I’m very appreciative to be invited to the great group, that being The Daily Gallop. Not only am I excited to give a little info back to those who read, but to cover my home track is truly a treat. Although today is Saturday (just filling in for Gorgonzola), I will be writing weekly on Fridays, covering Churchill. Without any further ado, here are my selections for OPENING DAY of Churchill Downs!!
Race 1-
Something that you’ll see weekly from me at the Maiden Claiming ranks at Churchill will be the first time starters spi and dpi on the dam side. This isnt an angle that many use but over the course of the past three spring meets, I’ve found winners paying $57 (Derby Day 2019 Van Berg albeit MSW), $49, $83 (Hamilton runner with spi/dpi > 3), $64 (Larry Jones runner with spi/dpi > 4.5) and $72 winners.
When looking in the form for these numbers, you can find them in the PP’s on the far right hand side just under the stats for FST, OFF, DIS, TRF and AW.
#9 Takechargecomanche 15/1: Why not just start the meet off with a bomb, ay? When you look down the form, this is the runner with the highest spi/dpi, both > 3. Has been working well at the Churchill Training Track with a nice 5/8ths drill from the gate in 1:01.1 and galloped out in 1:13.8/1:27.4. Hernandez does sign on a bug boy to jump on and I would expect this one to attempt to go to the front today. Speaking of Hernandez, he does show a +ROI with debut runners at the MCL level albeit miniscule. Lastly, horse comes from a dam who has produced 3 winners from 6 starters and 2 stakes winners. The biggest downfall might be the fact that sire is 0fer with FTS which is a big “woof”. Either way, the price will be right at the chalk will get EXTREMELY overplayed in here so the price will, or at least SHOULD, be right.
#6 Skyburst 6/1: I dont know where else to go in here. The horses that have seen the track before are nothing to write home to mom about so I landed on another FTS for Moquett who draws Rosario to ride. This runner was seen quite often in the AM at OP but never saw the track which many would see as a concern. There were a plenty of opportunities at OP so to see this one show up at the MCL level seems “odd” but finds a reasonable spot and perhaps the level more suitable to this runner, as opposed to the MSW races in Arkansas. I love the 4f drill on May6 :48.1 and the 3f drill from the gate seemed strong. To lure a top jock like Rosario seems to be the key here and to get a combo like Moquett and Rosario at a price anywhere near 6/1 against these type of runners might be stealing money.
#4 J’s Warrior 12/1: I’m always the sucker for the equipment change angles. With this one, we have multiples. Not only are we adding blinkers, this one is a first time gelding as well. Chad Summers seems to do quite well with these specific changes and his +ROI nearly across the board speaks volumes in a race where I specifically hate the chalk. I dont think you’ll see 12/1 tomorrow on this runner when the cappers see the 4f drill in :46 and change or the 5f drill right after that in 1:00 flat. A move to the conventional dirt, first time gelding, 2nd time lasix and adding the blinks could do the trick.
** I’m fading the chalk completely. A horse that is 0/8 and now taking a major drop while coming off the shelf doesnt seem like a recipe for success. Is he the one to beat? Sure. Just wont be my cup of tea at odds on.
Race 2-
#4 Seeds of Time 3/1: If it wasnt for Monomoy Girl in the 4th, I think this is the likeliest winner of the earlier sequences. A reclaim by Maggi Moss for Tom Amoss, needed one off the shelf and now finds a much more reasonable spot here. Horse loves CD (3-1-1-1) and distance 6-2-0-2. Amoss goes to a very aggressive rider in Graham who will get the pace scenario where she’ll have the most success. There shouldnt be any excuses from this runner today, she is the best on paper and we should find her back in the winners circle. NOTE: With an off track being a likely case, this runner is 4-2-1-1.
#3 Strollin the Bayou 5/1: Mare will get first run at them as they turn for home with a hot pace expected. Should be able to save ground for Foley/Rosario combo who havent had many runners where they’ve teamed up but cant deny that this combo could be lethal. Nothing flashy that I see on the work tab but thats not out of the ordinary for this runner. I do like the fact that Foley places this one to win immediately and if fresh off the shelf, fits in here.
Race 3-
** SPREAD LEG OF EARLY SEQUENCES **
#8 Big Island 12/1: This one catches my eye a little bit in here. I can admittedly say that I dont know who Genevieve Londono is but her runner here is finally getting back to the main surface and track where he ran a 76 speed figure which would be competitive against the other top contenders here. Only 2 works since last seen on the track but thats not a big concern with this level of horses. Gets Pedroza in the irons who has ridden this gelding multiple times before who does his best running just off the pace which will be key. There is a lot of early foot in here so should get the set up if the move to the main track does the trick.
#4 He’s the Souperwon 7/2: Getting some class relief here, I think this gelding for Greg Foley will be super tough against this weak group. He does have some tactical speed and should be well positioned to take down the cheap speed horses in here. Doesnt hurt that this runner does have a win on the off going as well, that being a wire to wire victory against weaker. I would expect a big performance from this one today for a barn who just relishes winning at the home track, Churchill.
#2 Unbridled Ruler 15/1: Sure, this is a stretch but why not? When we get a lot of rain at CD, the rail and speed usually do very well. Perhaps this one can get to the front end and rock them to sleep on the front end if others dont break extremely sharp. Prescott does very well with front end runners and gets the mount here. In these cheap races a lot of crazy things can happen and we are looking for some sort of chaos here.
Race 4-
#2 Monomoy Girl 4/5: The likeliest winner of the entire card. She does get a group of really accomplished horses though. Shes the class of the class, the mare of all mares and there will no excuses for her to take care of this group. She is the chalk, she will be 1/5 or 2/5 but she is the goods and has been absolutely fantastic in her return to the track in the mornings. I cant wait to see here gallop like she did in 2018.
#7 Lady Kate 7/2: The only TRUE contender in here is this filly for Kenneally. He gets Ortiz in the irons and has some back class to rely on. We have seen this one run three times this year, 3 times more then the other two top contenders, and perhaps those efforts could prove to be vital as she is in form and we dont know what we might get from the other two coming off the shelf. I’ll use this runner in a couple Pick5’s just in case Monomoy doesnt run a step off the long layoff.
Race 5-
#18 Amani’s Eagle 3/1: I wont like the post but now with the move over to the main track (being off turf), this has to be the one you have to beat in here. Has two prior efforts at FG, both of which were solid. The run LTO was perhaps the most impressive. Broke well first time routing, chased around the chalk who ended up being a runaway winner. Now will face a bunch of turf runners on his preferred surface while improving… this will be the chalk but will be very tough in here. NOTE: Has been a constant fixture in the AM at FG. We see slew of works which tells me that Asmussen had one thing in mind… ship to CD for a race like this. We were never going to see him again at FG. The one to beat.
#8 Handy 8/1: It’s been a heckofa long time since we’ve seen this one on the track but if you take the effort from Oct2019 at KEE, routing, there is no reason why he cant win against this group of runners. That day at KEE was also an “off the turf” MSW where this one broke on the front end and was just passed late in the lane, finishing 2nd by 3 lengths. He did beat the rest of that field by 2 1/4+++ (9 other runners) so that is something to note. With the “unknown” factor of these runners moving from turf to dirt, perhaps Beschizza can lull them to sleep on the front end with this one. NOTE: KEE is a tough and rugged track to train on so the fact that we see this one working over there since being laid off would make me believe that this one will be ready to roll at first asking off the shelf.
#7 Oxide 8/1: It’s laughable if you think you are going to get anywhere near this ML with this race now being moved off the turf. You can see that this one has yet to see a main fast track and has had some previous success on the “off the turf” MSW type races. Two races back, at GP, you see that this runner broke on the lead, through slow fractions, and was just snagged at the wire losing by 3/4 of a length. It just happens to be that this colts best efforts have come with Ortiz riding and who do we get today? You got it, Jose Ortiz. Another speed figure like 87 or better puts this one right there, if not on top against this group of runners. NOTE: Again, another runner who is working at KEE and the work on May8 was just eye popping, 4f :47.2 and horse was doing it willingly.
#4 Contractor Bill 20/1: I dont know if I could ever use this horse on top in exotics but I will be using in my Pick5. The runner, albeit running against weaker, does have some speed figures that would make this one competitive against this group. Some of the efforts on the poly will translate well to the muddy track he’ll see today at CD. Sonny Leon will be given one instruction, go to the front or near the front and see if we cant pick things up as we turn for home. Has been working quite well over at the Churchill training center so perhaps this one could steal it at a big big big number.
Race 6-
#5 Irritator 3/1: This ML will be a gift if you get it at PT. I dont think that’ll be the case and to be honest, I think this runner could be as low as 8/5. This gelding for Amoss has been a level of consistency for Maggi Moss after being claimed back in Jan. The return to a wet track and CD could just do the trick as he is 1-0-0-1 at CD and 4-3-0-0 on the off going. Has been working consistently prior to the ship at FG, both of those 1/2 mile drills. Amoss puts on his main man in KY, Graham, on for this effort. Reasonable and respectable level, snags Graham who has won last two times on this runner and gets a wet going… the one to beat and the chalk.
#11 Knights Key 6/1: I’m not really sure what to think about this steady decline in class and now hits a near bottom here but… I do think he finds a weak group with an off going that will prove to be a positive for this runner. Part of the reason why I like this runner is because if you look at the back tracks to the last three races, this runner didnt have much of a chance with the rides that he received. I’m hoping that the move to Lep can really do the trick here. Although not being in for a tag, this is perhaps the lowest level this runner has raced in a long long long time. Should be tough with the outside post.
#9 Floroplus 4/1: What could be just a TP warrior, I’ll use this one in the Pick6 just in case he can replicate these nice TP speed figures over to the CD main track. The 89,84,91,85 speed figures would fit perfectly with this group. I’d like to mention that the last three efforts have been for a new barn and all of them they had Alex Achard to ride and they dont steer away from that here, putting him on once again. This runner does have a win over the CD main track and is undefeated on the wet going. Has a big chance here.
#4 Tommytom 20/1: LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY is right here with Tommytom. Julie Burke up to ride, this runner back in Nov2018 ran against AOC62.5 runners here at CD and ran well that day. As a matter of fact, this runner briefly took the lead down the lane only to run into quick sand and get past throughout the lane. Since then, you have seen this runner on the turf and poly and I believe the move back to the main track is just what this one needs. Has raced once on the off going and that was a win back in early 2018. Perhaps some of the back class will show the ability and perhaps this weak field could provide a combo that will light up the board at a monster number!
Race 7-
#6 Tormenta 12/1: From best longshot of the day to BEST BET OF THE DAY right here for this Larry Jones runner. This filly has been moved over to the hands of Jones after a debut surprise effort at 33.1/1. The connections have seen the talent of this one and wanted her in good hands. Has been training lights out, although, not fast and the move has always been to ship her up here to run. When looking at some of Larry Jones’ stats, it surprises me that he’s not better when he gets a runner for the first time but is 20% with shippers, 18% off this type of layoff and does put Sanjur on who is his “staying under the radar jockey” with live runners. When it comes to that debut, this horse really had all the trouble at the start and still ran on impressively down the lane while having a ridiculous time throughout. She comes from a bloodline that is FILLED WITH MUDDERS so the off going shouldnt be an issue whatsoever, if nothing else, she should actually be better. This is my best bet of the day and a horse that I’ll key in everything. If she doesnt win, I wont win.
Race 8-
#17 Dinar 3/1: What could end up being a back to back single, this runner for DeVaux draws in with this race being taken off the turf. Horse loves the CD track 3-1-1-1 and loves the off going with his only effort on the wet being a mile effort at CD (todays distance and track) and was a 2nd place effort against a really tough MSW field. Has been working really well and steadily over the past couple months since being last seen in Feb on the race day. I would presume that Gaff maintains this mount and thats a huge plus with his history with runner. As far as race set up, being drawn far outside, this one does have tactical speed and should be well positioned as they turn for home, getting first crack at them. There is no reason why this runner shouldnt be able to get the job done today.
#2 Hellorhighwater 8/1: From 8/1 to 3/1 just like that with the move over to the dirt. This one has efforts on the wet dirt previously and both of those efforts were nice. The running style wont help him a whole lot as it’ll be tough to run them down in the lane today with the track being sealed. With that being said, there is actually a lot of speed in here signed on so perhaps everything just completely backs up and this one will pick up the pieces. Has been working well down the road at KEE, with a 4f drill :47.2 and I love how Miller sneaks in another effort on 5/10, that being a 4f drill :52.1. I believe this one will be ready off the shelf. I just wonder about the distance issue (race seems short) and whether or not he can make up ground down the lane.
#5 Danny California 8/1: This could be the sneaky runner in here for Orlando Noda. Somehow this small time trainer gets a rider like Rosario to jump on while shipping from NY to KY for this effort here. You can see that previously Rosario rode for West Point prior to being claimed in some efforts over the BEL turf course. Perhaps they got in touch and want to win, RIGHT NOW. With the move to the dirt course, I dont think that bothers these connections whatsoever. You can see an effort 4 back at AQU where this one ran over the off going and only lost by 1/2 length against a nice state bred ALW field. NOTE: I really like to see that 4f drill :48 and change at BEL just prior to the ship to CD today.
Race 9-
#6 Sacred Oath 12/1: Y’all remember when Dio surprised everybody with Dunph at 50/1+ on Ark Derby Day? Well, can anybody tell me the owner? Richard Davis. Can you tell me the running lines of Dunph prior to that effort? Fair. Do you see where I’m going with this? Today, we have Sacred Oath who was just claimed by Richard Davis, gave to Dio and here will be his first effort for this barn. We know what Dio can do first off the claim, he puts up Cohen (who also rode Dunph) and horse is missing AT LEAST 1 work, if not 2 prior to this effort. Horse has had some success on the off going, breaking his maiden on off track, will relish the single turn today going 7f and again the trifecta of Dio/Davis/Cohen is something that we cant dismiss. I know this is a “crazy pick” but we’ve seen this before.
#4 Yamano Maker 6/1: The connections have really struggled as to where this one should be. Should he be on grass? Main track? Sprinting? Going long? They’ve tried it all but I think today is the day where they find out what they need to do moving forward. We’ve seen this one have some success going just a single turn and on the main track and the best speed figures have come from there as well. We have seen this one run well on the off going, that being the debut against a really nice MSW field that has had a stakes winner come out of. If Mott isnt up against the juicy juice of Dio, we could see this one grab the money on the wire. NOTE: The workouts in the AM arent anything of a surprise from a guy like Mott. He doesnt usually push his runners in the morning and this one has been slow.
Race 10-
#2 Portrait 4/1: This will be the only runner that I’ll use in the Pick5 and Pick4. I just love this runner SPRINTING. I know Brad Cox tried this one stretching out and the efforts were ok but the maiden score sprinting was what we all remember from this one. Moving this one back to 7f, against fillies in this AOC, I think we could see another top top effort from this one. Has been working with, in pairings at times with, Monomoy Girl in the mornings at KEE and hasnt been that you just forget about. As a matter of fact, when you watch her gallop, she just does it so willingly and so easy. I dont want to say that JJ just has to hold on but with the track being sealed all night last night, inside, speed, will kill. Thats what we have here and I think this should start up some buzz for this filly moving forward throughout the rest of the year.
#11 Aurelia Garland 8/1: IF you are looking for others to use, you have to look towards this horse. I know she’s been off since May of 2019, I know she got moved from Ward to Brisset but this one has been really really good in the morning at Pmm and looks extremely fit. #7 Sconsin 12/1 for Foley gets Rosario and would rather chase then be on the lead so the extra 8th of a mile might prove to be a benefit if the race really gets smoking on early. We all know that Foley loves to win races at CD, his home track.
Race 11-
#4 Karak 4/1: Ward oddly enough hasnt tried the main track with this one, which I find interesting. I know the horse is bred for the turf but has some family that loves the main track as well. With the race now being taken off the turf, we will get to see the talent on display once and for all. That April 22 work at KEE was lights out, 4f :46.3 and thats the type of speed that this one contains. Corrales gave such a good ride in the stakes race at TP that Ward brings him back to ride in this spot. I think 4/1 turns into 2/1 as they go off but this is the one that they’ll have to catch down the lane.
#6 Ununderstandable 10/1: A runner for Kobiskie who has been off since last fall where we saw her at KEE, now finds herself in a race that is taken off the turf where she seems to have better numbers. Breeding tells me that the off going shouldnt be an issue whatsoever and the sprint should fit this one like a glove. I dont believe that this one can outrun the Ward runner out of the gate but Lanerie rides with so much confidence that I do believe he will get this one out early and in a good position to get a fair run at the Ward horse. Kobiskie does so many goofy things in the AM that to see nothing “super quick” doesnt surprise me. Speed figures are slow and I get that but the specific days in which this one raced, all the figures were extremely slow. I think 10/1 is fair and we could get a float from that number.
#14 Tulanian 12/1: Another runner who I think, actually parked outside, has tactical speed but doesnt need the lead whatsoever. Has been nice to see that this one been working lights out in the morning over at KEE. Again, another runner who’s speed figures are a little on the slower side but the ability is there. We know that Amoss loves to win races specifically at CD and doesnt typically put in a runner that cant win. I know breeding says that turf is prolly more the style for this one but I actually think that we’ve seen the talent of this runner on the races where the race has been moved over to the main surface. Combine working well, price, Amoss wanting to win early and often this meet. You could see a really really nice price on this one.
I wish everybody the best of luck on opening day of Churchill Downs. I hope we can find some winners and if you all have any questions, you can find me behind the handle @DaVilleKY32 on Twitter.