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Race 1

1^st #3 Garden Affair looks the most promising given her recent form.  Declan Carroll knows her well, and Victoria Oliver has a win and a third place finish out of three starts.  Her race last out was great, and she only missed second place by a nose.

2^nd #7 Flower House looks good in this spot, but one question looms for me.  How will she feel coming back onto the dirt? Her fifth place finish was on the dirt, but her other third place finishes were on the turf.  A few of the girls in this field have me a little weary with the surface change.

3^rd #8 Final Adventure hasn’t even began her adventure yet! The Orb filly just didn’t fire at Kentucky Downs last out and lost it by a longshot.  If you look at her lone dirt race, it was her first race and she also hit the gate coming out. Maybe a better trip on the dirt would help her.

Race 2

1^st #10 Zombie looks the most trustworthy out of a field of twelve uncertainties.  He really liked Iowa compared to most tracks and comes in here with a fourth place finish as the chalk at PM, but was pushed so wide.    

2^nd #5 Soul of Discretion lost by two last out, but was considered the winner because the other horse got DQ’d.  He’s a picky fella, a lot of ups and downs not only in his races but also in his conditions he’s been running in.  I hope with his last race he can keep on rolling.

3^rd #9 French Quarter comes off of a win at CBY but hasn’t raced at Churchill before.  He’s been a struggle showing consistency, but over the summer had decent form with Diodoro.  He’s an eight year old who can still run, but sometimes has me concerned.

Race 3

1^st #8 Annathela has sure had a lot asked of her this year with those four stakes races in a row.  She’s really not that kind of horse and they were just too tough for her. The class relief she will have here can really make a difference.  Three of her four wins have been at Churchill.

2^nd #7 Skamania has worked out to be an excellent claim.  They gave her a lot of time off, but she came back strong.  Her races at Saratoga were good, so don’t let those fifth place finishes scare you from betting her.  Her last out when she finished third there was good, she didn’t lose by much.

3^rd #5 Sterling Miss has two races here and two wins.  Her last race was just such a challenge that she wasn’t up for.  She’s had two months off so maybe the freshening, jockey change, and putting her on a track she likes will help.

Race 4

1^st #11 Ginny B really was just outmatched at Kentucky Downs and I understand why she didn’t perform with the competition she was up against.  Now she’s just dropped so significantly that it would be hard for her not to win.    

2^nd #1 Lucky Visit isn’t one I can think of pulling off two wins in a row but she hasn’t been off of the board in four starts.  She’s one of the most lightly raced horses in the field, but her one win does come at this track.

3^rd #8 Stellar Stiletto could be one that provides you some value if you take her for third place.  She may have been no factor last out like they say, but just like #11 she is really coming down in class, and has two thirds at Belterra.

Race 5

1^st #12 Wedontbelieveher has the blinkers off and is dropping down in class.  Her last out wasn’t great but her two races before that, she really didn’t lose by much.  Bayern is a sire to watch for with up and coming winners.

2^nd #5 Better and Better is a Brad Cox trainee who’s workouts haven’t been great, but his trainer is certainly great.  His mare has produced many winners including one who’s made a little over $350K.

3^rd #9 Abounding didn’t throw in much of an effort, and her dam was unplaced in two starts, but the Candy Ride line has a lot of value.  So does Justin Phillip, who like Bayern, is becoming a popular young stallion.

Race 6

1^st #7 Fra Mauro went from some tough company down to the bottom.  Tom Amoss has a 23% winning percentage for the year which is quite good.  His last race he only lost two lengths and a quarter but he’s still coming down and it will show.

2^nd #6 Aquadini is like a lot of horses on todays card where they just put him way above where he belonged.  Now he’s coming down in class and it is much needed. He’s got solid breeding and a good trainer- Dallas Stewart is very good at Churchill.

3^rd #11 Sassy King was also entered at Indiana but chose this spot.  Which hopefully means that’s why the connections put him here instead of there.  He hasn’t been running well but he’s dipping down a little.

Race 7

1^st #6 Bonnet finally broke her maiden last out which was a good run.  She’s done some switching around on surfaces but the dirt seems to be better for her.  It was interesting too because that was the first time she had been on the board.  

2^nd #7 Lunar Orbit has had so much time off.  I chose Stewart’s other horse above, but he does such a good job prepping horses for the races.  It’s a real bummer because I feel she could have done well in the spring at Oaklawn.

3^rd #10 Lady of Luxury has had three months off from racing.  She bobbled at her last start so that very well could have affected her.  Her workouts have been pretty good.

Race 8

1^st #9 Necker Island just ran against some tough horses in his debut, and nobody was going to beat Three Technique.  Stanley Hough has only been off the board once in five starts.

2^nd #8 Noble Empire is another who just ran third at Saratoga, believe it or not he is one of the cheapest horses in the field with a purchase price of $100K.  He could give D Wayne Lukas a break and get his first win of the meet.

3^rd #5 Sharecropper was the most expensive out of the field with a $600K tag.  His dam did well racing, including graded stakes placing. His sire has since passed on, which makes fellas like these worth a lot more.

Race 9

1^st #2 Fenwick Station is by Magician (IRE) gave quite the run last out.  Honestly you don’t see many horses win an easier maiden race, and then go on to run second in a $500K race.  All I can say is wow.

2^nd #6 Memorable has some nice breeding, especially with an Empire Maker broodmare.  His racing record isn’t bad, mostly a fifth place finisher in stakes races.

3^rd #7 Nicely Nicely is by Lemon Drop Kid and has some European breeding into him.  He won last out at Arlington but only by a head and I don’t see him winning for that reason, but do feel he will be on the board.

Race 10

1^st #9 Sugar Love was beat as the chalk, she just kind of gave up.  Candy Ride’s hardly ever fail, and I expect a run to come out of her soon.  She’s due for it.

2^nd #3 Pink Scatillac ran a very good and respectable second place finish last out, which was significantly better than her other races.  Let’s see how she handles the Kentucky circuit since she is new to it.

3^rd #6 La Vida’s performance last out may look discouraging, but the horse made up so much ground and really ran a good one.  Sophie Doyle stays on which is a good thing.