A nice 12 race card here on this Thanksgiving holiday. Hopefully we can get lucky and catch a few winners.
Race 1
#2 Pitch Count
First off the claim here for trainer Ingrid Mason. He ran second in a $25,000 claimer at Keeneland last time out. She now runs him for $50,000, which I think might be a vote of confidence. Mason is 22% off the claim. This guy is in pretty good form this year. He has four wins, the rest of the field has a combined three wins this year. There isn’t an abundance of speed in here, so hopefully he can be forwardly placed. Florent Geroux rides.
#6 Hollywood Critic
This guy is also first off the claim. He was claimed by trainer David Vance a couple weeks ago out of a $40,000 claimer on turf. He’s putting this gelding back on the dirt today, where he has hit the board in all four career fast dirt races. Vance is an impressive 4 for 12 when going turf to dirt with a $5.65 ROI. He’s also adding blinkers for this one. Julien Leparoux in the saddle; he and Vance hit at about 25% together.
#5 Discreetness
I’m throwing this guy in here because I don’t think this race has a real standout. He hasn’t raced in about 15 months, but I think this one mile trip suits him well. Trainer Bill Fires has this horse in his barn a couple years ago when he was a 2YO and a 3YO, so he knows the horse very well. He has a good series of 5F works coming into this, so we’ll see if he has enough fitness to make an impact. Corey Lanerie gets aboard.
Race 2
#6 Whenwillicuagain
It’s been an intermittent career so far for this filly. She debuted on the turf in December of 2016, then didn’t race again until this May. She broke her maiden here at Churchill that day, off that long layoff. Now she hasn’t been seen for the past four months. I think she can run well fresh, as she did before. She looks to be a pace factor today. There is other speed in here, so hopefully she doesn’t get caught in a wicked duel; but I think her maiden win was strong enough that she’s worth a play in this spot at 6-1 on the ML. Trainer Paul McGee is having a nice meet, seven of his 11 runners have finishes in the money. The red hot Edgar Morales rides.
#7 Mischievous Lass
This girl looks to be one of the better closers in here. She was claimed last time out by trainer Dennis Roberson. He bumps her up to this $30,000N2L level. She’s pretty consistent in that even though she doesn’t often find the winners circle, she usually does get a piece of the pie. She’s also well traveled; this is her 13th career start, and it will come at her sixth different race track. Albin Jimenez is the jockey.
#3 Say It Softly
She is the new face in here, having just broke her maiden last time out. She did that for $12,500, but she did it very impressively. Sat behind the pace and drew off in the stretch. I think she has some efforts in her past that could beat this group, but I don’t want to take a short price on a horse facing winners for the first time. Corey Lanerie has ridden her multiple times in the past, and he is back today, even for the new barn off the claim. That’s a positive sign.
Race 3
#4 Clench
Steve Asmussen sends out this 2YO colt by The Factor. He’ll be making career start number four. This will be the lowest level he has competed at so far. Two tries in maiden special weight company were too tough, and his last race for $50,000 was in the slop. I’m willing to give him a chance here today. It does somewhat concern me that he has similar running lines in all three races; shows good speed, but really gives way in the stretch. Hopefully he shows decent speed today, but is also able to finish.
#8 The Kid in Syd
Second time starter here for trainer Ken McPeek. He comes out of the same $50,000 muddy race that I mentioned above. He didn’t do much running that day, but I’m willing to draw a line through it; rough start, sloppy conditions, etc. This horse has a decent sprint pedigree, so I look for some improvement today. McPeek is about 13% with second time starters, and he gets Brian Hernandez to rise. They are 25% when they team up here at Churchill.
#5 Sacred Kiki Bird
The most experienced runner in the field. This will already be start number six for this Indiana bred. He’s been facing state bred maiden special weight foes, and making a good account of himself. My concern with him is that he always seem to settle for the minor awards. He is able to show some pace, and then can’t quite sustain it. Trainer Paul Holthus is 22% when he goes to maiden claiming company, so this is usually a pretty successful move for him. Rodney Prescott will ride.
Race 4
#4 Clever Serve
This filly is by far the most experienced runner in this race with 25 career starts. She doesn’t often find the winners circle, but I think she faces a beatable field in here. I also think getting back to a one turn race will benefit here. In her two turn efforts she seems to lose a little punch at the end. All three of her lifetime victories have come here at Churchill, so this is definitely her preferred track. She doesn’t possess much early speed, so she will need a little pace help up front. Steve Asmussen trains (and owns), Ricardo Santana rides.
#3 Lucky Move
This John Hancock trainee is switching back to the dirt here. Her last race was a pretty good effort on soft turf at Churchill against starter allowance foes. Her race two back was a defeat by only a neck going today’s one mile distance at Keeneland. I think she lacks a little class, but she seems to be in her best career form right now, so she’s worth a look. Albin Jimenez rides this New York bred today.
#6 As Fast as You Can
I’m giving this long shot daughter of Paddy O’ Prado a chance to hit the board today. Her fast main track efforts are respectable, three wins from seven starts. She beat $30,000 claimers last time out at Keeneland. Trainer Michael Tomlinson is 25% with runners that have won their last start, so that means he pretty proficient at placing his runners in spots that they can win. Julien Leparoux has been aboard for the last two races, and he is up again today. Going this one mile distance, I look for her to stalk the pace and then make her move.
Race 5
#10 Kid Perfect
10-1 on the ML is a nice price on this son of Majesticperfection. He draws the outside here, but I think that is a good thing. All the other speed burners are drawn inside of him, so he should be able to sit off the first flight, and hopefully get the jump of the closers turning for home. I’m willing to draw a line through his last race because he got banged around at the start. He’s got a couple sharp works leading up to today, and if four lifetime starts on the Churchill turf, he’s finished in the money in all of them. Chris Landeros rides, and he’s having a really solid meet.
#9 Undrafted
This eight year old has danced a lot of dances. He’ll be making career start number 39 here today. It’s no secret what he’s gonna do, he’s gonna drop back and try to make one run at them in the stretch. He has shown a huge affinity for this turf course as well, two wins and two seconds in his four career races here. His last race at Keeneland was a little flat, but he looks to be training well out of it. Trainer Wesley Ward is a master at these turfs sprints, so you have to respect his runners in these spots. Corey Lanerie gets aboard, and he was in the saddle for an impressive win on him here at Churchill last fall.
#2 Extravagant Kid
This gelding looks to be one of the pace factors in here. He has shown good speed in most of his turf sprints, and today he’s drawn down inside so I think he could be sent. He was only beaten a length in the G2 Woodford at Keeneland last time out. Trainer Brendan Walsh is a robust 27% in turf sprints, this is definitely one of his specialties, considering he’s only hitting at 12% on the year overall. Tyler Gafflione rides, and he has ridden this horse before; back in the summer of 2017 at Gulfstream Park.
Race 6
#7 Irish Mischief
First time starter here for this daughter of Into Mischief. Trainer Brad Cox is 22% with FTS, and 21% with 2YOs. This filly was purchased for only $40,000 at the Keeneland September sale in 2017, Into Mischief’s stud fee is $100,000, so it’s a little concerning that her price was kind of low. However, her works look pretty solid on paper, and I see it as a positive that they are debuting her in maiden special weight company to see what she’s got. Florent Geroux takes the call, he and Cox hit at nearly 30% together.
#5 Vomba
Al Stall sends out this second time starter by Candy Ride. She showed speed and faded in her debut last month at Keeneland. I’m not a huge fan of that running line, but Stall is 31% with 2nd time starters, so she could improve today. Her works out of that race look fairly solid. She draws pretty well here in post 5. Of the runners that have competed so far, she definitely looks like the best one. So if one of these first time starters don’t run well, this girl could be tough to beat. Julien Leparoux is the pilot.
#12 Sonoma Storm
Tough draw for this firster by the young sire Fed Biz. Ricardo Santana gets aboard for Norm Casse. The work tab looks solid, and Casse has had decent success with first time starters (15%), and with 2YOs (15%). Sometimes when a debut runner draws to the far outside they break a little sideways, so that will be something to watch. If she’s able to break clean and get a forward position that could help her overcome the outside post.
Race 7
#8 Sterling Miss
She’s 5-1 on ML, not sure we’ll get that. She definitely looks like the horse to beat. Her last race was a poor effort back in August, so she’s been off since then. Her works looks solid coming in, and trainer Tom Amoss is 22% with this type of layoff. She also broke her maiden on debut, so that tells me she has the ability to run well fresh. This is her first time in for a tag. Two back she beat 2nd level allowance foes at Indiana. She also looks quite versatile. She’s won wire to wire, she’s won while stalking the pace, and she’s won from as back as eight lengths. So hopefully Edgar Morales can work out a good trip, and I think they’ll be tough in this spot.
#6 Honor With Pride
This 3YO filly leads the field with four career victories. Three of those have come here on the main track at Churchill. She projects to settle off the pace and probably make one run. A couple weeks ago she demolished a field of ten $30,000 claimers, so they’re bumping her up to $50,000 here today. Declan Cannon rides, and one thing that jumped out to me was, whenever he rides her, she runs very well. This year he’s ridden her four times, she won three of those times, and her one loss was only by a head.
#4 Natasha Fatale
This long shot might be worth adding into the exotics. She’s 2-for-2 since being moved to the barn of Hugo Rodriguez and also the addition of blinkers. She’s been idle for the past six weeks, and Rodriguez is almost 30% with this length of layoff. She shows a bullet work on the tab over the main track at Hawthorne. Florent Geroux gets aboard, so that’s also a positive sign.
Race 8
This race is a pass for me. It looks like a super competitive maiden special weight. I could make a case for about 10 out of the 12 horses having a chance to win. Let’s move on to the final four races on the card.
Race 9
#5 English Affair
Trainer Rusty Arnold sends out this 4YO filly by English Channel. Last out in the G3 Dowager at Keeneland she was moved up from 3rd to 2nd via DQ. All in all, she put in a nice effort that day. She was able to sit midpack, and make a nice run in the stretch. She’s shortening up to a mile and an eighth today, which I think will be to her benefit. She also has hit the board in all three career races here at Churchill. If you draw a line through her race two back at Kentucky Downs, she has put together a solid year; no wins, but she’s always knocking on the door. Hopefully today is her day. Corey Lanerie gets aboard.
#9 La Manta Gris
I’m using the other Rusty Arnold trainee in here as well. She comes off a nice allowance win at Keeneland going a mile and a half. Before that she was facing some tough company on the east coast this summer. She has a couple nice works since that last Keeneland race, so hopefully she is holding her form. My one concern with her is that she has no speed, at all. She will most likely be last through much of this race, so well if she can get enough pace and racing luck. Declan Cannon rides; he rode her to her maiden breaking score here at Churchill last year.
#1 I Remember Mama
It’s hard to knock this filly. She shows up with a solid effort each and every time. She has hit the board in all seven of her starts. Her trainer Thomas Drury also really excels in these situations. He’s 29% with his turf runners, and 30% in route races. This filly has never tried this mile and a eighth distance, but her breeding suggests it should be no problem. It looks like jockey Brian Hernandez had a few options in this race, and he chooses this one.
Race 10
#5 Altito
I know this guy has been facing much weaker competition lately, but I think he as a chance today. First, he loves this Churchill main track; eight starts, four wins and two seconds. His last two starts here he made very impressive moves to come from swoop up his rivals. Another reason I like him today is his rider, Julien Leparoux. The last six times he’s been aboard have resulted in three wins and two seconds. Julien is a good come from behind rider, so I think he fits this horse well. Trainer David Vance has been on fire this meet with his limited starts. He’s four for seven, with a third.
#1 MG Warrior
This colt is the youngster of the bunch. He’ll be making just his 7th career start, the fewest in the field. He shows up every time though, five out of six in the exacta. He also likes Churchill Downs, as does his trainer. Dallas Stewart is having a super good meet, winning at 25%, and over 50% ITM. He draws down inside for this one, so he should get a ground saving trip. Corey Lanerie gets back aboard, and he’s had previous success on this horse.
#7 Midnight Pleasure
I’m not exactly sure how to feel this one. My brain tells me he is just a one turn closing sprinter, but my gut tells me he’s going to run well again today. I think he’s in the best form of his career, and he likes Churchill Downs. He’s won three straight at three different tracks, jockey Chris Landeros has been on for the past two wins, and he’s on again today. When he rides for Mick Ruis, their win rate is 3-for-7.
Race 11
#6 Prado’s Sweet Ride
This 6YO mare is kind of the old lady of the group. She’s the oldest, and the most experienced horse in the field. However she does lack dirt experience, but I think she might like the dirt. Her last dirt effort was a solid effort at Hawthorne back in April. It was only a five horse field, but it was against males. She was able to sit close to the pace, which I think could help her today. Their is other speed in here, and I’m hoping her stamina can kick in down the stretch. Many of today’s rivals are untested at this mile and eighth distance. This mare has many long distance turf efforts under her belt, so the distance should not be a problem. Florent Geroux rides this Illinois bred for trainer Chris Block.
#3 Dutch Parrot
This filly is the only horse in the field that has a win at a mile and an eighth on the dirt. She lacks early speed, but if the others start to struggle at the end, she come rolling down the stretch. I think her last race was a good effort, it’s a little lite on the pace figure, but she overcame a rough start to beat the other five rivals that day. Trainer Bill Van Meter has had a good meet, three wins from six starters. Ricardo Santana rides, and he has familiarity with this horse.
#1 Divine Miss Grey
There’s no denying that this girl is the class of the field. She’s been running well against grades stakes company most of the year. Her race two back in the Beldame at Belmont would make her almost unbeatable today. She was second behind Wow Cat that day, and Wow Cat came back to run second in the Breeders Cup Distaff. Divine Miss Grey looks to be one of the main pace factors, and she draws the inside post, so I would expect her to be on or very close to the lead. She’s an astounding 11-for-22 in her racing career. Tyler Gaffalione rides for trainer Danny Gargan.
Race 12
#7 Artistic Quality
This Lemon Drop Kid filly looks to be one of the main contenders in here. She’s making her second start while in the Bret Calhoun barn. And as I’ve mentioned before, second time with a new trainer is an angle that I like. They added blinkers for her last race at Keeneland. It was a good second place effort, but she drifted out in the stretch. Hopefully that issue has been corrected. She draws post 2 here, so I’m hoping for a ground saving trip. She figures to sit off the pace and do her best running late. Calhoun is about 21% with second off the layoff types, and he gets the red hot Chris Landeros to ride.
#1 Celia’s Song
This girl ran a very nice second last time at Keeneland while making her first start on the grass. She was up close to honest fractions and still finished well to only lose by a half length. She looks to be a pace player in here, especially since she drew the inside post. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 27% with horses second of the layoff. Corey Lanerie in the saddle, and when he teams up Kenneally at Churchill they hit at nearly 30%.
#8 Latest Version
I’m throwing this bomb into the mix. She’s 20-1 on the ML, but I’m willing to give her a look. She hasn’t raced since February at Gulfstream Park. She finished fourth in a field of five and was beaten by ten lengths. I agree, none of that sounds too impressive. However, that was her first start on the grass, and she’s been laid off since that effort; so she might have had issues coming out of that race. Her breeding says that routing on the grass should not be an issue, and her works leading up to this are fairly quick and solid for a barn that ain’t known for fast works. Trained by Victoria Oliver, and ridden by Edgar Morales. Can’t go wrong with Morales lately. The recently former apprentice has been locked in the past couple months.