Churchill
November 15, 2018
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Race 1
#5 Handsome Harve
I’m hoping the lightbulb came on for this guy in his last start. It was a pretty decent maiden breaking score at Hawthorne. He does have some Churchill experience from earlier this spring, so the track will not be new to him. It could however be a sloppy track today, so that is a slight concern as his prior efforts on off going were not too great. He gets Chris Landeros in the saddle, and he is having a really nice meet so far.
#2 I’ve Got Heart
Fairly significant drop in class for this 3YO. Last time he ran for $30,000, and before that he was in allowance company. His running lines do not look real impressive, but that previous competition was definitely tougher than this bunch he is facing today. I would expect him to be somewhat forwardly placed, and his lone win came with some moisture in the track, so that could benefit him here today. Edgar Morales rides for trainer Doug Anderson.
#6 Escalera
Similar to my top pick in here, I think the lightbulb might have come on for this gelding last time out. It was a really solid effort against $15,000 maiden claimers at Keeneland going today’s distance of one mile. He was able to stalk the pace and just draw away from the competition in the stretch to win by five lengths. Declan Cannon rode him that day, and he is back aboard for this one as well.
Race 2
#8 Parisian Stroll
The stretch out to a route distance seemed to do the trick for this filly. Crushed a field of maidens at Churchill last time out. Set the pace and drew off nicely in the stretch. She’s one of the most consistent runners in the field having hit the board in all four of her starts. If the track comes up sloppy, I don’t think that should be an issue considering Bernardini and Smart Strike are in the bloodlines. Brian Hernandez was the pilot for the maiden breaker, and he’s back aboard today.
#4 Kyniska
This 3YO filly by Stephen Got Even ran on turf last time out at Indiana. I think she definitely prefers dirt, so I expect her to run a little better today. She finished in the money in six of her seven main track efforts, including some off track success. She’s shown some versatility in her running style, she’s been able to lay close, and also made some good moves from off the pace. Julie Burke rides for trainer Jim Corrigan.
#5 Backside Belle
She’s coming in off a little six week freshening. Broke her maiden two back at Ellis Park. She ran an okay third first time against winners last time out here at Churchill at a level slightly above this one. My main concern with her would be the distance. I’m not sure she wants to run this far, but she might be could enough to pick up the pieces today.
Race 3
Given the weather forecast and uncertain turf situation, this race is a pass.
Race 4
#6 Hellofaguy
I actually like this one quite a bit today. If you throw out his turf efforts, he’s been pretty consistent on synthetic and dirt. He also has hit the board all three times that he’s raced at this mile and a sixteenth distance. However, I do have a couple concerns. He was claimed two back by a low volume trainer, and his first race off that claim was not a good showing. He did hit the gate at the start so that could be an excuse. I am also unfamiliar with this jockey, and he only has four wins on the year. But all that being said, if the horse is ready to run today, I think he has a good shot. And 8-1 on the ML.
#2 Silver Giant
This gray gelding looks to be one of the pace factors in here. And drawing down inside I think puts them in a position to send from the start. He won last time out going a mile. In four career starts at today’s distance he has never won, so I look for him more as an underneath play. He has had some success in the slop before, so if he gets that today it could help his chances a little bit. Fernando de la Cruz rides for Tim Glyshaw, and they are about 25% when they team up.
#9 Chasingthegame
He looks like the other main speed presence in here. Draws outside, so that could be helpful especially if the track comes up muddy; he wouldn’t have to deal with a lot kickback if he is forwardly placed and on the outside. He ran a pretty good race last time going a mile and a eighth at Keeneland. He got a little tired at the end, so shortening up a sixteenth today could help him. Stephen Dunn is the owner and trainer, Brian Hernandez rides.
Race 5
#4 Boss Dixie
This was a tough race for me. I’m gonna take a shot with a big price here. He made his debut here back on Halloween in a 6F event. He broke a little awkward, but still made up a little ground and finished 5th in a field of 12. He caught a sloppy track that day, so if it’s sloppy again today at least he has experience with it. Going sprint to route has not been a good angle for trainer Helen Pitts who is 0-17 most recently when trying this. So that is a concern. But the breeding does suggest that a route distance would be possible. Declan Cannon is the jockey.
#10 Galindo
This colt probably has run the best races up to this point. His last two efforts against similar maiden claimers have been decent. Finished third at today’s distance back at Keeneland in October. Calvin Borel has been the pilot for his last two races, and is for this one today. So I expect a come from behind type of trip. He might just be the best of a pretty weak bunch here today.
#8 Defender
This 2YO Winstar homebred is taking the drop from maiden special weight into this $50,000 level. His two races so far leave a lot to be desired. He’s been beaten 19 lengths and then by 15 lengths, but those races were probably more difficult than the one he’s catching today. This guy also has a very nice wet track pedigree if the conditions come up as such. Bill Mott trains, and he is off to a nice start at this meet, already 4 winners. Tyler Gafflione rides.
Race 6
#2 Thegistofit
Returned at Keeneland last month off a 5 month layoff, showed decent speed and then faded in the stretch. I like the cutback to 7F here for this race. And trainer Philip Sims is really good (26%) 2nd off the layoff. This gelding’s lone win came here at Churchill back in May, so we know he likes this track. Robby Albarado gets aboard for the first time.
#7 Dilettante
This 4YO ran at Indiana back in September, and that was his first start in a year. He ran a very respectable second going 5.5F. Now stretches to 7F, but I don’t see that being a major issue considering his lone win was at a mile. He definitely has some back class to go to. In 2017 he ran 5th in the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. His A effort would make him pretty tough in this spot.
#1 Jefazo
First time facing winners today for this recent maiden breaker. He beat $15,000 maidens here at Churchill last out, and it was in the slop, so if he proved he likes those conditions. He was claimed in that race by Chris Hartman, who is about 22% off the claim. He drew the rail last time (just like today), and he was able to rate off the pace and draw away in the stretch. That’s probably the game plan for today as well. Santo Sanjur rides.
Race 7
#9 Upgrade Me
Third career start for this daughter of Exchange Rate. She improved with the addition of lasix last time, to finish a decent second at Keeneland. One issue for her is breaking from the gate. She hasn’t gotten away cleanly in either start, so hopefully she is better today. She weaved her way through traffic last time, so I think that was a good educational race for her. Also, I think the additional furlong of today’s race shouldn’t be a problem for her. Paul McGee trains, Edgar Morales rides.
#7 Philanthropic
This girl will also be making her third career start. Ran a good second on debut at Ellis this summer. She was a little disappointing in her last race at Keeneland, finishing fourth as the favorite. Honestly, I wouldn’t take her at a short price in here; I don’t think she stands out that much. The connections must be respected, however. Steve Asmussen trains, Tyler Gafflione rides. I do find it a little interesting that Steve’s main guy Ricardo Santana is riding another horse in this race, and that Santana hasn’t been on this horse in any of her starts.
#8 Bohemian Bourbon
Ian Wilkes trains this daughter of Midshipman. Debuted in the aforementioned race above that I talked about with my top pick in this race. This girl had a wide trip that day, and will probably improve a little as the distances get longer. She does have a pretty nice wet track pedigree, so if it’s sloppy, she might like that. Julien Leparoux in the saddle.
Race 8
#5 Leombruno
I’m taking a shot here with this 15-1 ML. I’m thinking it’s gonna be a sloppy track, and in five career starts on the off going he has hit the board in all those starts. He also looks to be one of the pace factors, so I’m hoping he can break clean and be forwardly placed. He’s probably been facing been weaker at Thistledowns, but this race looks wide open, so I think it’s worth looking for a price. His eight lifetime victories are actually the most in the field.
#7 Bud’s Bayonet
Although this seven year old gelding only has one win in 10 starts this year, he’s been very consistent; with five seconds and two thirds. His last race was a good effort at Keeneland, losing by just a head in a field of 11. He’s shown nice versatility, having good races when close to the pace, and also good races when he’s come from behind. He’s one for one at today’s 7F distance. Declan Cannon is in the saddle, and he’s ridden him to nice outcomes in the past.
#4 Swamp Ruler
First off the claim here for new trainer and owner Wesley Hawley. Last time out was a pretty impressive winner over $7,500 claimers at Keeneland. He looks to be one of the better closers in here, so if a swift pace develops, I expect him to be rolling late. He’s also had good success on a wet track, so that shouldn’t be a concern. Joe Rocco rides.
Race 9
Given the weather forecast and uncertain turf situation, this race is a pass.
Race 10
#10 Ginormous
This Indiana bred will be racing somewhere other than Indiana Grand for the first time today. Trainer Michael Lauer ships this one in. All but one of her starts have been against state breads, so facing open company could be a challenge. I believe those races in Indiana were a level slightly above this, so maybe the open company won’t be too awful for her. She draws a tough post, so hopefully she can break well and get a decent spot going into the first turn. Albin Jimenez rides, and he is having a very nice meet.
#2 Grats Road
This filly is taking a pretty decent drop in class for this race, so that should be beneficial. She is also the only runner in this field that has a win here at Churchill, so that’s another positive. Julien Leparoux was aboard two back and he his back on today. She draws down inside, so she should get a ground saving trip. Her one wet track effort was not good, but that was also against much tougher competition. David Vance trains, and at the time of posting, he is three for six at the meet so far (50%!).
#1 Tiz Little Bull
This 5 year old mare comes out of a decent effort in slop last time at Keeneland. She finished 3rd against $20,000N2L. This will be her second start from the Kelly Von Hemel barn, so she could improve a little. Second time for a trainer is an angle that I like. She’s finished third both times she’s tried today’s distance of a mile and a sixteenth. CJ McMahon is in the saddle.