Churchill Downs Racing Analysis — Friday, September 13, 2019, by Shawn Murphy

Hello handicappers, we are back, fall usually means cooler temps but Churchill is sizzling. Let’s make some money!

Race 1

4-3-7


Red hot 4- Lucy’s Town Looks to stay on a roll after two nice victories the latest being at Ellis Park. The consummate in the money horse.
#3 Zena rules looks to keep the trend going after nice races at Saratoga and Ellis.
#7 Colorincolonel has a 10-1 morning line which seems high considering she has been in the money 9 of 10.

Race 2

7-6-5

This looks like a nice betting race and we should be able to get some value here. #7 Limage Runs for Brad Cox who supports a hefty 27% switching maiden special weight to maiden claiming. She’s been way over her head in the last two and looks to run a nice race against much lower.
#6 Street Dazzle should have some value in here so nice place as she is third off a layoff and has been working well at Ellis.
#5 Finer Things I actually like the race of May 9 at Churchill at a tougher class she beat half the field and has shown consistency in her speed figures.

Race 3

1-5-6


The entry looks good but may not show much value and I would think one of them will be scratched. However, I’m still leaning to the entry. They both show quality at this level for a high percentage trainer and jockey combination.
#1- Fra Mauro looks the best of the two and really hasn’t run a bad race for a long time, I like the last dirt race in October at Churchill as a reference point.
5- King Ford his run well in his last two at Ellis at this level and looking for the same here also shows a win at Churchill.

Race 4

6-5-7


Boy this race is a doozy and you should be able to get a price for your horizontals here.
I love the way that #6 dark Arden race last time and Alice first off a claim for Asmussen. I’m looking for a repeat here in a very weak field.
#5 Allidoisdreamofyou, will get you some value here, as he gets back to dirt and a surface he does much better with and a more suitable distance.
#7 Mono will also give value getting back to the dirt where he posted a nice speed figure back mid June.

Race 5

2-3-4-6


#2 Dominga has some great connections strong for start numbers and some really nice works coming into this first race.
#3 Sursum Corda and #4 Art of Law are both value plays out of constitution who is Shawn well so far with a limited number of starters.
#6 Sa Font Salada- Nice works nice turf pedigree quality connections.

Race 6

1-6-7


On paper this high-end allowance optional claimer looks like chalk chalk chalk. The one entry of recruiting ready and he hate me both to a liking for the distance and the track but will not show much value. The 6- Kowboy Karma and #7 Mr. Crow are also high-quality liking the track and the distance.

Race 7

2-3-1-5-9


As you can see I like a lot of them in here and may use them for horizontals as this is a wide open field.
#2 Lilis Song jumped out at me after reviewing the workouts the distance Pedegree and the strong connections.

3- Princessinha Julia should do much better in her second start as she stretches out in which she has been bred for.
#1- Tempers Rising had a nice first start a bit of time off and some nice works, should do well going longer.

Race 8

5-1-2


Now here’s a race that I would probably pass as I looked at it for a long time and could not make heads or tails of who’s going to step up.

#5- Inthemidstofbiz was all business in her first and only start back in December, show some nice works getting ready for this first race back for quality connections.

#1 Diamond crazy and #2 Rumandice have been running well of late.

Race 9

2-5-4


2- Alkhaatam has run well in all but once. The speed figures align well in this class and I like the change in Jockey and the running style.

5- Captivating Moon gets back on the dirt after being on the turf for a long time, it’s only dirt try back at Churchill was very credible and moves down considerably from his last two races.
4- Blue Ridge Traveller – container for long layoff second time blinkers and a very credible performance also shows some nice works coming in for a very capable connection.

Race 10

10-3-2-1-4


Lots to like here for #10 Dinar, The workouts have been great I like the change in jockey and I think the running style will play well in tonight’s finale. I have included five horses that can be used in horizontals to end the day.
#3- Queens Mason gets blinkers here and judging by the recent workouts the blinkers are working.
2- Young Philip has not run a bad race for these high-quality connections and should show well here.

Enjoy the day, pick winners and giddy up!!

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