Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Sunday, December 1, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1

1st #4 Arrowsphere ran second last out beaten by two and a half.  She’s made almost a $100K from thirty races and three wins which is kind of cool, she lacks consistency but looks good here.

2nd #2 Fortressa I chose last out and ran a nice race.  Chris Landeros is a great jockey on the Kentucky circuit, and really anything he rides is worth a bet.  This girl had talent at Oaklawn this past spring, and went kind of downhill after her win there.

3rd #1 Traumarama just didn’t fire last out.  Before that, her races have been decent and fairly consistent.  This field suits her better, even if she can improve on her fourth-place finish, she will be ok.

Race 2

1st #9 Davidic Line ran an awesome race last out once he got the hang of it last out.  His first race wasn’t good, but the son of Line of David got it together in his next two races.  Hopefully here he can finally break his maiden.    

2nd #8 Deanos Cape goes from maiden special weight to in for the tag.  Class drops always tend to improve horses so hopefully he can get some improvement.  His first two races were different and better.

3rd #3 Corkman has some quality breeding, but I am surprised he didn’t sell for more at the sale.  Hs first start was a fourth-place finish at Keeneland and I feel that was a good race, and that he will do better here too.

Race 3

1st #2 Young Phillip is tough to argue with in this field.  He sure loves running second (four seconds out of seven starts), but I’d like to see him step it up and win.  He’s made just shy of $78K this year, all done as a maiden.

2nd 1a Trashtalkinyankee is slowly improving, his races and e-numbers show for it.  I really liked his race two back at Keeneland and he bounced back for a nice third at Churchill.

3rd #1 Jay Vee Bee handled Churchill well for coming from Indiana Grand, where he did good, but was still unable to break his maiden.  Another who is just good at finishing second.

Race 4

1st #12 Nashvegas is a homebred for Calumet Farm and they don’t always hang onto their horses so I am sure they liked this one.  Despite running fifth, Saratoga is tough to be competitive no matter what.

2nd #11 Barquero Flies hopefully can do it here, just ran third last out.  D. Wayne Lukas always does well at Churchill. Jon Court I consider to be past his prime but if maybe he can win here, I just have my doubts about his riding.

3rd #7 Florida Flash could hit the board here, he doesn’t have the necessary talent yet to win I don’t think, but his races are slowly getting better performance wise.

Race 5

1st #7 Polished Copper has been at three different tracks and has ran well at all three of them.  Like many maidens on today’s card, she’s one slowly getting better but I’m really liking her form right now.

2nd #8 Obstinate is the morning line favorite, but I am just not liking her form lately.  I think several others have more talent than her, but her Keeneland race was significantly better.

3rd #10 Quiet Dawn has been fairly consistent in his fourth and fifth place finishes.  It’s time for her to improve and take a step up, her works are starting to look better.

Race 6

1st #5 Do Share is a graded stakes winner who took the Tom Fool this spring.  He’s loaded with talent, just shy of $700K in earnings. Although he’s the heavy favorite, there are many reasons, but the easiest to explain in the son of Candy Ride (ARG) is just the most talented of them all.

2nd #3 Curate was four when he started racing, which isn’t something that common.  But he’s rallied on to win four out of ten starts, over $200K in earnings, and made himself known particularly earlier in his career when he won two in a row.

3rd #4 Seven Trumpets is a nice, multiple graded stakes placed horse.  He’s made over $450K and he’s only four years old. He’s consistent, especially in the tough races he’s ran in this last year.  I think he gets some class relief here compared to this spring, and I think it’ll be good for him.

Race 7

1st #8 Little Menace ran the best of everyone else out of the field in his debut.  I really think with how Steve Asmussen trains his horses, especially with two-year olds, he’s got a chance to be great.

2nd #7 Shanghai’s Dream is up and down in his performances, which makes him hard to gage.  Last out his race was better than his others, but it’s still been a rocky start to his career.

3rd #5 Speightstown Again made up some ground in his debut, which was good to see.  Again, another who should improve in his second race, and he sold for $675K, but has a long way to go to improve.

Race 8

1st #3 Perfectly Majestic is a graded stakes winner now down to running for $25K.  That Del Mar win last out was pretty awesome and it’s his first race at Churchill.  I love his consistency and his hard-trying form.

2nd #10 Snakes Creek has decent form, been running in some tougher races this year and what I like the most was his summer campaign at Ellis, yet to win here but has finished second.

3rd #5 Conquest Windycity is graded stakes placed.  Another nice horse who kind of went down the drain and is now running for a cheaper tag.  He still has talent but he just needs to utilize it.

Race 9

1st #6 Shared Sense is the Brad Cox runner who’s in pretty good shape here.  Heavy favorite, homebred for Godolphin with quality breeding and a couple of fabulous second place finishes.

2nd #10 Decision Maker ran fifth in his first start.  He’s a homebred for the connections. He’s by Court Vision out of Town Queen which is a stakes winning mare.

3rd #8 Liberty Blue didn’t have a great first race, losing by thirteen and a half.  Bettors usually understand that horses starting their careers aren’t always that successful.

Race 10

1st #9 Mine My Time is pretty good, but hasn’t won in over a year, his last win was at this track.  Julien Leparoux is a top jockey and he’s definitely worth throwing in a bet on. Greg Foley is a good trainer too.

2nd #10 U R Not So Bad ran his career best last out even though he didn’t win.  He’s consistent and hard trying, always worth a bet. It was interesting how he sold for $210K, and later sold for $20K.  Something was up.

3rd #2 Miracle Hill is toughly inconsistent.  I don’t think he can win (watch me get jinxed), but another class drop could help him greatly.  He just hasn’t shown much, but compared to some of the others look ok.

Race 11

1st #2 Chess Chief is tough to beat, a multiple graded stakes placed fella.  He’s got so much talent, stepping down a little compared to the graded races, but his third-place last out was fantastic.

2nd #5 Icon broke his maiden impressively last out, and is bred to be a star.  He has much less experience than the entire field which concerns me a little, but I am also going off of his win.

3rd #3 Ucanthankmelater has had a nice career too, unlike Icon, has a lot more experience compared to some of the others.  Although this spot is tough, I do see him hitting the board.

Race 12

1st #10 Lucky Dime is the Bill Moss trainee, by Creative Cause, out of an Indian Charlie mare.  Only off the board once from four starts and almost $50K in earnings. She’s good looking in this field.

2nd #4 Jilted Bride has nice pedigree, by Wicked Strong out of Cry At My Wedding (Street Cry (IRE)), and she has solid connections, sold for $150K, and has a second and third from her two starts.3rd #3 Lipstikliesnlovers sold was an RNA at $145K which isn’t much for an American Pharoah baby, who’s had a hot year.  She’s making her career start for trainer Eddie Kenneally, ridden by Corey Lanerie.

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