Race 1: $10,000 OC/5k Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 3-5-4
A similar field assembled three weeks ago at this level, and I’m expecting a similar outcome again today. Laddie Boy (3) bested even money favorite Reason To Soar (5), just getting up in the shadow of the wire. I’m expecting another hot pace again, to set up a late surge from this guy, who has won three of his last four. Reason To Soar (5) does his best work on the lead, and it looks like he’s going to have to battle for it again. Diodoro reclaimed him and now keeps him protected, which is a good sign. He’s likely to fight hard again. Torazo (4) is second off the layoff, and would be another beneficiary of a strong early pace. Bejarano taking the mount
Race 2: $40,000 Claiming NW3L or 3yo, 1 Mile 1/16: My Picks: 4-1-6
Despite this race having dual conditions, all seven horses in here compete under the NW3L condition, as there are no three year olds the entered. Mo’s Mojo (4) looks to be the lone speed in this wide open field. He’s in his third race after a long layoff, so I’m expecting that he will be fit and ready to fire. Limonite (1) was once on the Derby trail and has been trying turf of late. He’s kept strong company lines and should benefit from the drop in class. Doups Point (6) is another horse that is offered for tag for the first time. He moves into the Wayne Catalano barn and exits state bred company. He’s cutting back from nine furlongs, which is a plus for me while facing others who are stretching out.
Race 3: $10,000 Maiden Claiming, F/M, 1 Mile 1/16: My Picks: 3-7-6
Bottom maiden filly and mares compete here. I’ll take a chance on the shipper Sweet Willemia (3) who ships in and returns to the main track after a disastrous turf try at Indiana Grand last out. Her dirt form is better and was improving. She is bred to like a longer distance, so she might offer a little value in her first dirt try at two turns. Paddy Kaye’s Wild (7) won’t be hindered by the distance, but the main track is a bit of a question mark. She was beaten 14 lengths in her only dirt try, in an off the turf maiden claimer at Tampa. She was coming off a layoff that day, so there’s reason to think she’ll be better here, but I don’t envision getting a great price on her. Not A Needy Gal (6) drops to the bottom after two even efforts against $30K maiden claimers here. She she’s been sprinting and could be another one that benefits from a longer trip.
Race 4: $40,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile and 1/16, Turf: My Picks: 2-7-4
The first turf contest of the day features a large field, many of whom seem adverse to winning. Ahnaf (2) has been away since June after turning in a credible effort on this course with maiden special weights. He should be a late threat here as there are a few that prefer to go early. Pintxos (7) has been improving from a speed figure standpoint. He’s had many chances but does drop for a tag for the first time. Alfons Wade (4) was much better here last year, but hasn’t had the same punch this year. He drops and may benefit from stretching out off his last effort at Kentucky Downs.
Race 5: $10,000 Claiming NW3L or 3yo, F/M, 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 4-7-3
This a tough group to figure out, but I’ll try Tapigal (4) who should benefit from a return to dirt racing after faltering in a two turn turf race against better horses. She’ll be forwardly placed, which has been an advantage on this course over the last week. A repeat of her last effort on dirt will likely be enough here. Fed Policy (7) has improved on the grass of late. I don’t usually bet horses with better figures on turf than on dirt, but her two year old form in turf and dirt was similar, so it’s fair to expect improvement on dirt today. Traci’s Greeley (3) has hit the board in her last four and seven of her last nine races, all against conditioned claimers. She takes a step up after a strong win last time. I don’t love her record on this course, but I don’t think she’s facing stiff competition either.
Race 6: $62,500 Optional Claiming/NW2X Allowance, F/M, 1 Mile, Turf: My Picks: 7-5-3
Cash Out (7) is the most likely winner in this race and on the card. Her turf form is just better than these, and she’s been facing significantly better when she’s run on the group. She gets a soft field for the conditions, and unless Extra Effort (1) or Turtle Trax (5) turn out to beasts on turf, she should get the job done. I do like Turtle Trax (5) to run well enough to hit the board, as she’s worked well enough on synthetic and she is getting class relief. His Glory (3) has improved while switching to the turf. Toss her effort in the Regret where she was outclassed, and she fits nicely for a piece here.
Race 7: $50,000 Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 6-3-4
You could build a decent case for about six of the nine horses in this race, but factoring in recent form and the current track profile, I think this race favors My Man Flintstone (6). He won on the front end against conditioned claimers last week and wheels right back in a protected spot. He’s clearly doing well, and if you cross out his two turf races, his recent form is the best of this bunch. Majestic West (3) is consistent and is the most likely upsetter here. I think the 6 Furlong distance is a shade too short for him, but this is a good class level, and cutting back from 9 Furlongs may give him a stamina edge over many of these who might be struggling to finish. Coltonator (4) is another one who has been in his best career form in his last three races. Edgemont Road ran his eyeballs out last time beating this one by 8 lengths, and I’m not sure anyone in here can match that effort.
Race 8: Allowance NW1X, 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 3-5-8
Spycraft (3) makes his first start of the year and his first start since joining the Brad Cox barn. He was last seen in the Nashua, which was one of the stronger 2 year old stakes races last year. He was well beaten that day, but 1 Mile may have been too long. He’s been working well, and should be a contender here. So Cal shipper Julius (5) is the main threat and the likely favorite in this race. He’s been really good for Miller since being claimed. He has been a winner here before and has won 4 times in his career, but is still eligible for this condition. Kadri (8) was an impressive maiden special weight winner on Derby Day. If he can repeat that effort, he’ll be very tough here.
Race 9: $80,000 Optional Claiming/NW3X Allowance, F/M 1 Mile and 1/16, Turf, My Picks: 2-8-1
The feature race today has some talented fillies and mares dropping from stakes company. Strike My Fancy (2) had trouble at the break in the One Dreamer stakes three weeks ago at Kentucky Downs. She gets some class relief and runs in her second race off a brief layoff. I’m expecting her to be sharper today. Amazima (8) was fourth in her last two tries against stakes horses. This four year old continues to improve and should be a major player at this level. I would use both of these in the multi-race wagers. Quick Witted (1) has been off since losing bad to Mean Mary in the Orchid at Gulfstream. She can definitely be forgiven for that effort, and should be much better at this distance instead of 11 Furlongs which she got last time. She might need this race before finding her best form, but she can still be an impact underneath.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 8-1-6This is a strong maiden allowance to end the card today. There are some fillies with ability here and also well-meant first timers from Chad Brown and Steve Asmussen. Movie Moxy (8) is the likely favorite and the most likely winner. She held her own in a salty field for her debut here in June and then followed that up by just missing with a good field at Keeneland. The outside draw should work to her advantage and unless one of the well-bred firsters is a beast (which could be the case), she should graduate here. Miss Mess (1) worked hard to get to the front early on debut at Ellis, and faded a bit late. She should have more staying power and she benefits from the track being kind to speed right now. I prefer Entreat (6) from the Chad Brown barn slightly more than Capture (7), who is sent out by Asmussen, but the difference is small. Brown’s Kentucky string of horses has been sharp of late and her work tab is a bit deeper than Capture’s. I would still cover my bases with both on the multi-race bets, as you won’t get to see them in the paddock before punching those tickets.