Welcome everyone to week three of the column at Churchill Downs. Overall last week I was solid in getting winners, just could not get the top choice home. So far, the top pick is only winning at 15% but the second choice is winning at 25%. Not bad having 40% winners between my top 2 picks. Let us see if we can get on the plus side this week and find us some nice horses.
DISCLAIMER- This week at work as been a bit crazy, so I did not watch as many replays as usual- that would be crazy if I do great!!
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
It looks like a chance of a stray thunderstorm, so if it changes from fast to super sloppy keep that in mind, as I will go through the card assuming fast/good conditions.
Race 1 6F- Dirt
The Morning Line favorite here is the 2 FOREIGN EXCHANGE who I do not really care for at this price point. She was expensive but, in this field, I think she could find herself up against a faster pace early and if she is too close with Mena aboard, her finish power is suspect. I like the 7 SKYVALUE here, for Ron Moquett. Third time starter with Santana Jr aboard who has improved in each career start at Oaklawn. If she continues to progress, could get loose today and be gone. Not a big fan of a horse facing winners for the first time, but with this speed for 6F, it would be hard to pass up. 1 FRENCH ROSE with a quick glance at BEYERs looks to not fit here but Desormeaux has been decent this meet and in 2020, so hard to pass up if this horse takes to CD. Should enjoy the relief in class compared to 2 weeks ago, but if she floats to 5-1 or so, I will take a shot at a good price. With the cutback, worth a price play.
Thoughts:7-1-2 Longshot: 3
Race 2 8.5F- Dirt
1 URBANITE is going to take a lot of money, but I understand why. Enjoyed the stretch out last out after leaving special weight class and now tries the go at non winners of 2. Did the horse figure it out last, or was it a fluke? Gets a weight allowance being 3 years old and Santana stays aboard and showed finishing power. Nice 5 weeks off, should be well rested and primed today with a decent post-race workout cycle. Another interesting horse is 3 LORD DRAGON, but historically I have done bad playing horses shipping away from Tampa. A lot of them seem to love that track and ship out and do not run to their numbers. This horses best though with a good pace, should be able to put this field away, concern here in the extra weight and that could be too much. 4 DELP should be able to sit off the pace and be ready to strike but needs the 5 HEZA HANDFUL to push the pace I think, as DELP has ran his best when facing a good early pace. Graham has been all over winners lately and I think must include in horizontals.
Thoughts:1-3-4 Longshot: 5
Race 3 8F- Dirt
So, from these early races, this is the race I want to look for a price. I figure the 9 FRESHMAN CLASS is going to take a lot of money and makes sense, with the cutback coming back to dirt, but she has been all over in form, and hard to get a handle on. At a 5/2 ML I will let her beat me if today is her day. 6 CANDY BIZZNESS adds blinkers today in her second start and comes over to the dirt which her pedigree suggests she may prefer just slightly. Not a big fan of the long layoff from the 1st start before working again, but with 4 timely works could be ok in this spot for a trainer who hits 20% of his 2nd time maiden starters and 17% coming from layoffs of this range. At a 10-1 ML I hope value stays here and we can sneak a price home. I also like the 8 EASY TIGER, but I do not expect to get a price near the ML of 6-1 here as Wayne Catalano adds blinkers and Tyler Gaffalione to the mount who is winning 18% of his mounts here. Stretches out, but watching the replay from the last, may not be a bad thing as the effort she had for Talamo was consistent throughout.
Thoughts:6-8-5-9 Longshot: 6,8
Race 4 5.5F-Turf
If playing horizontals, lets hit the ALL button this race and move on as the 2-year old’s attack us once again. 6 ROAD TO ROMANCE will have little value today with this pedigree and the workouts that she has posted for Mark Casse, but in a race like this I have a hard time taking a 9-5ML favorite 2-year-old. So many things can happen that we cannot predict, so, I will make a few plays here on trainer and pedigree angles and hope to get one home. If 12 ILLEGAL SMILE gets in, we all know Wesley Ward 2-year old take money and will offer no value either. 9 SOME NIGHTS, while not a stellar pedigree here the 2-year old’s from Street Boss have had some pretty high BEYER numbers and at this level and an 8-1 ML, I will watch the tote and decide action here. One other to watch in my opinion is the 10 MIDYEAR but I would expect money to come here as well.
So I went through this whole race trying to find value and good angles I like, but I really have to press to find an excuse to bet the 9 SOME NIGHTS or the 1 SCAT’S CHOICE who has had some decent works that the training center, and could surprise tomorrow. I will probably skip this race since there are no angles, I really like but for the column, I will make selections.
Thoughts:1-9-6-12 Longshot:13
Race 5 6F- Dirt
This race I am going to try to stick narrow. 7 SILVER RIDE has ran at Churchill 4 times and in the cash twice. Some big numbers in 2018 and even earlier this year at Oaklawn Park. Has the pace numbers to fit here well if this gelding wants to run today. 1 KOWBOY KARMA, I think I have written about this gelding before as the back class seems to fit and now drops to the cheapest level, he has seen in over 3 years. Gelding has 2 wins in 7 tries at Churchill, and I will give this one another shot to take my money at this price level. No other horse has run here as much as the 5 SHARP ART for David Vance. Unfortunately, 2020 appears that this 8-year-old gelding has lost a step in 2020. Takes blinkers off today which has been a nice angle for Vance. At 8-1 ML see where the tote lies for this one.
Thoughts:1-7-3 Longshot:5
Race 6 6.5F- Dirt
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So, if you read last week, I said sometimes you take what you can get, and this is the prime example. 9 BOTERO on paper appears to be a strong gelding for this field and one that I want to single. I like the jockey change to Martin Garcia and if this horse fires could win by open lengths. If for some reason BOTERO has issues 2 CHANNEL CROSSING is very interesting to see run here after the layoff and the nice workout pattern. A little surprised that the morning line has this horse at 6-1, but on pace figures with the cutback, hard to ignore.
Thoughts:9-2
Race 7 8.5F on Turf
This could be the best race on the card as there are a lot of horses that seem to be coming into this race. 8 LABEQ, looks to fit well and probably will take a lot of money from this 8-1 ML but if you look at the past races, it is hard to play expecting this horse to be shorter than here. There are other horses here that I think have better class and could be better plays. 3 BOTSWANA TAPS at this price point really excites me even being the first-time facing winners coming from a lower maiden special weight point. Went wire to wire in debut against horses that 6 that finished 1st or 2nd next out. With the pedigree and the strong finish last out, no reason to think this colt cannot coming into allowance ranks and win. 5 MOON OVER MIAMI looked decent trying turf for the first time in a tough spot with a lot of early pace. This colt has been placed aggressively the last 2 times so I can make an excuse for those performances. Nice workouts on paper and a good form, although Mott horses are not great from layoffs from this timeframe. Given the number of unknowns here, it is possible this race breaks down and if it does, I want all of 9 MANTRA come flying late. Needs help here so I probably need double digit value point to take a swing on a closer that cannot do it by himself.
Thoughts:3-5-9-8 Longshot-3,9
Race 8 7F- Dirt
Hello, you beautiful Ghostzapper filly named GUARANA! You let us down last time out but Street Band performed well and you were game in a hot pace, Today you should be able to sit behind the 4 SUNNY DALE and let the race come to you. If playing horizontals and you use 6 GUARANA, you probably must be narrow here to have the value come to you in this spot. If you choose to fade and you are right, the price could pay off nicely in the sequence. Personally, I am looking at a single here and perhaps an exacta plays with 8 LADY SUEBEE and 2 UNIQUE FACTOR underneath if the probables are worth it.
Thoughts:6 Longshot:2,8
Race 9 7F- Dirt
The close leg in the sequence is a tough one but could lead to a good payout. 9 FIRST CITIZEN fits here and see what happens with the scratches and what not as I would not mind Rocco Jr coming off this mount. This colt was progressing nicely before the last out which was a hot pace and a flop finish. Got a nice great and Rouck is decent in limited sample sizes from this duration of a layoff. 7 KID SHELLEEN figures to take a lot of money as I looked at the pedigree and the workouts and this colt appears to be coming in fit and ready. Nice 5F works dominate the pattern so I do not expect issues for conditioning. I want to like 2 SHAW with progressing BEYER figures in every start but needs to take a big step forward to win today. Even with a good pattern of works, I would need double digits for a win bet here. 10 HIGHER AUTHORITY could be interesting here. Comes from the Servis barn and will be curious to see what Calhoun can do with this horse for the West’s. Comes off turf, and on this move, Calhoun is at 27% winners and he does better on the dirt anyways. At a 6-1 ML if the action lets this drift up fading the former Servis horse I could be game. 4 DREAMONMEBABY adds blinkers today and other than the fast route at Oaklawn last out was progressing nicely, before the connections left special weight and tried maiden levels. Lanerie stays aboard so I think the horse is live, considering he usually gets a pick of mounts in Kentucky, especially with NYRA having started back up.Thoughts:9-7-2-10 Longshot:4