It’s opening day under the twin spires and the always fun night racing. First post 6:00pm EDT. Let’s make it an enjoyable and profitable night.
Race 1 – 5- Data Star was well beaten last time while terribly spotted on the raise to special weight company. Now back into maiden claiming company, and again to the lowest level she’s been entered at. Big upgrade in jockey and trainer. We expect this horse to improve off those two and three back races, which makes her squarely the one to beat.
2- Street Rally gets the blinkers on and goes back to dirt for trainer Ian Wilkes. Both profitable moves for this barn. Will have to run considerably faster on speed figures to upend the top pick, but stands a chance to do so with this one’s new circumstances today.
4- Orleans showed brief speed and faded on debut last out at Keeneland. This is a soft race and the speed figure this one earned that day doesn’t totally eliminate this longshot from contention, especially if you handicap improvement in her second career race.
Race 2 – 2- Rich Daddy being dropped down to the $25,000 is an aggressive move for trainer Eddie Kenneally. We think $25,000 is low enough for this one to be logical short priced winner with Mr. Churchill jockey Corey Lanerie in the irons. Form of the last race was flattered when Diamond King was just headed in finishing 2nd in the Gr.2 Charlestown Classic. Tactics employed in that last race hurt ‘Daddy, and we handicap a ground saving rail trip closer to the speed today.
4- Conqueror was a solid second last time at Keeneland at the level going wide both turns and getting ran down by a descent So-Cal shipper Beantown Boys who went favored that afternoon. Second off a freshening. Should go close again.
1- California Swing should be in the mix late cutting back in distance and going back in for tag.
Race 3 – 6- Moonfield was a respectable third last time going a route of ground for the first time. A step forward off that race makes her the one to beat in this weak maiden claiming affair.
7- Blank Canvas figures to set the pace and try to hold on late. If this one can have a three length lead at the 1/8th pole, then I think she’s going to get home on top.
5- Weightlessness is an interesting long shot as she is switching from a 0% barn to a 28% win percent barn. Stretching out shouldn’t be a problem for this daughter of derby winner Super Saver.
Race 4 – 1- Five Star Factor was scratched out of a race at Keeneland a few weeks ago in favor of running in this spot at Churchill. Pace play here as this one projects to sit a nice ground saving cozy trip just off the speeds of the 2 and 5 and get first run on the rest.
6- Faith Healer is another off the pace type who should benefit from the projected fast pace. Laid off since December. Cut out to be a descent one as she broke her maiden in her third start against special weight company at Churchill, albeit it was 18 months ago. Showed some consistency last fall here. Should go close.
2- Mistress At Sea was a nice maiden special winner at Mahoney two back. Tough trip from the rail when spotted too aggressively in the stake race off that win. So now dropping down to a more realistic spot, this one projects to try and take the field gate to wire.
Race 5 – 2- Golden Tiger is the top pick in a competitive race on the ‘make-over’ angle. Gets freshened up, take the blinkers off, drops in for tag, and goes route to sprint. Thinking the Starlight partners thought they had a good one and that’s why they tried routes a few times. But now they are getting realistic and today looks to be the day for this group. Winner of that last race went on the win the Louisiana Derby and wouldn’t surprise many if it goes on to win the Kentucky Derby.
4- Grits and Glory has not been seen in over a year since running in a quality baby maiden special weight last spring here. Took some money that day too, so you know this one showed it could a little in the mornings. Now in for the $50,000 tag off the layoff and comes in gelded. Solid breeze pattern. 6-1 is fair value on this one.
8- One for Richie gets back to sprinting on the dirt, which has produced the best form of this one’s career so far. Projects to be on or near the lead early and try to kick on down the stretch holding off the closers.
Race 6 – 1- Murad Khan projects to get a nice ground saving trip from the rail either on the lead or pocketed up just off it. Has some back class and speed figures last year showing he belongs at this level. Likely needed that race at Gulfstream in March off the long layoff. Now second up should move forward.
8- Another was third just behind our second choice at Keeneland last time. This four year old for Bill Mott seems to be getting better race by race and stands a big chance to win this affair.
7- Space Mountain owns two wins over the Churchill lawn at this condition. Could offer value returning back to the turf course he prefers the most. Horse for course angle here.
Race 7 – 5- We normally stay away from these career maiden types, but in this six horse race we see zero speed. Hopefully jockey Julien Leparoux aboard 5- Makeamericagreatagain will recognize this and put him on the lead and wire this field. Second start off the layoff. Lopresit barn starting to heat up in later part of the Keeneland meet. We’ll side with experience here.
1 – Gentle Warrior was second last time at this level and distance at Keeneland and figures to go favored. If Brian puts this one in the pocket just off the lead, we could see this guy popping that pocket top of the lane and kicking home to win it.
6- Historian drops in class and faces easier while getting blinkers today.
Race 8 – THE WILLIAM WALKER –
1- Bulletin is very fast and very good for Todd Pletcher. Took the inaugural running of the Breeder’s Cup Juvy Sprint over this course last year. Came back in great form easily winning the 3 year old turf sprint stake at Keeneland on opening weekend there. Second off the layoff should be long gone from flag fall to that all.
7- Abyssinian was third behind the top pick last time at Keeneland. Third off the layoff. Bullet breeze at Keeneland after that last race. Should make a good account of himself again today.
3- Legends of War is a question mark shipping in from France and making his three year old debut. Faced graded stakes company in the fall overseas and wasn’t embarrassed. We think this one will need to really improve as a three year old to win.
Race 9 – 8- Belle Tappisserie was a nice winner first off the claim for Eddie Kenneally at Gulfstream last out. Gelded since that last start. Figures to sit a nice outside stalking trip on or near the lead.
5- Torazo lost all chance at the start last time at Keeneland. Was productive for us at Turfway over the winter. Has some solid efforts at higher class levels last year producing speed figures good enough to win this race. We think 6-1 is a good price on this one who fits with these.
2- Sighforsoreyes takes the blinkers off and goes back in for a tag for the first time in a while. This owner claimed him for $62,500 last year and is willing to lose him for $40,000, so we see that as an aggressive spot this one is in. Tossing the Charlestown race. Two back was up against it versus the likes of maybe the best sprinter in the country in Mitole.
1- Twin Farms has rallied off two straight wire jobs off the claim for Amoss. Should be a part of the pace and could win today.
Race 10 – 3- Combustible projects to be on or near the lead, which is always dangerous when the rails are out over this course. Solid effort last time at Keeneland in an off the turf race. Took a race against similar two back at the Fair Grounds. A repeat of that two back race puts him close this afternoon.
7- Shared Value was an open length winner in his only race versus claiming company on the turf. Now gets that again today. Should sit a nice forward trip under Gaffalione today.
4- Apreciado drops back down into claiming company after facing tougher first off the claim. Two wins over the Churchill lawn.