It’s the final Friday of the year at Churchill Downs and we have a strong 11 race card, highlighted by the Grade 1 Clark, which drew an overflow field of 15 horses. Even with the River City being cancelled due to the turf course not being suitable for the remainder of the meet, there are many good betting opportunities today and throughout the weekend.
Race 1: $30,000 Maiden Claiming, 7 and ½ Furlongs: My Picks: 2-1-5
The opener is a maiden claiming event at the unusual 7 and ½ Furlong distance. As a result, there’s a mix of stretch out sprinters and routers cutting back in distance. Mau Mau (2) drops into maiden claiming company after six tries against maiden allowance foes, all of which came at two turns. Mott has had him work a little quicker in the AM in preparation for this cutback. I think when others are struggling late, he’ll be finishing the best. Lemon and Diem (1) makes his third career start as he stretches out and drops in class. Both of his races had sub 22 opening quarters, where he was left with a lot of work to do early. On paper, that scenario seems to be highly unlikely in this race. He should be closer to the pace and likely to be more involved at the end. Autopilot (5) is probably the most likely pacesetter in this race that is devoid of any real speed. He ran his best career race last time, while spotted at this level. I prefer the top two, but he is definitely live, and should be able to at least get a piece of the pie here.
Race 2: $15,000 Maiden Claiming, 2yo, 1 Mile: My Picks: 6-9-10
I’m trying to seek out value in a full field of baby maiden claimers, where there isn’t a huge separation from top to bottom. Unspoken Memories (6) was a bit slow away on debut with better horses here two weeks ago. The one mile distance should be to his liking, being by War Front out of an Indian Charlie mare. Surmont (9) is one of only a few that have speed figures that trend up with each start. He drops, changes barns, and picks up Gaffalione, who has been red hot, winning at 30% for the meet. Hickerson (10) was an improved third at this level behind a runaway winner last time out. The cutback to the flat mile and the outside draw should be positives.
Race 3: $62,500 Optional Claiming/NW2X Allowance, 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 2-1-4
We have a loaded five horse field, featuring the return of last year’s Iroquois winner, Dennis’ Moment (4). I’m siding with Silver State (2), who showed a lot of potential early this year when dipping his toes on the Derby Trail. He was off over the summer, after a dull try in the Louisiana Derby. He came back with a monster run at 7 Furlongs with NW1X foes at Keeneland. He moves up, but has ran well with graded stakes foes in the past. Another big effort here, and this may be the last time we see this guy outside of stakes company. Shashashakemup (1) makes his first start off the claim by Peter Miller, who hits with 33% of those horses. He’s shown the ability to close, which may help. There doesn’t look like a ton of speed on paper, but any of the three on the outside could go. Dennis’ Moment (4) loves the track, but his form went South after disastrous runs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Fountain Of Youth, I think the strategy will be to put him in the race early, but I fear he might be a little keen off the layoff. He scratched Wednesday in favor of this spot.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 and 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 6-3-4
The horses with experience in this maiden dash don’t offer much to get excited about. I’ll land on Manitowish (6) from the Dale Romans barn, who makes his debut today. Romans isn’t great with first timers, but he’s had some success with his two year old class this season. This son of Carpe Diem has been working well, and drilled the fastest 4F work of 91 horses earlier in the week. Barakat (3) is another first time starter, this one from the Steve Asmussen barn. He has a strong string of works, and this barn has been on fire at this meet. Copa (4) is the most desirable of the horses with experience. He was sharp here two back at 6 Furlongs, but laid an egg last time out at 7 Furlongs. He adds blinkers and cuts back in distance. He’s probably the quickest early of the horses that have form to go off, and if the firsters don’t show up, he’ll likely be the one to benefit.
Race 5: NW1X Allowance, F/M, 6 and 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 4-6-3
I found this race to be tricky, as I really don’t care for any of these. As long as there’s value, I’ll try for the unknown quantity in Jen Take Charge (4) who is in line to make her first career dirt try. Her works at Keeneland are good enough, and her pedigree implies that dirt shouldn’t be an issue. Her figures on grass translate well to this field if she takes to the surface. Jilted Bride (6) improved greatly in two turn races this winter at Oaklawn before going on the shelf for seven months. She returns to a sprint at the track she broke her maiden at. She’s never thrown a bad effort to date. She Can’t Sing (3) consistently runs the best figures in the group but she seems to have forgotten how to win. She’s been beaten by several strong fillies this year (Sconsin, Mundaye Call, Casual, Miss T Too, Hendy Woods), and her last was her best effort in a while. However, I’m not eager to take a short price on horses like this.
Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Claiming, 2yoF, 5 and ½ Furlongs: My Picks: 8-9-1
Presque Isle shipper Universally (8) ran a deceptively decent debut with maiden special weight company last month, where she was beaten by a next out winner in Aug Lutes (11/7, Opt Clm/Alw, WO). She moves to the Glyshaw barn who has had some class droppers pop for him at big numbers. If she can run of dirt, she’ll be tough. Supertaleofhoudini (9) was checked hard in her debut and lost interest afterward. She drew the rail that day and should benefit from a drop in class and an outward draw. Ship It (1) is likely going to be a short priced favorite as she has steadily improved in her three tries in maiden special weight company. However, she cuts back from two turns, and hasn’t shown a burst of speed early, which would help with her rail draw and the short race. To me, she’s worth trying to beat.
Race 7: $50,000 Starter Allowance, F/M, 1 Mile and 1/16, My Picks: 2-8-7
I really like Funnybet (2) in this spot as she moves up in class to a protected spot. She’s improved in each of her five starts, winning nicely in her last two. She wheels back quick and has plenty of options from her inside draw. She looks very tough in this spot. Stripping (8) is lightly raced, breaking her maiden last out in start number two. She was dominating against lesser last time and should handle the two turn trip just fine. Graysonsmacho Gal (7) ran them off their feet last time out with restricted claimers at Keeneland. She looked like a different horse in her return to dirt racing. I’m not willing to take a short price on her, as she is a bounce candidate. However, there’s not a ton of speed here and she can win the race to the first turn, she could be a threat to keep on going.
Race 8: NW1X Allowance, F/M, 1 Mile and 1/16: My Picks: 1-6-4
O Seraphina (1) returned to the races in a 7 Furlong sprint at Keeneland and was thoroughly trounced, easing up in the stretch. Her only other start that was a sprint ended in a similar fashion. However, her two turn form was really good, including a second place finish to the highly regarded Taraz in February at Oaklawn. I think anywhere at 3-1 or better is great value for this one. Tempers Rising (6) outran her odds in races like the Fair Grounds Oaks and Kentucky Oaks, but has run down to her competition at the allowance level. That said, her form is better than many of these and she typically runs well on this oval. Storm at Sea (4) has some up and down form, but she could be one to pick off some horses late. Her running style lends better to turn races, which she’ll get today.
Race 9: $80,000 Opt. Claiming/NW3X Allowance, My Picks: 8-4-1
This optional claiming allowance appears on paper to be a show down between Hog Creek Hustle (4) and Lookin at Bikinis (8). I think the advantage with pace and at this distance goes to Lookin At Bikinis (8) who was defeated by Hog Creek Hustle (4) last out at Keeneland at this level going 7 Furlongs. He dueled hard that day, which was his first start in 10 months. He gets a softer field, less early pace, and an extra furlong, which tips the scale to his favor. Hog Creek Hustle (4) is in his sweet spot at 7 Furlongs, The Breeders’ Cup Sprint at 6 Furlongs was too short, and I think his late kick doesn’t have the same punch at 1 Mile. That said, he’s still better than most of these, and usually runs a big race at this level. Thirstforlife (1) is a horse for course here, who has run big races at this distance with stakes company in the past. He may have lost a step or two, but he could hit the bottom of the exotics here.
Race 10: The Grade 1 Clark, 1 Mile and 1/18, My Picks: 5-12-3
What a fantastic renewal of the Clark, which drew an overflow field of 15 (14 and an AE). I think the now horse in this race is Aurelius Maximus (5). He was a strong second in the Fayette last time at Keeneland, coming up just a hair short behind Mr. Freeze (7). He now makes his third start off the layoff, and is primed to get the perfect trip in here. I believe he another a jump forward, which he’ll need to beat these. By My Standards (12) has been so good this year, I’d have to believe his Breeders’ Cup Classic try was an aberration, where he was simply outclassed. He’s in search of his first Grade 1 win after some strong efforts in Grade 2 company. His wide draw isn’t ideal, but his class should prevail. Code Of Honor (3) is probably the classiest horse in this race, but he hasn’t had the breakout season his connections hoped for. He skipped the Breeders’ Cup in favor of this race, but he’s going to have to carve out a clean trip, likely from off the pace here.
Race 11: Maiden Special Weight, F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 7-9-8
I’m looking to outside posts for the nightcap, and I think the race runs through Silverbella (7). She put up a big figure two back at Oaklawn when she was narrowly defeated by a nice filly in Casual. She was a little flat in the early stages of her return on 11/8, but she was finishing well. I don’t think anyone in here is running a sub 22 opening quarter, meaning she should have much better position early on. Favorite Sin (9) tries the dirt for the first time after improving with each of her three tries on turf. She has shown no early speed on grass, but she does have Smoke Glacken as a dam sire, so there could be some sprint ability here. Kiss Theory (8) has been away since March for Dale Romans. She paired her Beyers in her first two tries and has been working regularly for her return.