Welcome everyone to week two of the column at Churchill Downs! Last week was not horrible despite a negative ROI on the week as the top picks only went 1-10 but our 2nd choice carried us home going 4-10. This is mostly a result of not accepting that the track was giving us a few good favorites, and I tried to play around them. Sometimes we just must accept that a favorite is the most logical horse in the race and move on.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
It looks like as of writing they are calling for a cloudy day with scattered storms or showers. Could be changes here but I will cap best I can for the turf action.
Race 1 8.5F- Dirt
Interesting race here for the distance and with this field. I think 8 SAMARONTI and 6 AND SEEK could be up front early fighting one another along with the 4 CIGAR BOX. Of these the 4 should fade quickly and leave the other two all alone. I really like 8 SAMARONTI here even at the 5/2 ML that we see, as I do not see a pace battle that allows the closers to get up to the front. The switch to Gaffalione is a good one for Brendan Walsh as they have won 25% of 67 trips together. I will use 3 COMEDIAN and 5 SOUL BEAM underneath. It should be noted that 5 SOUL BEAM is making a first start after being gelded making the first trip to Churchill Downs. With the combination of Bridgmohan and Shirer winning at 35%, albeit usually against a weaker colony, I will take a shot with the horse as a long shot in some horizontals.
Thoughts:8-5-6-3 Longshot: 5
Race 2 5F- Dirt
Little 2-year old are everywhere here! Looking at the pedigree’s the crowd is going to be drawn to the 11 BOSSY MOMENT, 1 YOGURT and 3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES. All with solid bloodlines, but for a 2-year-old first time starter, I do not like the wide post for the 11 BOSSY MOMENT as too many things can happen especially at the price this horse goes off at. It should be noted though that Asmussen is 16% with 2-year-old first time starters, so hard to discount much today. After pedigree analysis, I will look at the workout times and try to get a feeling for how they may run. My eye keeps going back to the 7 TIZ A BIT LUCKY- she has decent enough workouts and at a 10-1 ML with if Tonalist offspring ran a bit more as 2 year old’s I would be excited for a nice price. The 6 Blue Grass Anna seems to draw a good spot here and if the young fillies break well, Lanerie should sit a good trip. I like seeing the decent 5F workout this month followed up by a pair of 4-furlong outings. 5-1 ML seems fair here, despite John Hancock only winning 7% with 2-year old. The 4 LONG MONDAY, I want to support and if the tote action tells a story I will. Unproven trainer, starting a barn with some good background learning and an unproven Tamarkuz sire seems like the perfect combination to blow up the early pick 5.
Thoughts:6-7-11-3 Longshot: 4
Race 3 8.5F- Dirt
On pace this could be a 2-horse race between the 4 QUIET DAWN and the 7 CHINA CAT. Both short on the morning line but a quick glance through the past performances leads me to think that these horses may not fit this level at Churchill Downs well, given recent efforts and this is a good race to spread for coverage. Should be noted that they are both first time facing winners and neither won in an impressive fashion to come here and be so short. The 5 BE AUTHENTIC, disappointed at Oaklawn Park last out but that race is proving to have been a good field as several have returned out to good performances at Churchill Downs. Has won at this distance before and has the fastest Beyer in the field. Add is a weight allowance and a 12-1 ML and this is a nice horse to play. The 3 DIVINE DHARMA is back in Puhich’s barn after starting there before going to Sadler. Won at a mile at Santa Anita, and then just bounced around a little bit. With a good trip by Baze here at a 6-1 ML, there is no reason to think this horse cannot win versus what could be a couple of questionable favorites this race.
Thoughts:5-3-7-4 Longshot: 5
Race 4 8.5F- Dirt
Another tough race to get through, especially without going through a lot of replays to get a better handle on the setup here. While 8 GAMBIT is probably the most logical winner, it is hard for me to take a 7-2 ML horse trying to break maiden in his 19th start. So, I will not spend much time there. The 12 MR. UNUSUAL is a nice horse here for the Sadler and Rosario combo, even at a short price. The question I have here is the pace setup- and can this gelding get to the wire first, without a lot of early or late kick and just kind of a middle of the road runner. I say that because I know that the 4 SMART ARCH is going to be forwardly placed along with the 8 GAMBIT. If these two hook up early, the sure the 12 MR. UNUSUAL can get there, but I would rather take a swing for a horse to improve and finish that shows that speed at Churchill Downs. If 6 Rayo de Luz and Corey Lanerie can stay close and improve from that last effort in March, then I think we could have something with this gelding. Ben Colebrook is profitable from the layoff into routes and is well intended when putting Lanerie up. Did not really face much for competition in the last race but at this point, we can see what scratches do to make this a clearer pace scenario. If you do not mind layoff horses, then 7 HERBIES TOYS is interesting here going to the dirt for only the 2nd time in his brief career. Not knowing what to expect for an improvement on the layoff, Should be able to get a better trip than previous, just wish that the trainer was better on the layoff, but for a smaller trainer who is winning at 25%, he needs to place horses well and with 12% winners at CD- I will take a chance.
Thoughts: 7-12-4-6 Longshot:7
Race 5 8F- Dirt
Not going to spend a lot of time here, as I am going to accept what I have been given. 1 HEAVENS WHISPER- big drop-in class, 3-5 at this distance and gets Talamo to return to the saddle. Even with a lot of speed to the outside of her, should be able to save ground and have enough late kick to finish this field off. 9 FLASH N’ DANCE- Last out hopped at the start, never really had a chance despite being completely outclassed that day. Comes back to normal company but I am a bit hesitant with the lack of workouts on this mare since that last race in March. Conditioning could be an issue, but Marcus O’Donnell is profitable on the layoff and at a 20-1 ML, who am I to say I cannot use a horse who is 2-4 at the distance. 12 CRAZY SEXY MUNNY- with the amount of speed I this race Rosario will be able to sit a good trip and not get too far back and be able to open in the drive. Horse has shown plenty of kick late, concern is the horse has never won on fast dirt, so could just be a specialist for the artificial. At a price- worth a look underneath
Thoughts:1-9-12 Longshot:9
Race 6 8.5F- Turf
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It is always said that a horse either loves or hates Churchill Downs- and this race has a few that appear to love it. 2 EZMOSH- last year ran career type numbers on the Churchill Grass now add to that, Joe Sharp is pretty good 2nd off a layoff, with a decent workout pattern, at a 12-1 ML hard to ignore this gelding today. Has won with Carroll aboard, so there are a lot of things going right it would appear. 5 ZERO GRAVITY- This Michael Maker gelding has had a rough start to 2020, but who can say they have not? Returns to the turf which seems to be the preferred surface which works for us, it is just unfortunate that Maker is not more profitable to bet on first off, the claim. Gaffalione aboard today, who is off to a great start at Churchill should be a in a good spot, and if this race falls apart or Tyler keeps him close, one to watch in the stretch. 6 EXULTING- Another one who seems to enjoy this turf with a good effort in the only start. Has a lot of back class for this field, but at a short price one to watch? Should get plenty of help as far as pace goes with enough early pace here to be honest.
Thoughts:6-5-2-1 Longshot: 2 Off Turf:5
Race 7 7F on Dirt
8 PRINCESS PHONE- I tried to figure out the last effort and the best I can come up with is perhaps given the lack of work history, the intentions that day were not completely clear. Returns 7 days later after leading for ½ the race before tiring and stopping. Seems odd to return quickly here but given the layoff could still be ready today. 10 BONNET- seems to tower over the field from a Beyer perspective but the lack of late pace concerns me a little. Decent workout after getting to Churchill and there’s reason to think that the horse is well intended and ready to run. Removes blinkers which has not worked for Shirer in 2 attempts, but he has been so hot this year, who am I to question his efforts? 7 I’MTHEKAYSMEOW- I like this filly and if she were shipping from anywhere but Tampa, I would be excited about this race, but Tampa horses seem to ship out and not repeat those efforts. On paper should compete but is a first out facing winners so unless the price is double digits, I do not see a win play here.
Thoughts:10-8-7 Longshot-7
Race 8 8.5F- Dirt
This allowance race is wide open before scratches and it really feels like anyone can win. 11 SILVER RATIO- going to take a lot of money with the Castellano and Pletcher combo and the string of recent works but it feels like the race is too wide open for this short price. 9 SPRAWL- from 1 short price to another with Rosario/Mott combo here on this colt returning to the distance that broke maiden from. Horse will be middle of the pack and with Rosario timing the run, hard to look past this horse. Was wide and bumped in last outing at Gulfstream Park in a race that was friendly to the speed. I will discount that outing if this price stays fair and give another chance. 10 UNSHAKEN- Michael Stidham has had a good crop of horses lately and is winning 21% in 2020 so far. This gelding is facing winners for the first time and stretching out, but was impressive in the maiden special weight win, despite being able to walk some slow fractions. May not be ready for this field, especially carrying weight, but I like using underneath and may key in a few trifectas. 2 DON VITO CORLEONE- I am a glutton for speed, even the cheap ones that do not seem to finish. Carrying extra weight may be too much here, but hard to ignore a horse than has stayed close to some nice quick fractions early. Could have been outclass in that allowance race, but they try again here. 3 ALL WEST- I think I will remember this horse for a few years as I was on this horse at the NHC and it was an ugly start- that being said, horse fits well here and if Talamo has better timing could benefit from the race coming back and sitting first run on the closers in the field. Would expect a better trip than last out. I will go back to the well once again, and hopefully not be disappointed.
Thoughts:9-3-11 Longshot:2
Race 9 5F- Turf
Nothing like a turf sprint that could be hampered by rain in the middle of the late pick 5. 2 MORTICIA stands to take a lot of money here making her first start of 2020, and the million-dollar earner should be ready based on the reported workouts. 8 GIRLS KNOW BEST is also going to be short and these two both should be firing early to set a pace that will be normal for the them. The mare that excites me a little in this field is the 9 UNBRIDLED CLASS. Has won her far share of races but excels at this distance. This being the first trip to Churchill could proven interesting but pace figures suggest she will be in the mix, and at a 6-1 ML, I would feel more comfortable with a win bet here, even if the 2 MORTICIA and 8 UNBRIDLED CLASS are a lot more logical today. The 1 PLAY ON is also very live today, as she closed out the 2019 campaign on the improve and started right where she left off. Won last out at Fairgrounds with a quick early pace and outlasted, but never looked tired suggests she could be the one up front with the short horses and continue home.
Thoughts:1-8-2 Longshot:9 Off Turf: 1A
Race 10 8.5F- Dirt
On paper this is a very fair race and is wide open. I expect the 9 KICKIN’ KIRBY to be the early but finishing appears to be a problem so should come back to the field nicely. I think the 1 SMART CALL has looked good in 2 outings and seemed to really take to the stretch out at Oaklawn Park last month, even after breaking slowly got up for 2nd. Only 3rd career start, and at an 8-1 ML not a crazy thought to think this horse can improve to compete. 12 SECOND LINE DAVID if you toss out that last effort this colt was making nice strides in 2 career starts before the flop which can be excused a tough. Takes blinkers off today, so perhaps that is why we can excuse the rank effort there. Will be short, but just be able to sit a pressing trip, and if he is not 4 wide around, could be game today. 5 EKATI’S VERVE, I keep coming back to this horse because of the efforts at Churchill in 2019. Ran his best figures here several classes higher but looks to break maiden in 7th ask. Nice recency on the workouts, should be conditioned nicely. Albarado is a low percentage jock and Dallas Stewart is cold off layoffs, but if the price floats up, could be worth a play. 6 BOSS LIFE ran on dirt before they tried the turf twice for the Romans barn. Horse has shown speed before and the ability to finish at a mile and has a pedigree that suggests could perform on dirt well. Not the most logical but at a price of 10-1 on the ML, hard to ignore if the horse takes some logical improvements. Wish we had a bit better workout pattern to go off.
Thoughts:1-5-12-9 Longshot:6