Breeders Cup week is always an exciting time. These races are kind of like the appetizer leading up to Friday and Saturday’s main course, 5 star meal. Hopefully the weather clears up in time for the weekend. But even if it’s a sloppy track today, there can still be some wacky results that end up with nice payoffs. So hopefully we get a couple of those today!
Race 1
#4 Moolamiss
This is mostly a wet track play. She is the least successful horse in the field considering she is only 1-19 lifetime. However, in her two wet track tries, she has 2 good second place finishes. She’s also had decent success at Churchill having hit the board in 3 of 6 starts. Ricardo Santana aboard. He has also ridden her a couple times before.
#5 Our Snowflake
This 3YO filly was DQ’d into the winners circle last time. That last start came all the back in May. So she is coming in off a bit of a layoff. She ran well in her debut, so that would lead you to believe that she can run well fresh. Trainer Bill Conley is having a nice year hitting at 22%.
#1 Volodina
Bill Mott ships this one in from New York. She is also dropping in class into a claiming race for the first time. They tried turf last time, and that didn’t yield much improvement, so they are willing to drop her today. She hasn’t shown much early speed at all so far in her races, so expect her to be toward the back. These are connections that you have to respect. Jose Ortiz for Bill Mott.
Race 2
#6 Backintheacademy
I must admit, this is a little bit of a heart play. I scored with her way back when she broke her maiden at Del Mar about 4 years. I’ve always kind of liked this horse.
That aside, I do think she has a good chance today. She’s run three good races for her trainer Norman McKnight. She’s coming out of much tougher races. Edgar Morales is in the saddle, coming off his nice Keeneland meeting.
#1A Southernperfection
In typical (owner) Looch Racing style, this girl is coming out of the G1 Spinster into this $5,000 allowance race. She looks to be the controlling speed in here and will probably be tough to run down. She has also run well on a wet track. The red hot Tyler Gaffalione rides.
#3 Oro Bird
With 19 career starts, this is actually the least experienced horse in here. This is a salty bunch. This filly has had success at this level before, and has also won here at Churchill. 2 for 2 on a wet surface doesn’t hurt either. Tried turf the last two, weren’t bad efforts, so she comes in with pretty good form. Robby Albarado is the pilot.
Race 3
#2 Sumner
This comes in from the east coast for new trainer Garry Simms. It does concern me a little bit that this horse has been with Diodoro and Pletcher, two high percentage trainers, and now he’s with Simms who is 0-5 this year. So I’m curious to see if this horse can hold his form. If he can, I think he as a good shot today. His 2 races in New York were solid. Ricardo Santana rides.
#5 Wild About You
This 8YO is first off the claim for trainer/owner Marvin Johnson. He raced on the turf last time at Indiana. He is switching back to the dirt for this race, and he likes a sloppy course. So if he gets that today, I think he can ran a decent race. In 5 career off track races he has 1 win and 4 seconds. He doesn’t have any early speed however, so he will be launching from way back. One of Johnson’s main riders Jesus Castanon is aboard.
#4 Exemplar
I’m willing to forgive his last effort at Delta Downs. That’s kind of an odd configuration and some horse just don’t like it. His races at Canterbury we’re alright, and he’s 1 for 1 here at Churchill. He will probably try to rally from midpack. James Graham rides for Chris Richard.
Race 4
Given the uncertain weather conditions, this turf race is a pass.
Race 5
#3 Serious Steam
Career debut for this daughter of Distorted Humor. Al Stall trains, and he has good numbers with these types. 28% FTS and 22% with 2YOs. He gets Shaun Bridgmohan to ride, and they are 8 for 17 (47%!!) together at Churchill over the past year. Considering an inside post and potential wet track conditions, I’m hoping for a clean break and a forward position.
#10 Super Simple
The most experienced filly in here as this is her 6th lifetime start. She’s run some pretty solid races, including a questionable DQ back at Saratoga when she crossed the line first. She also has decent wet track form, so that is a bonus. Good connections here, Santana riding for Asmussen.
#12 Elegant Magdalena
Third career race for this girl. Her first two races she drew the rail, and here she draws the complete outside. Ouch. She doesn’t have much luck at the post position draws so far. She showed a little improvements in start number two, and that was with lasix added. So I’m hoping she can take another step forward and possibly get a piece of this today. On paper, she has decent wet track pedigree, so that shouldn’t be a major concern.
Race 6
Just like race 4, passing because of the uncertain weather/turf conditions
Race 7
#1 Into My Dreams
This was a tough race to figure out for me. I am thinking there will be a decent pace, so I’m putting this colt on top because I think he could get a good stalking trip. He hasn’t raced since March, so that is a little concern, but he has a good set of six works coming into this. Last fall he made his debut here at Churchill and finished 4th in a field of 12.
#10 Flying the Flag
Graham Motion ships this one in for West Point Thoroughbreds. He made his debut at Laurel Park last month. He took a lot of money that day going off at odds of 4/5. He finished a good second after hopping at the break. Considering his $675,000 purchase price, they believe this colt has bright future.
#9 New Colossus
This guy has the best speed figures in the race. He looks to be a major pace factor, plus they are adding blinkers, so I would expect him to be toward the front. He also has a good wet track pedigree, being sired by the great Curlin. Really good connections here too. Fox Hill Farms, Larry Jones, Florent Geroux.
Race 8
#4 Concord Fast
This a another wet track play. He has raced one time in the slop and it was a very good effort right here at Churchill. It was a 3 length score against 2nd level allowance competition. Since that race back in June he hasn’t been quite the same, but I’m hoping he can return to a place he likes and run well today. His last couple efforts were on the turf going 5F. He also tried a 4.5F dirt race at Mountaineer in August. So I’m hoping the more conventional 6F trio suits him better today.
#10 Curlins Vow
This 5YO seemed to be falling out of form this spring, so he hasn’t been seen since May. He is another one though that has had some success on a wet surface, and being by Curlin, that is not a surprise. It’s been a long time since he has raced a distance this short, so that is a little bit of a concern. He doesn’t project to show much speed early on, so he’ll need some pace to run at; but I think he could get that. There are a few others in here that could mix it up early. Trainer Michael Tomlinson is 12% off the layoff, and 18% when he goes sprint to route. So he’s capable of this.
#6 Servier
This 4YO by Union Rags looks to be a pace factor. His last two efforts do concern me, he has been up close and then completely stopped in the stretch. He does have two wins at Churchill, so that could be helpful. If he can get a clear lead, I think that is his best chance to steal this one. Florent Geroux rides for Brad Cox. They are 30% when they team up.
Race 9
#7 Uno Mas Modelo
I actually like this guy quite a bit in this race. Draw a line through his last race, the G1 JCGC at Belmont going a mile and a quarter. He gets back to sprint distance today. In 2 career wet track races he has a win and a second. And he also has a win here at Churchill. He draws nicely on the outside and hopefully he can stay somewhat clean and make a strong finish in the stretch. Albin Jimenez rides for trainer Anthony Quartarolo.
#2 Switzerland
This 4YO Speightstown colt is definitely the class of this race. He’s a multiple graded stakes winner. He also looks to be a major pace presence. He draws outside of the other main speed horse, so that is also an advantage. He has a nice work on the tab leading up to this. And has 3 wins in the slop. It’s the always dangerous combination of Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana.
#6 Fort Fortitude
Chris Hartman sends this one out for the Black Hawk Stable. He tried a two turn race at Keeneland last time, and he just wasn’t want a distance of ground. He’s proven that he is much better sprinting. He’s never missed the exacta going today’s 6F distance, that includes his dirt and turf races. He also is 2-2 on off going. Julien Leparoux rides, and he and Hartman are near 40% (!) when they team up at Churchill Downs.
Race 10
#5 Overzealous
This will be his first start against winners. However, I really like his last race. He was able to sit behind horses and then power away in the stretch. The track was sloppy that day, so that’s also a bonus when handicapping for this race. Both of his dirt efforts are okay. My one concern would be that he has never raced this short of a distance before, so I’m hoping he’s not too far behind at the mid race point.
#4 Here’s Carlos
This 3YO gelding seems to be in his best form right now. He broke his maiden 3 races back, and has followed that up with two second place finishes. He was four lengths clear of the third place finisher in the last race, and the horse that beat him came back to win impressively at Keeneland for the second time at the meet. So I think he is exiting a decent race. Robby Albarado rides for trainer Eric Foster.
#11 Lucky Britches
I was thinking about putting this guy on top, but he draws a pretty difficult post position. He comes in fresh having not raced since August. He’s also cutting back in distance. He broke his maiden here at Churchill going 7F so I’m not overly concerned about the 6F of today’s race. He also has not been at a level this low yet in his career, so if he can navigate some sort of trip from post 12, he could be tough. Joe Rocco is aboard for Michael Tomlinson, they are about 20% together.