We are back in action at Churchill, and hopefully we can put the Derby behind us. It sure was a doozy and will be talked about for many years. Looking at today’s card it’s not quite what last Thursday’s card was but someone has to win and I think there’s some good value today.
Race 1
4-5-8
4- Romani – Ward drops this filly to a bottom level hoping for a score. Is also second off a layoff in which Ward is 22% and comes off some very nice works. Her speed figures are at or above most in the race and I see a little price favourite taking the first.
5- Memorabilia – Ran A great race last out at Indiana and looking for something similar here as it looks like she has found her level.
8- Dixieland Punkin- hit rock bottom last out at Indiana in the climbing ranks and got her first score ever. Running line says weaved through up in time which tells me she had lotta horse in that last 16th. I think she’s finally found her level. Should get a nice price.
Race 2
4-3-2
4- Picture Perfect USA – Ward two-year-old Filly first-time starter with some nice works, as we all know he’s done very well this spring with similar. I would guess she’s a cut below the rest as she comes into a maiden claiming race in her first start.
3- Annabelles Babe- raced against much better in her only outing at Keeneland and did not disgrace her self. Looking for a strong race with the addition of blinkers and a favourable post.
2- Tooreadytobid- A bit of a big value play here as this first time starter shows up after four out of five nice workouts. She should show some speed based on the gate works recently even though she was a $1200 yearly purchase.
Race 3
4-1-2
4- peace love Bread – I like the fact that she is coming off a layoff which is a strong point at 27% for the trainer. Her race at Hawthorne in November was very credible and I’m looking for similar here. That was her first race with the blinkers and her second race was over the poly at Turfway against much tougher, looking for value.
1- Cimarron – drops back to the claiming level from her March 14 race at the fairgrounds. In her last she raced against much tougher on the turf and I don’t think she liked either.
2- Nautia – seems always be coming at the end against tougher and therefore I look for her to be even closer seeing she is dropping down to this level. She does have one win at the distance a long while back and you should get better value than the 7 to 2 in the morning line.
Race 4
4-7-8
4- Verhalen- not much to pick here in this low level claimer. This four-year-old colt dropped big time for trainer Sharp, as he does well with long layoffs in this cold has had some nice workouts coming in. If he has any talent you should win this race.
7- Freefall – he is taking a freefall in class as he goes from maiden $30,000 to made in $10,000 for his fourth race ever. They try blinkers for the first time and I like the combination of trainer jockey.
8- Survey- obviously didn’t like the sloppy track in the last end is yet another dropping down for this race. The connections are talented and this three-year-old should be there at the wire.
Race 5
4-6-2
4- Spackle – The drop-down and blinkers seem to be a favourable position I am taking today as this one follows suit. Has not really had a bad race with tougher and with these quality connections the drop-down and blinkers I could see a mid priced winner.
6- Gottaflathaveher- As her name states I do have her in the second spot, dropping quality connections should like the distance and be able to carry her speed through this mile and16th.
2- Finer Things- Drop down quality connections first time on dirt who the heck knows.
Race 6
6-8-3
6- trapezoid – Very consistent when you remove the last two turf attempts at Fairgrounds. I’m a fan of the connections and the recent speed figures and the odds should be of great value.
8- Carrier landing – first off the claim for a trainer that does very well with this angle. Keeping him at the same level and looking forward to three straight wins. 34% off first time a claim and 25% off this layoff are all great angles.
3- Lord Simba- I like this guy to be in the mix. Has a positive jockey change comes off a very nice race with a quality speed figure and should show speed early.
Race 7
3-4-8
3- Focused- this runner was on my watchlist after her last race at Keeneland, I made a note that she did get in a bit of trouble and could do well here. There is a concern with the abbreviated distance. She will be flying in the lane. Probably my big bet for the day in exotics and horizontal wagers.
4- Egoli- comes in off a pretty long layoff, trainer ward has a 26% when off this angle. Her first race was outstanding leading into a run at Belmont in a grade 3. She did not fare well and went on the shelf and comes back with some nice works.
8- Dream Boat Anna – first time blinkers and first time turf for those three-year-old Filly. I think she will show big-time speed from the gate just not sure how far she can go.
Race 8
9-10-11
9- All I do is dream of you – Looking to the outside in today’s finale for this low level claimer. This guy seems to get claimed every week and recently at this level has done very well. He is 50% in the money at Churchhill and his last race at Oaklawn was outstanding with the apprentice rider.
10- Cha Mono – super consistent and has not run a bad race in about a year. He shows that he can come from the outside and get position to pounce in the lane. Also shows an affinity for the track and goes for quality connections. The slight raise in class is not a concern.
11- Lindante- comes in with a slight drop shortening up and distance and going for quality connections. A good reference point would be the February 1 race at Santa Anita roughly the same distance and class in which he had a very good speed figure and came up just short.
A bit of a low level card today always look for value, and as you can see from my pics may the 4s be with you.