Churchill Downs
November 7, 2019
It looks like it could be another poor weather day. I have a pick for race 6, even if it comes off turf. Race 9 I skipped because of the weather uncertainty.
Good luck to everyone!
Race 1
#7 Park Ridge Benny
First off the claim for Joe Sharp here. Sharp is 26% at that angle. This horse returned from a three month layoff a few weeks ago at Keeneland. That was a very sharp effort. This field might be a little tougher than that one, but he’s still a main contender. I think he could sit the perfect trip in here, sitting just off the speed while being outside in the clear. Brian Hernandez will be aboard.
#1 El Venue
Speed. That’s his weapon. Last time out he set legitimate fractions and just kept on pulling away from the ten other horses in that race. He draws the rail here so I would assume he’ll have the same game plan. He’s adding an extra half furlong today, and he’s never tried this distance before, so we’ll see how he handles it. Miguel Mena rides, he’s starting to round into form and is off to a good start at the meet.
#4 Zombie
This gelding has been off since September, so he should be fresh. Ron Moquett is a serviceable 12% off the break, plus this horse has run very well fresh before, so I don’t think it’ll be an issue. This guy does like to win; five wins in 15 starts. He’s got some speed, so he should be mixing it up early. This Iowa bred will be ridden by Declan Carroll. Carroll is quite successful when teaming up with Moquett.
Race 2
#6 Eight Town
Very long layoff for this 5YO gelding. Hasn’t been seen at the races since September of 2018; so that is definitely a little bit of a concern. However, he looks to be training very well. This guy definitely has some talent and has held his own against some pretty good competition. I think his draw is perfect today, being on the outside. Julien Leparoux can play the break and see what happens. He has speed, but does not need the lead to be effective. I’m looking for a good run from him today.
#4 Whereshetoldmetogo
This colt will be making just his third start of the year. He returned in September after a year off, and he’s run well. He has also faced some legit runners in his past, including going toe-to-toe with Firenze Fire. He’s also proven to be effective at today’s distance of 7F, which can be tricky trip for some. I think he’ll probably be stalking the early speed in this race. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the irons.
Race 3
#2 Charlie’sarchangel
Trainer Tom Amoss will be switching this guy back to the dirt today. Amoss is 24% with that maneuver. They put blinkers on two starts ago, and it’s resulted in a win and a second. He hasn’t shown much early speed recently, and I don’t see a ton of other speed in this race, so he may be up against pace wise. Although, he has shown a little speed in his previous dirt tries, so hopefully he won’t get too far back. James Graham will be riding him today.
#7 Tizpure
This colt is probably the horse to beat. Speed figure wise, he’s definitely doing the best right now. His last race was a good one in Indiana. I would expect him to be sitting close to a moderate pace in this race. He’s been good at this distance in the past; one win and one second in two races. Declan Cannon rode last time, and he’s back today. Dale Romans trains.
#8 Homefortheweekend
This one can be quite inconsistent, thus making him tough to handicap. He’s run some races in his past that would make him competitive in here. But he’s also run some pretty awful races, too. His last race was decent, so I’m not sure if he’s in good form, or if he’s now due for another clunker. He has absolutely no speed, but if he stays interested long enough, he has shown a decent closing kick at times. Julien Leparoux rides for Vickie Foley.
Race 4
#7 Passion Play
Difficult race for me here. I settled on this guy mainly for the fact that he’s stretching back out in distance. He’s run decent races at this distance before, and I think his last race will set him up good for this one. He projects to be stalking the pace in this race. Dallas Stewart trains, and Joe Rocco will ride. Joe has had a very cold year, but maybe he can find the winner’s circle with this one.
#8 Treasure Trove
I’m thinking that the addition of blinkers might help this horse. That’s been a successful move for Kellyn Gorder in the past, and this horse shows a very quick work since his last race; maybe that was with the blinkers on? He’s taking a little step up in class, but I still think he fits with this group. Robby Albarado will be riding. Robby has gotten off to a good start at the meet, finishing in the money with six of his 15 mounts.
#2 Seek the Peak
This colt will be trying claiming company for the first time. He’s not really a standout on numbers in here, but he’ll probably be the favorite. His last race was not good at all, so will the drop be enough to wake him up? It appears that Corey Lanerie may have had options in this race, and this is the horse he chose. So that might mean something. This horse’s two best races have been here at Churchill Downs, so that’s worth noting as well.
Race 5
#3 Erv’s Wench
I’m going to take a little shot with this one. Michael Tomlinson is about 10% with his first time starters and with his 2YOs. I’m also a fan of this filly’s sire, Race Day. He was a multiple graded stakes winner, and had some good ability. This girl has some decent works leading up to this. I don’t really see any standouts in here, so at a price, I think she’s worth using. Joe Rocco will be aboard.
#8 Green Monster
This debut filly by Bayern definitely has the best connections in the race. Brad Cox trains, and Mike Dubb owns. Cox has good numbers across the board, and the pedigree would suggest she’ll be able to run early. They only paid $80,000 for this girl, so debuting her for $150,000 is not a bad sign to me. Seems logical for sure. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the irons.
#4 Dancing Destroyer
This one is the most experienced runner in the field, making start number three. Her first two starts weren’t bad, and she has shown some improvement. Unless one of the first time starters is a real rocket out of the gate, this girl will probably have the early lead. I don’t know that I’d fade her completely, but at the low odds she’ll be, I don’t think she’ll provide any value in a win wager. Julien Leparoux rides for Norm Casse.
Race 6
#7 Pure Speculation
*top pick for turf and main track*
This gelding will be trying the grass for the first time today. I don’t really see an issue with that, I think he’ll handle it fine. His trainer Bret Calhoun is about 15% with his turf sprinters. I do think this horse will be able to get the early lead, and then we’ll see if he can hold it. He’s gotten a little tired his last two races, but maybe cutting back a half furlong will take care of that. This race will probably be a little more difficult than the ones at Indiana Downs he’s been running in. Brain Hernandez will ride.
#1 Amani Warrior
One of just two first time starters in here. He’s by War Front, so he should love the turf. Ultimately he might want more distance than this, but the works look very sharp, so I think he’ll make a good account of himself. Brendan Walsh is 24% with his turf sprinters, and that’s one of Walsh’s best angles. Tyler Gaffalione will be getting on for the debut. He has a lot of success with Walsh.
#8 Shared Legacy
He’s making a cutback in distance today; from a mile to this 5F trip. He’s shown some route speed in those races, but obviously with this being a sprint, I’d expect him to be further back early on. If he handles the turn back well, I’d expect him to running on strongly at the end. He’s also never run over a firm turf course, so we’ll see if that effects him one way or another. Murat Sancal trains and Corey Lanerie will ride.
Race 7
#2 Firehorn
This race took me a while to sort through. No one really stood out to me. I settled on this guy in hopes that maybe he can return to the form he has last winter. He’s been off since June, and his races before the break were not that good. But maybe the freshening has been beneficial. He’s also taking a class drop that might be helpful. I’m hoping he sits a little off the pace here and can finish well in the stretch. Alex Canchari rides for Randy Morse.
#9 Shorely
This gelding probably lacks the class, but he doesn’t lack the consistency. All five of his races that he’s worn blinkers have led to in the money finishes. This will be the toughest field he has faced, though. He has early speed, so I don’t think the outside post will be much of an issue. Apprentice rider Joseph Ramos will be in the irons.
#1 He’s No Bull
I was a little disappointed in his last race. He finished second, but he was beaten by nearly ten lengths. This will be his second start for trainer Matt Shirer, who’s a high percentage trainer, so maybe they have him figured out a little better this time. Given the inside post, and his natural speed, I’d look for him to be on the lead from the get go. Shaun Bridgmohan will be the pilot.
Race 8
#7 Tank Commander
This colt will be switching back to the dirt today. They tried turf last time, which is understandable given this guy’s pedigree. But he won his debut on dirt, and will now try stretching out on it. The breeding would suggest that it shouldn’t be an issue. He closed from last in his debut, but the fractions will be much slower in this race, so I’d expect him within a few lengths of the lead early on. He looks to be training great, so I’m hoping for a big race from him. Joe Rocco will be in the saddle again.
#1A Scars Are Cool
Returning to the dirt might also be key for this one. Tried the turf last time, and it was a disappointing effort as the 3-2 favorite. Before that he ran the in G1 Travers, which was understandably a little too deep for him. He broke his maiden at Saratoga going today’s distance of a mile and an eighth, so we know he likes it. Trainer Stanley Hough has had a very good year, and I think he holds a strong hand in here. Tyler Gaffalione will ride.
#2 Mo Zone
This guy is in decent form at the moment. He broke his maiden going a mile and an eighth on grass, so I’m not concerned about the distance. And he has a win over this main track before, so that’s also a plus. He made a good middle move into a slow paced race last time at Keeneland, then flattened out at the end. Maybe Corey Lanerie can time the move a little better today, and this guy will have a shot. Eddie Kenneally is the trainer.
Race 9
*could come off the turf. No opinion*
Race 10
#4 Loaded
If you’re looking to take a little shot against the favorite, this is the one I’d go with. She ran well in her debut. She has a good work since then, and I think the stretch out in distance will help her. Her pedigree also suggests she would probably like an off track, so if it’s sloppy, take that into consideration. Tyler Gaffalione rode her last time, and he’s on today.
#12 Bird Map
I’ll also give this girl a look. Her debut might not look great on paper, but I think it could set her well for this one. She passed about half the field last time, and now she’s getting more distance and adding blinkers. Norm Casse is 21% first time blinkers, and he’s 18% with second time starters. The horse looks to be training well also. The post position isn’t ideal, but there’s a long run to the turn, so maybe Leparoux can work out a trip.