Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves pumpkin spice, snow ball fights, sarcasm, and a good cuddle. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:00 post – MC 15K 1 Mile 2YO
4-7-5-1
In a weak field of seven low-level claimers, I have no interest in taking the ML favorite #1 Fake Solution. Taking a huge drop in class, changing surfaces, and short odds doesn’t excite me. This field is so weak that the two first time starters wouldn’t have to do too much to win at first asking. I prefer #7 Montt over #5 Naprome based on connections and morning works, but either could win at first asking. #4 Let It Go Indigo is my lukewarm selection. He was little more forwardly placed in his last race, his first going a route, and I expect some improvement based on a small freshening and some competent morning works.
Race Two: 1:30 post – Claiming 25000 1 3/16 3YO&Up
4-2-5-6
If you draw a line through the last race for #2 Securitz, he looks like the most likely winner in this short field of six claimers. I’m not super-pumped that Joe Sharp is running him for under the claiming price when he bought him, but you never know. #5 Capital Letters won last time out at this level, but that race was a little shorter. He makes complete sense, but you won’t get a price. #6 Vaporman looks to be improving back to his previous form of early 2018 and I can’t knock anyone using him. #4 Secret House didn’t run a step on October 20 for Tom Amoss and he didn’t run great in the first off the claim either. I’m not sure what to think as Amoss is entering him for half the original claim today. The November 6th workout signals a lightbulb and I like the weight relief he is getting with Morales up.
Race Three: 2:00 post – MC 50000 1 1/16 Mile 2YO Fillies
6-1-2-7
#7 Armony’s Angel started her career with much more promise than her last three efforts have shown. Kenny McPeek is finally running her in the claiming ranks and I expect the weaker foes will give her a necessary confidence boost. I just can’t take her at her ML price. #2 Bird Traffic showed a little punch in the stretch last month at Keeneland. She had a pretty horrible trip, but she kept trying down the lane. She might be good enough at this level. #1 Impulsive certainly ran a good enough race in the slop in her maiden debut. Morales decided to stay aboard, so she gets a few pounds against these and you get the running mate. Lots of value here. #6 Carolina Beach has yet to show up in the afternoon, but her morning lines indicate talent. She is taking another step down the ladder today and Ricardo Santana stays aboard for the third time. The workout on Halloween tells me that she is ready.
Race Four: 2:30 post – MC 40000 6F 3YO&Up
5-6-4-3
#3 Overanalyzfakenews has figured out how to run in the money, but the lightbulb just hasn’t gone on yet. It doesn’t look like Buff Bradley has made any changes, so I guess we can expect the same results. #4 Wild About Candy tried to rate in his last effort rather than run in his normally forward spot. I think he can steal this race on the front if the other speed is as cheap as it looks. #5 Blue Rooster had a respectable debut at Keeneland on 10/25. If Eddie Kenneally can get any improvement at all, he should be right there at the wire. #6 Elusive Hero returns to the track after a five month break. The first three races against MSW company are certainly good enough to win against these. I can’t say the recent works give me confidence, and the trainer change isn’t a positive sign either.
Race Five: 3:03 post – MSW 76K 5 ½ F Turf 2YO Fillies
14-1-11-10
A wide open MSW sprint and the horse I want is on the AE list, #14 Ginny B. The likely favorite #10 Khairiya makes perfect sense as the ML favorite, and it wouldn’t stun me to see her finally put it all together today. Rusty Arnold has a pair of first time starters that look like they can get the job done. #1 My Maiko and #11 Risky Ride have very similar morning workout lines and Brian Hernandez is listed as the jock of both. I have a sneaky suspicion that Hernandez is on the winner today: My Maiko if he stays in or Risky Ride if he draws in due to a My Maiko scratch.
Race Six: 3:36 post – Claiming 800b 1 Mile 3YO&Up
7-9-2-5
Honestly, all signs point to #9 Deauville Mist, but I can play her as the ML favorite. Though she has been wildly successful at Churchill Downs, she is far too inconsistent. #2 Shackira Shackira could swipe this from them all on the front end like she did in her last race against a little weaker. Though the Castanons usually know what they are doing, she looks to not like Churchill very much. I can certainly see #5 Stylitude has had three horrible races in a row, but she seems to relish the Churchill surface. At longer odds than the others, she could revert back to her earlier form and surprise them all here. #7 Union Obsession is my choice as I believe she has improved slightly in each of her last three races since being claimed from the Ramseys at the Pea Patch. She won her last race at a slightly lower level and she even beat a next-out winner in that race.
Race Seven: 4:06 post – OC 100000n2X 1 1/16 Mile 3YO
6-4-7-1
This optional claimer turned out to be a salty little affair. #4 Fort Peck likes CD and has some impressive company in his running lines. This gelding might be in the best current form of all of them, but I am going to play against him. #7 Noble Commander had a pretty rough trip for Mark Casse in his October 10 return to racing after a six month lay-off. I expect much better from him today and a win would not surprise me in the slightest. #1 Chief Oakie Dokie is an improving horse and I believe he is shipping in with a purpose. He hasn’t faced the same quality of fields at Arlington and he has been changing surfaces a bit, but I expect a nice run from him today. #6 Snapper Sinclair returned to the track on October 17th at Keeneland on the turf for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana Jr. He was off for seven months, so I really didn’t expect much that day. That said, Asmussen likes to use a turf return for some of his stronger main track runners as he hits at 20% with that angle. Snapper is my play.
Race Eight: 4:36 post – MSW 76K 6F 2YO Fillies
11-5-8-6
Another wide open 2YO MSW has me scratching my head. With four first time starters, this race doesn’t look to have a lot of talent entered. I am going to play against #6 Motion Emotion as she is surely going to take a lot of money and has a lot of questions. I just don’t like her wheeling back so quickly. Two firt time starters have my interest: #5 Princess Z Ohsix looks the part for Ingrid Mason as she has been working extremely well in the morning, and #8 Kid Sis is definitely a bonus baby purchase that has been running well as well. Both of these could win this race. That said #11 Miss Imperial makes the most sense. She has been off for five months, but looks to be making a sneaky return for Steve Asmussen today. Her works have been solid, but the 10/20/18 gate work is sneaky good. I expect a good outside trip for Ricardo Santana Jr. today.
Race Nine: 5:06 post – Allowance 78500n1x 5 ½ F Turf 3YO&Up
9-5-12-1
To me, this looks like a complete match race between #5 Ultima D and #9 Focused. I suppose I could be talked into #1 Trace a little bit. I don’t like Morales jumping off, but her two turf efforts show promise. #12 Even Beat is on the AE list, but I would love for her to draw in. I might even prefer Even Beat over Focused in this spot if I was guaranteed she ran. Her 11/3 morning work is a doozy. That said, I’ll take Focused to run them down today.
Race Ten: 5:36 post – Claiming 5000 1 Mile 3&Up F&M
1-2-5-8
The closing race looks to belong to #1 I Am Miss Brown and I don’t think I can beat her. I don’t like to swallow chalk, but I will here. I would actually single her in horizontal plays. She always runs in the money, she is dropping in class a bit, and she is in good form. I am a bit concerned that she is changing surfaces again, but I don’t think it will matter.