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Race 1

1^st #3 Factor Around has taken fifteen starts and is still a maiden.  After being purchased for $250,000, it’s a bit disappointing to see.  It would be nice to her win and she’s been running decent.  Looks like the best of the field.

2^nd #5 Annmaria is bred well, so to see her purchased for only $20K is a bit of a surprise.  Something must be going on here.  Her workouts are decent, I’d expect her to hit the board.

3^rd #1 Free takes the class drop with a better jockey.  She’s by Shackleford and gets the blinkers on.  Not digging her last race, and hope that this spot helps her.

Race 2

1^st #1 Bonnet won impressively last out, and Matt Shirer has two wins from ten starts so he is already seeing success at this meet.  Not a bad filly, she’s been on the board almost half of her starts.

2^nd #2 Forty Nine Model drops for half the price after a tough race last out.  Before that, she had been running great, won a couple in a row, and then went up in class and it handled it well, but last out was just too tough for her.

3^rd #5 Lil Miss Hot Mess is a nice Race Day filly who’s also dropping in class.  I think her race was tougher than Forty Nine Model’s, and she’s quite inconsistent, which poses a concern to me as a handicapper.  She’s also been in over her head a lot though.

Race 3

1^st #1 River Finn takes a massive drop in class for the talented Brad Cox who sits at an impressive 25% for the year.  Most trainers don’t win that many races.  A bummer to see a horse by Pioneerof The Nile out of a Street Cry (IRE) mare to be nearly at the bottom at such a young age.

2^nd #2 Tidal Effect’s trainer has a win and three seconds out of this meet so far.  Pretty impressive.  This fella ran second at this level last out, one that just of settles for the minors and never sees the winner’s circle.

3^rd #4 Soul Beam is another taking a steep class drop from the $50K claimers down to $10K.  This will be his second start since coming from California, where he was in some tough spots.  I think this is a much better fit for him to gain some confidence.

Race 4

1^st #3 Arabian Story has hit the board several times in his nine races, but he doesn’t show much in most of his races.  Like a few in this race, it’s the class drop that would help and benefit him.  He often gives up, but has a chance the closer he stays.

2^nd #1 Port Hunter has me shaking my head.  $320K later and he’s done virtually nothing in his four starts, (and he’s a gelding).  I’m really pulling for him and hoping the easier race will help him out.  He has such a nice family.

3^rd #5 McShady was purchased for $185,000 and hasn’t shown much at all in any of his starts.  Al Stall Jr does well both here at Churchill and at the Fairgrounds, but sees a ton of success here.  Hopefully with this being a much easier race, he can get it.

Race 5

1^st #8 Chaos Theory comes from some tough, graded races, and his loss last out was just by a neck.  Those are some hard losses to come by.  Trained by Brendan Walsh, some concerns with this fella would be the time in between his races.  Some pretty big gaps there.

2^nd #6 Fig Jelly gets the blinkers on, some nice second places finishes recently.  He’s good against tough horses, but I’ll be curious to see how Jason Servis’s horses run after not being with him for a while.  (If they’ll continue to run well or not).

3^rd #9 Chaps ran really well of his long layoff, so we have to give him some credit for that.  I like that he always tries in his races, and never loses by much.  He’s going to provide bettors with some value at 10/1 morning line.

Race 6

1^st #7 Crush It is trained by Joe Sharp, blinkers off, and is running for a little bit cheaper.  Consistently on the board, eight third place finishes from twenty-three starts.  He’s a consistent horse for the most part.

2^nd #6 Match Play might be worth something at 5/1 morning line, coming from Oaklawn, ran a really solid third with Alex Canchari in a $8,000 claiming race.  Before that, it had been quite a while before he ran well.

3^rd #8 Tres Equis likes Churchill, and wasn’t an Oaklawn fan.  It’s been a while since he’s ran a good race, but I am hoping by returning to a track he likes, he will be in better shape.

Race 7

1^st #3 Its Cold in Dehere is on the board when spotted correctly, another that doesn’t usually lose by much.  She could use a win, hasn’t won since November of last year.  Does very well at Churchill.

2^nd #1 Big Base loved Del Mar, and she ran some nice races there and at Oaklawn.  She was a nice claim, and then was claimed again, but Hollendorfer claimed her back which means he values her.  I wonder how she’ll like Churchill…

3^rd #1a Hero for Hire comes off of a massive layoff, so I think she’ll need an out or two.  Like her stablemate, she’s usually on the board and runs nice.  I am kind of surprised they brought her back and didn’t just retire her as broodmare.

Race 8

1^st #11 Catch a Bid comes out of the hardest races from anyone in the field.  She’s nice, barely lost the grade three last out.  One of two of the Chad Brown runners in this field.

2^nd #2 Magic Star ran a good race in a grade two at Tampa, finishing not too far behind the super talented Starship Jubilee.  This is the other Chad Brown runner in this field. 

3^rd #9 Sister Hanan is a lovely, lightly raced filly by Orb.  Only time she was off the board in her debut was when she clipped her heels.  She got a nice win last out to bounce back from her tough loss in the grade three.

Race 9

1^st #10 Toledo hasn’t been off the board yet in five races.  Triple Crown nominated, he had a chance when he ran third in the Holy Bull, but his connections have gone elsewhere.  (Not to mention, our year and the TC has been thrown into a huge curveball).

2^nd #8 Banks Island has been off for a while but I remember watching and betting on him when he broke his maiden in an impressive fashion last out.  He’s had seven months off, so he may need an out or two.  Don’t really seeing him beating Toledo.

3^rd #7 High Proof is very lightly raced compared to a couple in the field, so this may be more of a challenge for him, but he did break his maiden last out at Oaklawn, so he’s got great potential.

Race 10

1^st #5 Master Ryan being asked to win this is a bit tough being he’s been off for ten months, but he is coming from California and his workouts get better each time.  Think he’ll need an out, but he has a respected trainer.

2^nd #8 Duplicity is a fellow California horse trained by John Sadler that was purchased for $350K.  Going off of the one start, he has potential.  Bred very well, by Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare.

3^rd #3 Born Great has a nice family coming from Scat Daddy out of a More Than Ready mare.  Workouts are great, and he’s trained by Brendan Walsh, ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr.