Churchill Downs
November 21, 2019
A nice 10 race card on tap today. I think there are some chances for nice prices.
Good Luck!
Race 1
#1 Wallet
Not a real pretty group. In this type of race I look for horses that have already shown some ability going a route of ground. At these low levels, not everyone will be able to handle this trip. This horse ran pretty well last time out at Keeneland, going today’s distance. That race was off a ten month layoff, so he might take another step forward here. He set easy fractions that day, and continued on for the most part. He did drift out and bother another horse, but that could have been fatigue kicking in. Declan Cannon rode last time, and he’ll ride today.
#2 Campaign Spy
Well, you’ll have to just draw a line through his last race, as he was basically eased. He’s had a few months off since then, and his previous races before that would definitely make him a contender in this field. He’s taking a drop in class, plus he has some speed. So couple that with the inside post position, and I think their plan will be to send out of there and try to be forwardly placed. Channing Hill will ride for Wayne Catalano.
#9 World Tax War
This guy’s form is all over the place. Just a few months ago he was running somewhat competitively against maiden special weights, and now it appears he has headed south. They took the major drop in class last time, which did result in a placing. However, that was still a pretty weak race. His only dry on the dirt before left a lot to be desired. But maybe if some others get leg weary in here, he can pass some at the end to get a piece of this. Brian Hernandez in the irons.
Race 2
#4 Sweet Carli
After six tries against open maidens, they dropped in for a tag last time out. She ran pretty well to get second in a field of ten. She’ll be cutting back in distance from 7F to 6F today, and I think that’ll be alright for her. She has speed, but not sure she’ll get the lead in this sprint, but I’d still expect her to be forward early. Jon Court has ridden her a couple times in the past, so he’s familiar with her.
#3 Stolen Beauty
She faced a level below this at Keeneland last time out, but those races at Keeneland can be difficult. On numbers, she’s definitely a main contender in this spot. She also has speed, but with Julien Leparoux aboard, I think maybe they’ll sit just off the pace. She looks like the one that could get the best trip. Stephen Lister is a high percentage trainer, and he’s 30% in maiden claiming races.
#5 Zebecca
Class dropper here. All four prior starts were against maiden special weights. If you draw a line through the route race, and the sloppy race last time, her two dry track dirt sprints are alright. Ron Moquett is about 21% when dropping into maiden claimers, so he’s effective when making this move. This filly will also be getting a rider upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione.
Race 3
#2 Spearette
I’m going to take a chance with a little bit of a price here. This mare has won two in a row, which is something I look for with horses that race at this level. These low level horses can be quite inconsistent, so I like the fact that she has a winning streak right now. She leads the field with nine wins overall. She also has four wins at this distance. John McKee has ridden this horse to good performances in the past, so I’m hoping for that again today. Vernon Coyle owns and trains.
#6 Cook Memories
I think getting back to a two turn race could be key for this one. She’s in good form at the moment, four decent races in a row. There isn’t much pace in this race, so I think she’ll be sitting second or there, and will probably get a good trip. Question will be if she’s good enough. She’s lost to a few of today’s rivals before. Orlando Mojica will be the pilot.
Race 4
#10 Elle M’a Souri
This filly showed good improvement in her last race. It was just her second race here in the states. It looks like the distance is something that she likes, and I don’t think that can be said for everyone in here. She closed pretty well into a fairly slow pace last time, going today’s distance of a mile and an eighth. She had an outside draw that day, and unfortunately she has the outside post again today. I’d expect her to just drop toward the back, get over, save ground if possible, and make one run in the stretch. I think she’ll be finishing the best of all. Brian Hernandez rides for Cherie DeVaux.
#8 Moving Moon
At 10-1 on the morning line, she intrigues me a little bit. However, I think the turf condition matters for her. It appears that she doesn’t really like give in the ground, so I think a firm course would be beneficial, unfortunately I’m not sure we’ll get that today. But if we do, give her an extra look. Her one race on firm ground was a good closing second. Also, the stretch out should not bother her at all given her pedigree. Bill Mott trains and Santo Sanjur rides.
#2 Daddymademedoit
This girl has already had a handful of chances and hasn’t gotten the job done. I don’t really like her as a win candidate, but on her best day, she’s probably good enough to get a piece of it. I’m not sure this is really the distance that she wants, but I have that concern about a few of them in here. She has a better than average workout since her last race, so maybe she’ll show a little improvement today. Miguel Mena in the irons.
Race 5
#4 Party Lights
Huge class dropper here. Going all the way from straight maidens, down to $15,000 today. She showed a little improvement last time with the blinkers added. She showed better speed, and I’d expect her to be on the pace in here. The slight cutback in distance could also help, considering she got kind of tired going a mile in that last race. This is not a strong bunch on paper, and she’ll be a pretty short price, but I don’t see many others to like in here. Tyler Gaffalione will be riding for Mike Maker.
#3 Golden Lily
She’ll be making her debut here. But considering the rest of the field, maybe this filly can finish in the money. This seems like a logical starting point for her. Keith Desormeaux has sent out some live runners at the meet, four starters, with two seconds and two thirds. He doesn’t win often with firsters, but like I said, I think she’s at least worth using underneath at a price. Gabriel Saez will be aboard.
Race 6
#4 Pick Up the Fone
Most of this girl’s races have been pretty good efforts. Mike Maker claimed her two back, she ran a good second that day, and she also ran a good second last time at Keeneland. I think her form is trending in the right direction. Ideally, I hope she sits a little behind the speed in here; I don’t want to see her get into a speed battle with a couple others. If she can work out a good trip, I think she’s the horse to beat. Tyler Gaffalione will be riding.
#7 Little Red Frog
I’m going to give this girl another chance. I bet her last time out, and it was a pretty poor showing by her. Her maiden breaker two back was a good race, where she sat midpack and edged past in the stretch, defeating 11 other rivals. Maybe she just didn’t like the track at Keeneland last time, not sure. Florent Geroux will be getting on her for the first time, so maybe he’ll move her forward. He’s been very effective in the past when riding for this barn.
#6 Such Great Heights
This is a new shooter in this group. She hasn’t raced since June when she broke her maiden on debut at Laurel Park. That was a sharp effort, and now she’s been moved to the barn of Aaron West. West is about 12% with new horses, and he’s 23% off the layoff. She’s the longest shot on the ML, but I think she’s worth using. None of these horses look like world beaters yet, so why not take a chance with a horse that hasn’t done anything wrong yet.
Race 7
#8 Uncapped
Very competitive race here. I eventually landed on this guy for a couple reasons. First of all, I think he’s faced some pretty good company this year, including a couple runners that ran in the Breeders Cup turf sprint. I think this race will set up well for him. I see him sitting a little off the pace, and then rallying in the stretch. His last race was not very good, I am hoping that maybe it was the give in the ground. So if we can get a firmer course today, that could help him. Plus, Brendan Walsh hits at 24% in turf sprints, so this is definitely one of his strong areas. Tyler Gaffalione will be aboard today.
#4 Infinite
This gelding will be making his second start off a seven month layoff. His return race was bad at all. He contested the pace and held on for third. I think that was a pretty strong race also. He could definitely improve off that effort. We all know Wesley Ward is great with turf sprinters, and he’s 25% with second off the layoff. I’d expect him to be mixing it up early. Martin Garcia will be in the saddle.
#3 Girt and Curiosity
This one will be facing winners for the first time today. He broke his maiden going a mile at Indiana Downs last time. That wasn’t a bad effort, but he’ll definitely need to improve some more to win this race; but I think he’s capable. Peter Miller is on fire at the meeting: five wins, a second, and a third, from just eight runners. He’s strong with sprinters on the grass, as well. This particular horse hasn’t shown the typical Miller early speed, so he might be coming from the pace in this race. Santo Sanjur in the irons.
Race 8
#3 Eastside Boy
I’m just going to draw a line through his last race. It was on the turf, and maybe he just wasn’t interested. Almost all of his main track races have been competitive, and he’s hit the board in all six of them. He ran a good race at this distance two starts ago at Keeneland. That is important to me, because not all of these lower level horses really want this distance. He was claimed out of the Keeneland race by Angel Montano, so I’m hoping second race off the claim will be better. I think he’ll get a good trip in here, and be forwardly placed. Miguel Mena has the mount.
#2 Cantrell Hill
This colt by More Than Ready will be facing winners for the first time. He broke his maiden last out at Keeneland going a route of ground. They removed the blinkers a couple starts ago, and that seemed to help. I think this race will have a fairly slow pace, so I expect him and my top pick to be involved early on. Declan Cannon has been aboard for his last four starts and he’s riding today.
#6 Eskendereyas Dream
I just briefly want to mention this one as a longshot possibility. I’m not sure he can win the race, but maybe he can hit the board. He easily beat a field of nine last time at Indiana Downs. He’ll need to take another big step forward for sure. But his last start was his first with Lasix, so that might have done the trick. At 15-1, he could spice up the exotics.
Race 9
#1a Irish Mischief
I know she’s going to be a short price, but I do think she’s a potential standout in this field. Beyer speed figure wise, she’s about 10 points better than the others. She’s got a good outside post position. She does have early speed, but hopefully she can avoid a pace duel, unlike last time. She does not need the lead to be effective. She’s run good races at Churchill before, and she gets reunited with Florent Geroux. Brad Cox trains, and I’m expecting a nice effort.
#7 Summer Delivery
This filly has had a fairly consistent year. Her race two back was very good. Her last race was a slight regression, but it was her first try at this level. Other than the heavy favorite, I think the rest are evenly matched, and that includes this one. She’s tactical, but isn’t a need the lead type. Corey Lanerie is having a good meet, and he’s ridden this horse her last three races. Philip Sims is the trainer.
#9 Annathela
If I had to include a third horse, it’d probably be this one. She’s one of the veterans of this group, making start number 27 today. She seems to have an affinity for Churchill, so that’s beneficial. She has cleared this condition based on her most recent win at this level, so we know she fits. Chris Landeros will ride for Rusty Arnold.
Race 10
#4 Diamonds Enjoy
Alright. We have reached the nightcap, and I’m gonna take a swing here. This horse is the longest shot on the ML at 15-1. However, I think he deserves consideration. He hasn’t raced since July, so there is a layoff concern, but he did win fresh on debut; so he can ran off the break. This horse has had two dirt sprints, and both efforts were decent. He’s sired by Kittens Joy, and we know that routing on the grass should ultimately be this guy’s forte. Trainer Rey Hernandez doesn’t have a winner at the meeting, but on the year he wins at 19%, so he’s definitely a capable trainer. Santo Sanjur has ridden this horse in both starts prior to today, and he’s riding today as well.
#3 Tecumseh’s War
Another horse that might be a nice price. He’s making just his second start. He was a nice maiden winner last month at Indiana Downs. It looks like he’ll be one of the main pace players in this race, and I think that could be dangerous in this spot. The only other speed horse is drawn to his inside, but is also trained by Brad Cox, so I don’t see the stable mates getting into a duel. Julien Leparoux will be in the saddle.
#7 Natural Power
This colt will be making his stateside debut. He’s in the barn of Mark Casse, and owned by Gary Barber. His races overseas prove that he can handle some give in the ground, so if that is the condition here, that could be to his benefit. He will be stretching out in distance and going a route for the first time. Casse is good with horses in his care for the first time, and this horse looks to be training well. Ricardo Santana will in the irons.