Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, June 23, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1
1st #2 Aqualityindividual has one start and it wasn’t good, because he took a bad step.  Now he’s also coming down in class. Trained by Eddie Kenneally, ridden by Corey Lanerie.  This guy was a $100,000 purchase.

2nd #12 Tweezer is coming down in class a little, which was needed.  Besides that, he hasn’t had much going well for him. I’d rather have seen him stay with Cox instead of Fawkes, way better winning percentages.

3rd #9 Extra Medium has started to improve.  Chris Block only has one start at this meet, and didn’t hit the board.  He just finished 2nd in a $35K claiming race so now he’s going up a little, so that’s my only concern.  

Race 2
1st #7 Samurai Cause has two second place finishes, and it would be nice to see him get a win and break his maiden.  A Claiborne Farm horse who sold for $120K and trained by Steve Asmussen.

2nd #4 Pharaoh Cat has rock solid breeding.  Then again, what would you expect for a $475K tag? I’m surprised he’s 6/1.  He’s worked really well. Not sure how I feel about Court on him, I’d prefer a jockey with a higher percentage.

3rd #5 Long Weekend is trained by Tom Amoss who is having a fabulous meet.  Him and Miguel Mena team up to bring the son of Majesticperfection to his career debut.  His siblings haven’t done much at all, but dam is stakes placed.

Race 3
1st #3 Concord Fast is an earner of almost half a million dollars.  I took him last time and he certainly was impressive last out. Joe Sharp trains the consistent gelding.

2nd #4 Sharp Act can beat Concord Fast with one less furlong, as this guy likes to go to the front and often tires out.  Last out was second against CF, but a really good effort. He just got tired and passed him. My hope is that the less distance will help.

3rd #5 Majestic Affair just went the wrong way last out for some reason.  He’s had a couple of months off which should help him along with the class drop.  Diodoro trains. Still a good horse by all means, but last year he just solid.

Race 4
1st #7 Tally Ho comes down a little in class and it was a good race last out.  Not often you see a Turfway horse win at Keeneland so that speaks highly. Very lightly raced, only bad race was her first race so she’s on the upward path.

2nd #2 Maggie Pie is worth taking a look at.  She’s coming out of a race where Tally Ho beat her, but she didn’t run bad.  Asmussen is having an excellent meet so be sure to take a hard look at whatever he is running.

3rd #8 Nine Martini’s was my huge longshot last out.  It was a fantastic race. Going up a little in class is going to be a challenge for her, but I’m hoping off of that race she can keep going in a positive direction.

Race 5
1st #3 Call to Victory has ran a good two races.  Now she looks like she can win this race. James Graham was on her last out, and is back on her.  They lost by a neck last out.

2nd #10 Silver Kitten has two second place finishes in a row.  Different jockey now, Saez is on her this time instead of Castellano.  She’s hard to choose though, just because she’s fairly inconsistent and has had some dull efforts.

3rd #4 Latest Version gets no love here.  That was a big race she ran last out and she deserves a little credit.  I’m really surprised she hasn’t been lower in class before because her other performances have been rocky.

Race 6
1st #2 Tactical Pursuit (IRE) dips in for half of what he ran last out, now down to $20K.  Walsh is a good up and coming trainer, and this guy has just been in some tough spots, especially in NY.

2nd #1 Long Gray Line kicked butt last out with that win here by over nine lengths.  I do see him having a hard time winning two in a row for some reason. Let’s face it, seeing how many times he’s been the chalk and hasn’t even hit the board, I can’t take him on top.

3rd #5 Moscow Minister really couldn’t win two in a row… Take my realistic thoughts with a grain of salt.  This guy is just up and down, up and down, so he’s hard to trust. His last race was pretty good and I think he could run third.

Race 7
1st #11 Explorer was a hefty $1,250,000.  The dam, Remember. was unraced but by Forest Wildcat, which sets for a good pedigree.  This is Brad Cox’s first out with the horse who was previously trained by Bob Baffert.

2nd #5 Coltonator doesn’t need to be 12/1 with his last race and I feel he will take some money.  His effort last out was fantastic and he only lost by half a length.

3rd #6 Uber Kirk gave a nice winning performance last out.  He’s raced another horse in here named Time On Target several times already and the two go back and forth.  This one usually puts fourth a good effort.

Race 8
1st #9 Peru (GB) has sure been in some tough races.  She needs some confidence so she is stepping out of stakes ranks.  Those races she ran in graded company even were good runs by her but just outmatched.

2nd #8 La Signare (IRE) has a sketchy racing record based on all of her weird layoffs.  She does a lot of traveling from around the world, to Florida, to here. This is a tough race and asking her to win could be a little tough.  

3rd #1 Coach Rocks is still a competitive filly, but last year she was running the Triple Tiara races out in New York.  Just another few races that were really hard on her. This is a better spot so she can get her confidence back.

Race 9
1st #9 Solid Wager was just claimed last out from Peter Miller here.  Not often you see someone claim an eight year old gelding for $62,500 but this one still runs high Beyer numbers and some pretty classy company.

2nd #10 Heavy Roller is good, but Pimlico just didn’t work out.  Joe Sharp did see some success with this one winning a big allowance race by a nose back at Keeneland in April.  He’s already made a little over $135K this year.

3rd #8 Cool Arrow is another Joe Sharp horse, also coming from a stakes race, but there’s a difference.  This race wasn’t graded and it was at a different track. Which means #9 is coming from tougher company than this one.  He’s done well throughout his career.

Race 10
1st #5 Debating cost over half a million dollars, which isn’t surprising because MSW at Churchill are usually top dollar horses.  I’m curious why there’s a trainer switch here. But, with his solid recent efforts he should be ready to go.

2nd #1 Picasso (I think?) was scratched last weekend, because I recall taking him and being bummed he didn’t stay in the race like his stablemate did.  His first race was decent, a strong third. I think that experience will help him be better prepared here.

3rd #11 Young Phillip has two races here and two second place finishes in this safe race.  He’s racked up a lot more money than one would think running second which is cool to see.  He’s made $45K from two seconds here and a third at SA in February. Like the jockey Baze, wish the trainer was doing better.

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