthy ML favorite and has every right to graduate today in his sixth start. This is his first drop into the claiming ranks and the class relief appears to be exactly what the doctor ordered. I have some concerns over the fact that he has never made the lead in any of his races, so doubts abound on whether he actually wants to be a winner. That said, he towers over this field on paper and we’ll need to get creative to make a case for another winner. Three FTS could offer us some options to pull an upset, but we’ll have to check the tote board for steam. Tommy Drury’s #3 Step Ten is probably the best of the new runners as his five morning workouts indicate that he is ready for his first trip to the starting gate. I have some concerns over the two recent gate works as this usually means the horse is a little fractious, something he’ll need to avoid to beat the chalk. Then again, I’ve seen this Drury move before and it is usually dangerous. #12 Looking at Liberty is owned and trained by Grant Forster and he gets Jimmy Graham in the irons for his debut. While Forster is quite capable, he doesn’t normally win at first asking, but the 4/11/2020 workout is an absolute eye-popper and screams readiness. That said, this $200K purchase is making his first start as a 4YO in the claiming ranks and that is a bit of a red flag.
Race Two: 1:30 post – OC 20000 1 1/16 Mile 4YO&Up
6-9-3-4
We don’t see trainer Brittany Vanden berg too often, but when we do, we should take notice as she has four winners from seven entries this year. Her #6 Slick Silver was entered way above his head on 4/11/2020 at Oaklawn where he got to look at the swishing tails of Tom’s d’Etat, Improbable, and Bankit. Let’s draw a line through that aggressive thinking and relish the fact he’s entered against more realistic company today. I’m going to give this one the nod as he won his previous six starts, five of them with current jockey Chris Emigh, and he’s perfect at this distance. #2 Tez has been pretty good for trainer Tom Amoss before being snatched away at Oaklawn’s claiming box on 5/1/2020. He might not have to improve too much for new trainer Brad Cox, but I do wonder if he’s had time to get Tez on his program. Late Note: Tez has scratched
Race Three: 2:00 post – MSW 79K 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
4-10-7-1
Trainer Keith Desormeaux and jockey Mitchell Murrill team up for the fourth time in a row trying to get a photo session for #10 Verb. While he looks like a worthy ML favorite and has every reason to win this race, I’m left wondering if he has the desire to win against horses of any quality as he always surrenders his early leads. Churchill Downs has been favoring early speed, so a win won’t surprise me, but I like a couple of others in here at better prices. #4 Bubba Caballo has no reason to be ashamed of his 3/27/2020 Oaklawn Park debut and trainer Ron Moquett has put four workouts into him since his first race and keeps Joe Talamo in the bike. He’s moving up in class, but I see that as a sign of strength, not weakness. #7 Fugitive absolutely spit the bit coming down the lane in his last race at Gulfstream Park on 4/25/2020. It leaves me wondering if the fourteen days between his last two starts was too quick for this Mike Maker runner. He runs back today with almost a month off, so I expect a more well-rested steed. Getting Gaffalione up won’t hurt the cause, either.
Race Four: 2:32 post – MSW 79K 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
11-1-9-12
This race offers us several horses to consider as much of this field has been nondescript and under-achieving so far in their brief racing careers. Billy Mott’s #1 Valletta is extremely logical in her return to the main track after two even efforts on the Gulfstream Park turf. She’ll likely go off as the post time second favorite, so I am going to pass on her in this wide-open field. Chad Brown’s #9 Atlaf is pulling the same trick as the Mott and will likely be the post time favorite. It’s always dangerous to fade Brown but moving her to the main track is all I need to see to take a swing against her. Both could win and are worth considering on horizontal tickets, but I’ll look elsewhere in this field. #11 Bobby’s Goldengirl was extremely professional in her Laurel Park debut on 3/14/2020 for trainer Kelly Rubley. She made the lead, cut decent fractions, and held on for a willing third. Rubley has tightened her up with six credible workouts leaving us with the expectation of an improved effort today.
Race Five: 3:04 post – OC 150000b 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
4-6-9-3 Turf 15-10-6-2 Main Track
I found this high dollar optional claimer to be the most difficult race on the entire card to handicap. All fifteen entries have made a Graded Stakes appearance and I can honestly make a solid case for two-thirds of this field. So, get the price on the horse you’d like to play. If trainer Graham Motion has #6 Just Howard ready off the bench, he will be dangerous at a nice price. I can’t tell from the six recent workouts how fit this 6YO will be, but I suppose there’s confidence in volume and Motion is no slouch off the bench. #9 Mr. Misunderstood hasn’t raced in the past four months for Brad Cox, but his love of the Churchill Downs sod cannot be ignored, and Cox is usually loaded for bear in spots like this. While this race is likely a prep for better things, he could easily win off the shelf and regular pilot Florent Geroux adds confidence. I’m going to use the human angle in picking my winner of this loaded race. Johnny V normally has Motion’s top mounts and he chose to ride Shug’s #4 Doctor Mounty today. Seven months away is a lot to ask of any horse, but Shug hits at 15% with this move, so I am not too dismayed. If this race washes off the turf, give me the MTO #15 Fact Finding.
Race Six: 3:36 post – Allowance 81000n1x 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
6-3-10-4
Trainer Al Stall has had the ML 5/2 favorite #4 Get the Prize resting for the past eleven months. That’s a tall order to fill facing a field full of tighter foes. I also have questions about ditching the only jockey he’s ever had for Joel Rosario as I am not even sure this is an upgrade with this horse. I see way too many red flags to play this horse at a short price. #2 High Crime is pulling a similar stunt as Get the Prize with the addition of changing surfaces. I find him to be a horrible second choice on the ML. So, since I think I have identified two bad favorites, where will I look for my score? I can’t ignore Asmussen/Santana’s #3 Picasso, but he’ll likely be a short price as well and I don’t normally endorse a horse facing winners for the first time. This is an extremely logical spot for Picasso, and Asmussen looks to be loaded with him, but the frequent breaks in running lines and the move up in class cause me enough pause to consider another horse. What’s wrong with #6 Hidden Ruler? He’s fit, he’s consistent, trainer John Ortiz is nobody’s fool, jockey Jose Ortiz is fully capable. Why is the ML giving me 10/1? I’ll bite. I am also going to check the first flash steam on #10 Smart Time. If he gets any action, I’ll find it hard to ignore a first-time gelding with proven efforts, a string of solid comeback workouts, and a trusted pilot in Martin Garcia. Sure, he’s been away for almost a year, and I hate that, but I’ll play him at any price close to his ML. I think 8/1 is realistic.
Race Seven: 4:08 post – Shawnee Stakes $100K 1 1/16 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
4-8-6-5
Our late Pick Five is a doozy, folks, so let’s swing away. I normally like to play against over bet favorites like Chad Brown’s #4 Dunbar Road. She’s been away from the races for six months and she is going to get hammered at the windows. The problem is this… her B-minus game is good enough against these. She’s no Midnight Bisou (hi Tim Herr!) or Monomoy Girl, but she’s no slouch. I can’t see a scenario where I have a realistic chance to beat her without something unforeseen happening. I’ll take a small stab Steve Asmussen’s #8 She’s a Julie. She has been away from the races for longer than Dunbar Road, but if Asmussen can get any improvement from her over last year’s solid efforts, she has a chance. I’ll take another shot with #5 Another Broad if the track comes up wet this late in the card. She’s 6/6 ITM with four wins over a wet strip.
Race Eight: 4:40 post – Tepin Stakes $100K 1 Mile Turf 3YO Fillies
7-9-15-14-10
Graham Motion’s #9 Sharing is an eye-popper in the PPs, but being off since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillie Turf isn’t exactly ideal. Then again, what is. Manny Franco keeps the mount for this filly, and why not? She looks to be a good one. If we are going to beat her this year, today is likely the day, but she has every reason to win. Eddie Kenneally’s #7 Outburst was good enough to win the Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay Downs on 3/7/2020, so she likely has a fitness advantage over our favorite. Her 4/4/2020 workout is as good as they come, and she has had two tighteners since. Jockey Javier Castellano likes her enough to choose her over Chad Brown’s #12 Moral Reasoning. Jockey Paco Lopez is back aboard trainer Michael Stidham’s undefeated #14 Alms. She has already beaten three other runners in this race in her brief, career. There is no way we will get the ML 12/1 on Todd Pletcher’s #15 Eve of War. She took to the turf at Gulfstream Park on 4/24/2020 by wiring a decent OC$75K field of nine. There appears to be a considerable amount of speed in this race, so I am unsure if she can wire them again, especially from the far outside gate, but she certainly has a chance. Since there is so much speed, this year’s Tepin Stakes could set up for a late closer. Alms should be able to pounce, but getting anywhere close to the 20/1 ML on #10 Pass the Plate is flat stupid. She has won here at Churchill Downs over a “good” turf track, which she might get again today. She has closed into some slow fractions in her previous races and she’ll get a more heated pace up front today. She might need to improve a bit for trainer Paul McGee, but she is a definite player in this field.
Race Nine: 5:12 post – Blame Stakes $100K 1 Mile 4YO&Up
8-3-10-13
Brad Cox’s #8 Owendale returns to the races after a five month break and his solid second place finish in the GI Clark here at Churchill Downs on 11/29/2020. He is the best horse in the race and has every reason to be even better as a 4YO. Play against him at your own peril. Stanley Hough’s #3 Global Campaign will be forwardly placed with #14 Diamond King and if they take it easy on each other, they may be able to neutralize Owendale’s late kick. Global Campaign has enough talent to win on the engine, but he might need to cut some slower fractions to win. #6 Backyard Heaven has moved away from the Chad Brown barn for the first time and the races earlier in his career are plenty good enough to win this version of the Blame. Nine months is a long time to be on the shelf, especially for a 6YO horse with past soundness issues, but a return to his previous efforts would be good enough today. Because of the outside post, trainer Bret Calhoun has the cards stacked against #13 Mr. Money. He wasn’t much at Oaklawn on 4/11/2020 in his first start after a six-month break, so I can excuse his last effort and perceive it as an advantage against others in this field coming in off a break. I’d like him a lot more if he was closer to the rail.
Race Ten: 5:44 post – Matt Winn GIII 1 1/16 Mile 3Y
2-10-11-6
This year’s GIII Matt Winn gets the added attraction of being a Kentucky Derby points race due to all the COVID19 changes to our racing schedule. Everyone is anticipating the long-awaited return of the 2019 Breeders’ Futurity winner #10 Maxfield. Trainer Brendan Walsh appears to have caught a break with the Kentucky Derby being postponed until September 5th, but he looks to be up against it today in his return. He certainly has talent and he has been working brilliantly in the morning for Godolphin, but I wouldn’t want to return to the track against a proven runner like Steve Asmussen’s #2 Pneumatic. This undefeated colt has done nothing wrong in his two-race career and he looks to be on a path to much better things. The 5/9/2020 looks like a green light for a prime effort and I’d rather have the fitness edge of past races than coming in off a break.We can’t ignore Dale Romans’ #11 Attachment Rate, but he’ll need to catch some racing luck from the far outside and a clean trip as well. Johnny Velasquez can do that for a horse, but he appears to be a cut below the other two.
Race Eleven: 6:16 post – War Chant $100K 1 Mile Turf 3YO
4-9-6-2
The War Chant drew a very solid field of 3YO turf running colts. The ML has five horses within an evenly matched two points on the tote, so we should be able to pick our value. Brad Cox’s highly regarded #6 Hieronymus has won 4/5 races in his career, but his lone Churchill Downs race was the stinker in his running lines. I’m against. #9 Smooth Like Strait ships in from California for trainer Mike McCarthy. His form is plenty good, but I prefer beating west coast shippers on the Churchill sod, especially since Johnny V will have to walk the dog on the front end to get the win. I have a sneaky suspicion that #4 Field Pass will get ignored in this field as the Turfway Park running line muddies up his form compared to the others. Trainer Mike Maker appears to have tighten the screws on him in the morning and Jose Ortiz will be able to sit in the garden spot and get first run.