Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, November 17, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1

1st #3 Madam Novetzke is the lone filly in this race, also running for the cheapest price.  She’s a homebred for CJ Thoroughbreds trained by Wesley Ward. Dam was stakes placed. She ran ok at Arlington, an improvement in her second race.  A big drop.

2nd #4 Mrwilloughby is unraced, with average workouts.  I found it interesting that the dam raced six times with no success, no well known breeding, and then they bred this horse.  I will be really curious how he does.

3rd #10 Wicked Wednesday drops in half for the claim which was needed.  Even here I am worried if he will be okay. I just don’t think he wants anything to do with racing, and he’s gone through the auction several times with no improvement in purchase price.

Race 2

1st #4 Girl on Track is by Declaration of War, and improved when she made the transfer from Del Mar to here.  She just ran two weeks ago so that is a little concerning she is coming back so quick. I like how Peter Miller horses run in Kentucky after leaving California.

2nd #7 Daring ran fourth at Keeneland last out.  Not really a bad fourth, but enough where she’s going in for half of the price.  Good Churchill connections with Tim Glyshaw and Brian Hernandez Jr. She has ran at many tracks, but Churchill seems to be her preference.

3rd #3 Liner finally got into an easier spot.  She’s just not up to par running in the races she has been.  It is a class drop, and a good trainer, Ian Wilkes, she should be ok.  Not digging her most recent performances but this could be better.

Race 3

1st #1 Limeage has two races here: one second and one third.  Maybe now she can win with Florent Geroux. I feel that her fifth place finish was one that can put her on the board here.  She’s got to improve though.

2nd #2 Kimberly Frances is trained by Dale Romans, who’s one of Churchill’s best trainer.  Lot’s of fourth and fifth place finishes. She beat Limeage last out which was good. It would be good to see her hit the board again.  She hasn’t done it since May.

3rd #8 Quiet All Around finished third in Ohio last out.  Churchill two back wasn’t good at all, but her other two races have been second place finishes.  She’s near the bottom of the barrel now, and I’m hoping with her being lower in class here (at this track) she’ll run better now.  

Race 4

1st #1 Shahashakemeup is one Calumet decided to purchase, and I always find their purchases to be interesting.  Pretty good workouts. The dam is unraced but there is value in the sire, Shackleford.

2nd #8 Fast Magic was purchased by Ken McPeek who tends to make some smart purchases.  I like Fast Anna, not many runners but they’ve been good. The dam did well racing, and I think this breeding choice.  I’m curious how this one will do.

3rd #4 Spanish Kingdom went from selling for a lot of money, to cheap.  I find that weird. He has quality breeding, dam was multiple stakes placed.  Some works are better than others. You never really know with first time starters.

Race 5

1st #4 Frost or Frippery has had a real good year.  Off the board once this year in twelve starts, six of those being wins.  You don’t always get consistency in these fields, but he towers over them all.  Just ran a second last out at Keeneland.

2nd #10 Peekacho comes off of a nice win at Keeneland.  A nice effort. He’s also had a good year, seven out of fourteen wins.  Over $100K in earnings. I admire his ability in his racing record, especially this year.

3rd #11 Risky Town is the son of Jersey Town coming off of a Keeneland win.  Two in a row is tough to ask, but his recent form suggests he is capable of another win.  He has the up and coming Declan Carroll riding.

Race 6

1st #5 Ready to Roll was a $270,000 purchase multiple times.  He worked a nice bullet several times ago. He’s by the well respected City Zip.  Bret Calhoun trains, Robby Albarado rides.

2nd #7 Vaya Con Dios has a bit of experience compared to the others.  He already has four races in, and they’ve been respectable efforts.  His last Keeneland run was quite good, Diodoro has done well with him.

3rd #9 Chiefhowcome has one start and one third at Keeneland.  Big e-number of 88, which isn’t something a lot of third place finishers can earn.  Another City Zip, trained by Ian Wilkes.

Race 7

1st #9 Private Collection is the daughter of rockstar stud Curlin, out of an A.P Indy mare.  She’s a homebred, one Hill N’Dale co-bred. She must have value to the connections if they have hung onto her.

2nd #10 Pomp and Pageantry is making her debut.  By Uncle Mo, out of the graded stakes winning mare, Thank You Marylou who had a fantastic career campaigned by the Ramsey’s.  They own this one too.

3rd #1 My Mane Girl is by Fast Anna out of an unraced Street Cry (IRE) mare.  A $125,000 purchase. Her works were all good, the last one was questionable but works don’t always mean much of anything.

Race 8

1st #2 Vomba, at three years old shows quite a bit of talent.  Her two wins were sensational. Her fourth place outing last race at Keeneland also was great.  She’s by Candy Ride, who tends to have some late blooming foals.

2nd #8 Take Charge Angel is the morning line favorite, and her last race was impressive, as she finished second in an allowance at Keeneland.  Running her back in a stakes after her layoff was a lot to ask, but she bounced back nicely.

3rd #6 Peruvian Appeal finished behind Take Charge Angel last out.  She is graded stakes placed, running third in the Victory Ride earlier this year at Belmont.  Brad Cox trains this filly.

Race 9

1st #6 Bluegrass Parkway made it close to being multiple stakes placed this spring.  Nice efforts so far, she’s pretty consistent but has struggled to find the winners circle this year.  Maybe it will get changed around.

2nd #5 Channel Island ran a fantastic race winning at Belmont last out.  He’s been around several tracks, this is his first time at Churchill. Kentucky Downs was a bit too tough for him, but almost everything else he’s ran has been solid.

#8 Stage Ready kicked off his career this year poorly.  His first five races were no good. Then something changed and his performances improved drastically.  His third place finish last out was respectable in a tough race.

Race 10

1st #5 Lontani ran the best race he had last out at Keeneland.  Yes, it was a somewhat lower level claiming race where he is now, but it was the best effort he had, which will be good enough here.

2nd #12 Montmarte hasn’t won since Santa Anita in September of 2018.  I don’t see him winning here, but anything goes in racing. It’s weird seeing Brad Cox with a struggling horse.  He’s 5/2.

3rd #2 Mine Inspector is owned and trained by Steve Asmussen.  Ran third last out. H lacks talent, but looks decent in the field.

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