It’s a hot one today in Louisville end it should make for a nice evening to be hanging out at Churchill. Let’s take a look at the card.
Race 1
2-7-1
2- Josie- she ran a great first race at odds on favourite and ran up against a fireball in magic dance. She should control the pace and be the big favourite again this evening.
7- Spun Eazy- first time starter I like the breeding and you have to like the amazing workouts. The trainer is 38% with first time starters and if you look at her two workouts at the beginning and middle of June they jump off the page.
1- Honourable Memory- has run two races already resulting in to third place finishers. Like the fact that blinkers are going on in first time Lasix.
Race 2
2-3-6
2- Mr Misunderstood- 4/4 At Churchill and three out of four at the distance. I love the connections and love the fact that she has done well in small fields in the past.
3- Big Changes- Stablemate to my top pick, this guy runs consistently all the time and you’ll notice last summer into fall went on a five race win streak with being in the top two in eight in a row. Will show better value in my top pick and may even be able to overtake.
6- Soglio- The shortened distance might be a factor for this five-year-old as he seems to want to run a little longer and with the shorter field I am expecting a slower pace which will be hard to close on.
Race 3
6-7-5
6- Babaknowseverything- seems as if she was bothered at the gate last outing and did not run at all first time off layoff. She so shows consistency around this level and did well the first two times off a claim for the current trainer and has one for this jockey to start back.
7- Myositis Mystique- A really nice record it Churchill and a very impressive 11 for 13 in the top two with this distance. She should sit third or fourth and make a move down the stretch in her third off layoff.
5- Mizzenmast Air – ultra consistent over the last six races and has shown up every time at various distances. She has won three out of four at this distance and 100% in the money.
Race 4
8-10-13
8- Lea Ridge- A nice value play here for a nice three-year-old getting Lasix for the first time. The race on May 3 at Oaklawn where he finished sixth out of 10 was actually quite impressive as he was between horses and still finished well and now drops to a much easier class.
10- Copper Fiddle- my eye was drawn to his first race late April at Churchill where are you had a very nice speed figure out a similar class. Add the blinkers and drops back down.
13- Super Terrific- The two races for trainer McGee are very nice and he drops down slightly for this outing.
Race 5
7-1-2-10
7- Grandezza- I think she is the class of the race and should enjoy the distance in the company. I’m not usually one to take a horse off its maiden victory but to me she looks much better than the rest.
1- Jo Marie – started in the rail last outing and had a great race as she finished second against some of these. She did get shuffled a bit but found a way to come on in the stretch and I’m looking for the same this evening.
2- Demimondaine – Another coming in off of Meade in victory and also looks to have future potential. This high price yearling purchase runs for a great connections and should show up again this evening
10- value play
Race 6
5-7-11
5- Proud as Punch- should get a half decent price on this guy as it comes in half a bit of a layoff and a win. I love the breeding and I love the fact that he has never missed a board in a turf race.
7- Big Torch Key – this high-priced yearling comes in off a bit of a layoff with some nice workouts leading up to his third career race. There could be some long-range potential for this three-year-old and Romans seems to be taking his time educating this colt.
11- Tracksmith – another lightly raised three-year-old from the Joe Sharp barn has shown a liking for the turf and had an amazing race at Kentucky downs back in early September. There’s obviously some talent here and I look for him to show up tonight after some good drills in the morning.
Race 7
5-6-7-11
5- Crosswalk- bit of a flyer here as he comes in after a long layoff. Many things to like here including his record at Churchill his record of the distance his past speed figures and the fact that the trainer is 40% off layoffs of over six months. Might be a good idea to include him in your horizontal wagers.
6- Honourable Treasure- he left the US early in the year and is now back hoping to get back into the consistency he race start late last year. Has had some nice workouts going 5 furlongs and I’m quite impressed with the June 3 Churchill drill.
7- Magic Tapit – The race in January at Gulfstream really jumps off the page with that 102 speed figure. The two workouts in early June show that this guy is in shape and could do some damage this evening.
11- Nice claim nice works value play
Race 8
4-3-6-7
4- Flat out Beautiful- Big drop-down change of equipment and great percentages from similar moves by the trainer. Should race near the lead and should show class to capture this one.
3- Gray Hope- pretty average first race at higher odds but did gain throughout the race and now races an extra 2 furlongs for a trainer that does well sprint to route.
6- Doby- should be in the vertical wagers as this high price yearling that now runs for $20,000 likes to come from out of it and get a piece at the end.
7- I like the drop-down I like the extra distance and I like that first race will be value play.
All the best tonight at Churchill, looks like early on we could have some chalk and the value shows later in the card. Giddy up!