It’s been a cold week in Louisville. We’ll see how that affects the racing. This card was handicapped with a fast main track, and turf racing in mind. We’ll see if they run on the turf or not. For the first time in 3 weeks, it will not be raining on a Thursday here!
Good luck!
Race 1
#3 Incensed
This 6YO gelding will be making his first start now in the Diodoro barn. Diodoro is about 27% with horses first time in his barn. This horse has speed, and I’d expect him to be right on the pace, and most likely setting it. I do think he’s probably a little better on a synthetic racetrack, but he had run good enough races on dirt before that would make him fit with this group. I’m hoping he breaks well, and David Cohen can get this guy to the front, and then to the winner’s circle.
#1 Forerun
This is the old man of the group. Eight years old and making career start number 57 today. He knows what his job is, and he knows how to win. He’s looking for win number 20(!). Dirt sprints are his specialty, and he’s got speed. I would expect him and my top pick to be going at it early and often in this race. Santo Sanjur rides for trainer Kim Hammond.
Race 2
#1 Chief Know It All
He’s probably going to be a short price in here, but I think he’ll be tough to beat. He’s in pretty good form at the moment, and I think he’ll get a pretty cozy trip in this race. He’s got tactical speed, and he’s drawn inside, so he should be able to save some ground. Tyler Gaffalione has been up for his last two victories, and he’s back on today. He’s a sneaky good 30% when riding for trainer Danny Gargan.
#2 Celerity
He finished second to my top pick last time out at Keeneland. There was no pace in that race and he still made a decent middle move to get second. Not sure this race will have a fast pace either, but he’s definitely the best closer in here. Plus, Calvin Borel will be aboard, and he might fit this guy perfectly. They’ll hangout at the back of the pack, save ground, and try to make a move at the end.
Race 3
#2 He Takes Charge
This guy is the second longest price on the ML, but I’ll take a shot with him. On paper, this race looks to have quite a bit of speed signed on. So because of that, I’m going to go with the best closer in here. He’s cutting back in distance, but I’m hoping that won’t be an issue. He’s going to get more pace to run at than he’s had in a long time. He’s a little light on speed figures, but I’m hoping the race shape will help get him the win. Fernando de la Cruz will be in the irons.
#5 Cheytac
He’ll be first off the claim for Diodoro, and as I’ve mentioned before, that’s a high percentage angle. His last race wasn’t too good, but he’s had about six weeks off, so maybe Diodoro has him where he wants him today. He’s run some very good races here at Churchill before, plus he’s 2 for 3 at today’s distance. He has a good stalking style, so he could get an ideal trip just behind the speed in this race. If he fires a top level effort, he could be good enough to win. David Cohen will ride.
Race 4
#5 Brodytheoxman
I guess I had to pick this one (Lol), considering he has my namesake. But honestly, he has a real shot to win this one. This is not a strong group, and I’m intrigued by the stretch out in distance. Pedigree wise this shouldn’t be a problem, and draw a line through his turf route, I think dirt is his preferred surface. I think he can be forwardly placed, and unless one of the first time starters has early foot, he could be on the lead. Rogelio Miranda rides for owner/trainer Jeffrey Jackson.
#3 Warrant Officer
Probably the horse to beat just based on the fact that he’s never raced at a level this low before. His last race makes him tough to beat, but he was beaten nearly ten lengths in that race, so I am willing to take a shot against here. Brian Hernandez will be aboard for Ken McPeek.
Nothing else really stands out in this race. I’m not too intrigued by the two first time starters in this race. And most of the other runners have been extremely poor, so poor that I’m not sure they’ll be racing for very long.
Race 5
#6 Screamin’ By
I’m taking a shot in here also. I know Ian Wilkes does not win with a first time starter very often, but this filly has a couple of quick works and a pedigree that suggests she could be able to run on debut. Wilkes is off to a nice start at the meet. I’m not thrilled about Robby Albarado riding; he’s had a cold year to say the least. But nonetheless, I’ll be using this girl in my wagers.
#4 Taraz
She’s the morning line favorite, and probably deservedly so. She’s owned by Juddmonte, and trained by Brad Cox, who hits with 20% of his firsters. Her works look strong on paper, and she’s by the hot sire Into Mischief; so she could definitely win early. Florent Geroux is back from his injury, and he’s got the mount on this one. I’ll be using her on wagers as well, along with my top pick in here.
I will also mention #7 Snaffle. She has an experience edge over this field, making start number four today. And while she has been improving, I don’t think she stands out by any means.
Race 6
#3 Rocky Policy
Difficult race here, and I acknowledge that Morticia will be tough to beat in here. But, I’ll give you a few possible alternatives, starting with this mare. Her turf sprints this year have all been solid. She was claimed by Bob Hess a few starts ago, and he’s been able to keep her in good form. She’ll be able to save ground from this post position. Once they hit the stretch hopefully Ricardo Santana can tip her out and finish nicely.
#11 May Lily
I’ve been a fan of this girl for a while now. She’s had a consistent year, plus she loves this turf course. She’s a true sprint closer. She doesn’t have any early speed, but she’ll finishing at the end. She exits the same race as the horse I mentioned above, and I think that was a strong race. Julien Leparoux is going to have to work out a trip from this outside post, so hopefully they get some racing luck.
#7 Mentality
I actually considered putting this one as my top pick. I think she’s right there with the other ones that I’ve mentioned. She figures to be more forwardly placed in this race. She’s only raced three times this year, but they’ve all been good. Plus, she’s trained by Wesley Ward, who knows a thing or two about turf sprinters. James Graham will be in the irons.
Race 7
#7 Bonny South
These connections hold a strong hand in the first division of this race today, and they hold a strong hand in here as well. This Juddmonte homebred looks to be working great. This is a nice win early pedigree, being by Munnings. Brad Cox trains, as I mentioned before he hits at about 20% with first time starters. Florent Geroux will ride, and I’d expect this girl to fire a big effort on debut today.
#9 Strong Flag
This is a firster trained by Steve Asmussen. The worktab looks like a typical Asmussen runner. A quick work, followed by some maintenance type works. They paid a decent price for this filly ($435,000), considering her sire Strong Mandate only stands for $10,000. I would expect her to be a little better as the distances increase, but that’s not to say that she can’t win here today going 6.5F. Ricardo Santana is aboard.
#5 AJ Rock
I just want to mention this one as well. When you look at that first running she has, it looks pretty awful. But consider that was Kentucky Downs, and not everyone takes to that course. Plus she’s been off since that race, and right now everything that Peter Miller is sending out is running huge. In four starts at the meet, he’s got three wins and a third. So I’d give this one a second look, and we know Peter Miller can win with young sprinters. Tyler Gaffalione will ride this one.
Race 8
#6 Breakfast Pond
I’m going to take a little swing with this one. 8-1 on the ML is a nice price. She’s trying dirt for the first time, but I’m willing to see if she likes it. She’s never raced at a level this low, and I think the race could set up for her on this turn back in distance. I have some question marks about the speed horses in this race; so if they get a little weary at the end, I think she has the potential to run them all down. She’s made decent middle moves in a lot of her races at slightly longer distances, so this setup could be perfect for her. Chris Landeros will get aboard.
#1 Bossy Bride
She’s been transferred to the barn of Mike Maker, and she’s been off for a couple months. She broke her maiden quite nicely at Laurel last time out against maiden special weight company. Maker is off to a chilly start at the meet, and she’s now facing winners for the first time, so it’ll be tough. As I mentioned above, I don’t really like the speed in this race, so I think this could setup for her as well. Tyler Gaffalione will ride, and he is doing very well at the meet.
Race 9
#9 Blue Sky Kowboy
A pretty wide open race here, but I’ll put this Illinois bred on top. He’s been in decent form this year, and has been very consistent. He will be pace and trip dependent, however. He has no early speed, so Sophie Doyle will have to work out a trip from the back of the pack. But if they’re able to get some clear running room, they’ll be moving fast down the stretch. Sophie’s been effective when she’s ridden here this meet; six of her 10 mounts have finished in the money.
#8 Secretary At War
I think second off the layoff will be the key angle for this horse. He got a little tired at the end of his last race; but that was his first start since January. He’s got the ability to lay close to the pace, so that could be advantageous in this spot. This one mile distance is his most effective trip, so assuming he takes a step forward off his last race, he’s a main contender in here. Florent Geroux rides for Brad Cox.
#4 Lombo
This gray colt kind of intrigues me at a price. He’s exciting a 5F race, which is probably a little short for him, but he was only beaten two lengths. He was 92-1 that day, and that race had some salty runners in it. I do find it interesting that Phil D’Amato ships him in for this race, instead of running him at the current Del Mar meet. He looks to be one of the speed players in here, so I’d expect him to be involved early and often. I’m not sure he’s a great win candidate, but at a nice price, he could be worth using underneath. Ricardo Santana takes the call.
Race 10
#6 Dear John Letter
Well here we are. We made it to last race, and what a collection it is. Unfortunately I don’t mean that in the most positive way. Not a real strong group here. So I’m going with this first time starter. He’s got strong connections: Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, trainer Mike Maker, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. She’s 8-1 on the ML, but watch the tote board. I think she’ll be way lower than this at post time, and if so, I think that’s a good sign. None of the other runners really impress me here, so I’ll try the new face.
#9 English Escort
If I had to mention one other one in here, it’d be this one. Her first two tries were against maiden special weight company, so this is a monumental drop today. This will also be her first try on the dirt, but her workouts suggest she might handle it. I think there’s a good chance she could be in front when they turn for home, and maybe no one will be able to pass her. Gabriel Saez will ride.