Churchill Downs
November 28, 2019
Happy Thanksgiving! We have a big 12 race card today, with lots of full fields and betting options. I think they main track will be fast, but keep an eye on the turf. Yesterday they did not run on it. So we’ll see what happens today. Either way there are lots of opportunities today. Good luck!
Race 1
#1 Weneedtotalk
This girl hasn’t been seen since March, so it’s about an eight month layoff. That does concern me a little. Trainer John Ortiz hasn’t had a lot of success with layoff horses recently. However, if she brings her A effort, she’s a main contender here. Her four previous races at this distance have resulted in two wins and two seconds. She doesn’t really have any early speed, even with the blinkers on last time. Tyler Gaffalione will be aboard for the first time.
#4 Foxy Mischief
This filly does have speed, and should be near the pace from the beginning in this race. She’s taking a fairly significant drop in class from her last race at Keeneland. She’s run well at similar levels before, and three of her five career wins have come at today’s 6F distance. Ricardo Santana has ridden her to success in the past, and he gets back on her today. Matt Shirer trains, and he has limited runners, but he wins at over 20%.
Race 2
#3 Blueridge Traveler
A pretty competitive field here. I’ll put this one on top again. I bet him last time at Keeneland as well. He ran an okay second that day. I think there will be slightly more pace in this race, so that would help him as he likes to come from behind. He’s very effective at this distance, including a win at this trip here at Churchill back in September. Julien Leparoux has been aboard for his last couple of races, and he’s in the irons today. Ken McPeek only has a few wins at the meet, but his horses are running alright considering he has many other minor placings.
#6 Captivating Moon
This is a horse I’ve been a fan of for a long time now. He burned quite a bit of my money last year in those 3YO turf races (Lol). I’ve always been intrigued by his strong closing kick, and it seems like he’s transferred that to the dirt now. His last two races on the dirt have been solid, including a win here on Halloween. He didn’t have a great trip that day, yet still won fairly easily going away. He can close into slow paces, so no matter how this race shapes up, I think he’ll be motoring at the end. He likes this track, and he gets Corey Lanerie again, who’s having a very nice meet.
#5 Rare Form
I just want to quickly mention this horse. He’s finally getting back to the dirt, which I think he prefers. I also think he’s got a chance to be lone speed in here. He’s won here going a mile and sixteenth before, and he looks to be training phenomenal right now for Dale Romans. Martin Garcia in the saddle.
Race 3
These are the types of races that I usually try to avoid, but for the sake of this write up, I’ll at least list a top selection.
#9 Mystic Tiger
This geldings last two races would make him a player in here. He’s hit the exacta in two of three tries at this distance. I think he could get a nice stalking trip in this race. He’s 10-1 on the ML, and I think that’s fair. In these types of races I would not want to take a short price, given the inconsistency of most of these runners. Genaro Garcia wins at a nice percentage, and he tabs the apprentice Joseph Ramos to ride today.
Race 4
#3 Tadeo
I think this Cal bred has shown the most promise of anyone in this race. If you just look at his one try against maiden claimers, he ran alright. That was against maiden 50,000, and now he’s dropping even further into this maiden 30,000 today. Not many others in here have shown any ability whatsoever thus far, so if he can run back to his race two starts ago, I think he can win. He has some early speed, which is a good weapon in a race like this. Plus he gets reunited with Florent Geroux who rode him to his best effort so far. Bill Morey is the trainer.
#8 Data Load
This is mainly a trainer angle for me. Keith Desormeaux’s horses have been firing big time at this meet. At the time of these PPs, eight of his nine runners have hit the board. This horse is dropping from maiden special weight into claiming company, plus he’s switching from the turf to the dirt. Desormeaux is 20% with the droppers, and 25% when making the surface switch. Tiznow is on the bottom side of this pedigree, so I don’t think the dirt should be a concern. It’s possible that he’ll want more ground someday, but I’ll still give him a look in this spot today.
#9 Secret Move
Because I don’t see any world beaters in this field, I’ll give this first time starter a look. Tim Glyshaw is a respectable 12% with his 2YOs, and 15% in maiden claiming races. If this horse could somehow even run about a 50 Beyer speed figure on debut, it would definitely put him in the mix here. Fernando de la Cruz will ride, and he and Glyshaw have had success together.
Race 5
#5 Pete’s Play Call
This guy has been on the sidelines for a couple months. He was claimed in his last race by Mike Maker. Maker is about 13% off the claim, and this horse has a nice bullet work on the tab leading into this race. This horse has quite a bit of back class, considering the nice runners he faced in New York last year. I think he has the potential to sit the ideal trip in here. There looks to be some speed on paper, and I think he can sit right behind that and get the jump on the rest of them. Corey Lanerie will be climbing aboard.
#7 Captain Scotty
This gelding hails from the scorching hot barn of Peter Miller. Miller has been on fire this meet, hitting at over 50%. This horse hasn’t raced since March, but Miller can win with a horse off a freshening. This horse has lots of early speed, and I’d expect him to be setting the pace today. All three of his career victories have been at today’s distance of 6F. Tyler Gaffalione will be in the saddle. He has been very successful when riding for Miller here at Churchill.
#2 Hoonani Road
This guy is a pretty nice Arkansas bred. He’s won almost a half million dollars so far. He hasn’t faced open company since 2018, but he proved he could compete with them. He hasn’t been to the races since the beginning of May, but he’s run well fresh before. Wayne Catalano is about 10% with layoff horses. This horse is pretty versatile; he can be the speed, or sit right off of it. He’s never finished outside the exacta at this distance, so this is his specialty. Channing Hill rides.
Race 6
#10 Bound for Nowhere
This is a very nice horse for Wesley Ward. He’s a graded stakes winner, and has been Group 1 placed at Royal Ascot before. If he runs his best effort today, he’s going to win this race. I have a lot of respect for some others in here, as they are a salty bunch. But, I do not think they have this guy’s class. He has speed, but doesn’t need the lead. So this outside post could be perfect for him and jockey Julio Garcia. He can play the break and see where it puts him. He’s going to be a very short price, but deservedly so.
#6 Holiday Stone
As I mentioned above, I have respect for many of the runners in here. This guy is one of them. He’s in pretty good form right now, and has won two straight. Last time was his first time running this short of a distance, but it was successful. Eddie Kenneally specializes in these turf sprints, winning at 27%. If the pace heats up early on, this guy will be flying at the end. Declan Cannon has ridden him his last four races, and he stays today. He and Kenneally hit at over 30% as a team.
#1 Fast Boat
I’m a fan of this horse. I’ve won with him his last two starts. This is a step up in class, but he’s a solid turf sprinter. Although I will admit, I’m not thrilled about Robby Albarado riding him today. Robby has had a very quiet year, and turf sprints aren’t exactly his specialty. Turf sprints are the specialty of trainer Joe Sharp, so we’ll see how this guy runs today. I will still be using this horse in some wagers.
Race 7
#8 Peppered
I’m going to take a shot with this guy. He’s a big price on the ML, but I think he’s worth a look. He’s taking a drop in class, plus cutting back in distance. I think both will be beneficial for him. I see some speed horses in here that might not want this 7F distance, so I’m hoping they get a little tired late, and this one can mow them all down. Julie Burke will ride. And with limited mounts this meet, she’s been quite effective.
#2 Grade One
This one is also a class dropper. He finished a decent third at Churchill last time out in September. That looks to be a live race considering the top two finishers from that race each won their subsequent start. As I mentioned, this gelding has been absent since September, but Jimmy Divito is 25% off the layoff. Plus this horse looks to be training very well right now. He looks like he could be the controlling speed in this race. Martin Garcia will be aboard.
#9 Nola Win
Not sure what has gotten into this horse the past two races. He showed a lot of improvement in those starts, including a nice maiden breaking win last time out. I think he’ll probably be pressing the pace in this race, so the outside post might not be a big issue. Brian Hernandez rode last time, and he’ll stick with him today.
Race 8
#3 Passion Play
Another full field and competitive race here. No one really jumped out to me, but I’ll give this colt a look. I’m hoping the cutback from two turns to one turn will be what he needs here. His last two races weren’t bad, and the 6F seemed a little short, and maybe the 9F were a tad too long given the track conditions. I think he’ll be toward the back in this race, so the more speed up front, the better. He has hit the board two of fours times here at Churchill. Joe Rocco is familiar with him. Dallas Stewart trains.
#8 Coltonator
He’ll be dropping in for a tag for the first time. He’s been running fairly competitively against allowance foes recently. They added blinkers last time, but I honestly didn’t notice much improvement. What intrigues me the most today is the stretch out in distance. He has shown an even running style while sprinting, and with A.P. Indy on the top side of that pedigree, he might want more ground. Gregory Foley trains, and Brian Hernandez rides.
#4 Make Noise
I think this gelding could be the pacesetter. He’s coming out of some sprint races in which he sat close to some solid fractions. He returned off the five month layoff a couple weeks ago and ran alright. He may have needed that race, and could take a step forward off of that effort. Thomas Van Berg is having a nice meet, and he re-enlists Florent Geroux to ride. Flo rode him two starts back as well. Geroux is currently hit at a 30% clip at the meet.
Race 9
#6 Sally’s Curlin
This 3YO filly is really coming into her own. She’s won three in a row and has been improving with each and every start. If you draw a line through the Indiana Oaks race, she’s undefeated since they added the blinkers. She’s had a good amount of pace to run at in all those wins. I don’t know that there will be quite as much in a race like this, but she’s in such good form, that I’m willing to see what she can do even if the shape of the race is a little different. She’s also been very successful here at Churchill so far, so that’s another bonus. Corey Lanerie rode her for the first time last time, and he is back on today.
#3 Mylady Curlin
This filly is ultra consistent. She’s finished in the money in 12 of her 14 races, including all nine this year. She’s also very adaptable. She can sit close to the pace, she can stalk, or she can come from a little further back. However, in her last couple races she has lost to a couple of today’s rivals, so she’ll need to turn the tables somehow. There are a couple other speed horses in here, so I think Tyler Gaffalione will have her sitting about third early on. She’s undefeated at this distance, so we know she likes this trip.
#1 Moonlit Garden
Another Brad Cox trainee here. She’s another pretty salty runner. She’s multiple graded stakes placed, and she’s earned nearly a half million dollars. That being said, she has had a slight tendency to settle for those minor awards, so that’s where I’d put her in this race also. But on her best day, she can potentially beat a field like this. She should be able to work out a ground saving trip from the inside draw, and she’s got one of the best in the business on her back, Florent Geroux.
Race 10
#7 Easy Shot
He made his return to the races a few weeks ago after being off since the G2 Rebel Stakes back in March. His return race was very good, and even some of his races before the layoff were pretty strong. Keith Desormeaux is 30% with horses second off the break, and as I’ve mentioned many times, he’s having a very strong meet. The horse likes this distance and this track. He might need a little pace to run at, but either way, I think he’ll be finishing strongly at the end. He’s also getting a jockey upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione.
#6 Botero
Another one that will be making his second start after an extended layoff. He returned about a month ago and run pretty well. He set an honest pace in the slop and then got a little tired at the end. This horse has a few layoff lines, so obviously he’s had some issues, but I still think he’s got ability and a good amount of potential. I would assume he’ll be forwardly placed again today, and he’s also getting a rider switch. Florent Geroux will be jumping on for the first time. And if we get anywhere near the 12-1 ML, he’s definitely worth using.
#10 Grit and Curiosity
This gray gelding will be facing winners for the first time, and he’s a little lite on numbers. But, I think he has a look. Peter Miller is red hot right now, and this horse has been fairly consistent. He’s actually never raced on a dry racetrack, so we’ll see if he gets that today. He hasn’t shown the typical Miller speed lately, so he might actually be coming from off the pace in this race. Santo Sanjur rode him last time, and he’s back for this one.
Race 11
#11 Starship Jubilee
This really is a classy mare. She far and away leads this field in both wins and money earned. She’s won over a million dollars in her career. She’s coming into this race in tremendous form. She has done most of her damage at Woodbine, but she has shown up and run well at other tracks as well, so the trip to Louisville doesn’t bother me that much. She’s very versatile. She’s won wire to wire, and she’s won from off the pace. She’s a true professional and knows what her job is. She’ll be a short price, and deservedly so. Luis Contreras will also be flying in for the ride.
#6 Notapradaprice
Another horse that’s coming into this in fantastic form. She’s hit the board in six of seven starts this year, including a G3 win over the summer. She’s now been transferred to the barn of Eddie Kenneally, who hits at 31% with horses first time in his care. She hasn’t raced in a couple months, but Kenneally is also good with layoffs, winning at 30%. There is not a ton of early speed in here, so I’d expect her to be laying on or near the lead. Corey Lanerie will be picking up the mount.
#8 Limari
This horse has been kind of a head scratcher to me. She cruised through the maiden and allowance ranks this past spring. But lately she’s been burning some money. I think her best races come when she’s involved early, so maybe they’ll decide to put her back on the lead in this spot. She’s had success here at Churchill before, and at this distance. If she can revert back to her form from earlier this year, she’s a main contender in here. Florent Geroux in the irons.
Race 12
#9 Executive Branch
This looks like a decent edition of a maiden special weight race. This colt will be making career start number two today. His first one was very good at Keeneland last month, finishing second in a field of 11. He had a little trouble at a crucial point in that race, but still ran on well. Hopefully he can build off that. Since that race he has been transferred to the barn of Robertino Diodoro. Diodoro has good numbers with horses first time for him, however, he’s having a cold meet. His jockey for this race, David Cohen, is also hitting at a low percentage. So while I definitely like the horse, the other factors do concern me slightly. But I’ll be using.
#2 Chief Executive
Another horse that has been recently moved to a new barn. This gelding is now under the care of Victoria Oliver. She’s had a solid meet. I think the cutback in distance may help this horse, although I’m not certain of that. His best race was actually going around two turns. But I’m hoping he’ll sit off the pace a little, and the cutback will allow him to finish a little better than he did last time. Chris Landeros rode him for his last race, and he sticks around for this one.
#8 Mountain Air
This colt by Speightstown will be making his debut today. Obviously this is a little later than they had probably hoped to get him to the races, so he’s most likely had some issues in the past. But his work tab leading into this looks strong. And Brendan Walsh hits about 10% with first time starters. He enlists one of the best jockeys at the meet, Tyler Gaffalione, to ride. Walsh and Gaffalione are successful together, so that could be a sign that this horse is live.