There are three more Fridays left in the Churchill Downs fall meet, including today’s 10 race card. Like many of the cards of late, the first few races feature shorter fields and the larger fields are slotted on the back end of the card.
Race 1: $50,000 Claiming, F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 5-4-3
There are only five are slated to go in the opener, but there are two that seem to be intent of going to the front, possibly setting up a speed duel. The race should set up perfectly for Nomizar (5), who got the perfect set up last out with lesser. She moves up in class, but still faces claimers, so I think she fits well among these. Her outside draw should only help her. Lady Of Luxury (4) was overmatched here when facing a stronger field in September. She ran extremely well at Indiana Grand in the mud two starts back and she has won at the track and distance in the past. She too figures to take advantage of a potential speed duel. Black Kettle (3) is one half of the two speedballs in here (A Thousand Reasons – 1, being the other). She’s been away since July, and is moving up in class. She has been improving though and I think she’ll be able to hang on for a piece.
Race 2: $20,000 NW2L Claiming, 1 Mile: My Picks: 2-5-3
Six horses are entered, and the two most logical horses are taking significant drops in class. And Seek (3) has the best early foot here, and I’m not sure anyone can go with him early. However, he’s set slow paces before, and has still failed to hold on to the lead. Comedian (5) also drops and does start rolling late, but he usually finds himself coming up short. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either one win, but And Seek is only 1-20 and Comedian is only 1-19, which is a great recipe for short priced horses. Of the four others, I’m willing to take a shot with Classified Info (2), making his second start off the layoff for Ian Wilkes. He was a beaten third at this level while sprinting at Keeneland last time out. He makes his second start since January, and stretches out to a flat mile, which should be a good distance for him. His speed figures definitely need to rise, but he does get a significant weight break over these (10-13), as triple bug apprentice, Andrea Rodriguez looks to win her first ever career race as a professional jockey.
Race 3: $15,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile: My Picks: 7-8-2
There’s a field of eight assembled for this lower level maiden claiming race, where the only guarantee is that one horse will emerge from the race as the winner. Make’n Tracks (7) makes the most sense to me as he drops after finishing fourth in a stronger maiden claiming race at Keeneland. I think cutting back to the flat, one-turn mile, will be a plus for him. Big Biz (8) has failed to win in ten career tries, but he was close at this level at Keeneland last out, despite some trouble in the stretch late. Three of his last four tries have been competitive. Trumpin On (2) debuted at this level in a sprint at Keeneland last month. He showed some speed before fading to last place that day. He could improve some in start number two, while also stretching out in distance, and that might be enough to hit the board here.
Race 4: $50,000 Claiming, NW3L or 3yoF, F/M 1 Mile: My Picks: 5-1-3
There’s a lot of horses switching surfaces here, which complicates the handicapping picture. Mike Maker seems to be holding the upper hand here with his two fillies, Elusive Molly (1) and Tonal Vision (5). Of the two, I prefer Tonal Vision, who is perfect at the distance, and now moves up in class. Her dirt form is consistent, and when she runs at a competitive level, she is usually right in the mix. Elusive Molly goes turf to dirt after two okay tries at Indiana Grand. She drops in class, and seems to run well at the flat, one-turn mile distance, finishing 1st and 3rd in her two tries at Gulfstream. Spun Eazy (3) was a runaway winner at open 40K claiming here two weeks ago. She’s the only horse in here with three wins, which is an angle I like to play when handicapping these multiple conditioned races. I think she’ll be a factor, but there will need to be value on her, for me to play her on top.
Race 5: $15,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile: My Picks: 2-6-9.
This is the second division of the maiden claiming race from earlier on the card (Race 3) and the fourth straight race carded at 1 Mile on the main track. I’ll try Schochoh (2) who ran a competitive race against similar at Indiana Grand in his debut. He moved up in class here on Opening Day here, and faltered late. I think his pedigree (By Aikenite) suggests that a flat mile will suit him, and return to a lower class level will also be a plus. Samson Lee (6) showed speed and faded at this level in his debut at this level at Keeneland last month. Drury has positive numbers with horses stretching out and making their second career starts. Ghost Fighter (9) takes a significant drop for his fifth career try, which is never a good sign for a horse that cost their owners $500,000. He hasn’t been competitive with better, but probably fits better here. I wouldn’t rush to take a short price on him though.
Race 6: $62,500 Opt. Claiming/NW2X Allowance, F/M, 5 and ½ Furlongs, Turf: My Picks: 1-8-2
Many of these are exiting a common race at Keeneland (10/15, Race 6). That race was won by a 47-1 longshot that carried her speed on the front end that day. There doesn’t seem to be as speed in this race today, so I think that gives the advantage to Jeannie’s Beepbeep (1). She ships in from Indiana Grand, racing for the first time since being claimed by Mike Maker. She’s been caught late in each of her last four tries, but I don’t think she’ll have to go 21:1 in the first quarter mile here like she did last out. Dance Rhythms (8) is the one I’ll bet back off that Keeneland race. She had to wait to get a seam to run through, and she was trying hard once she did. The outside draw helps her, but the potential for slower pace scenario is not ideal. Luvin Bullies (2) hopes to be able to get back on the grass after having her first two starts of the year taken off the lawn. Her form in 5 and 5 and ½ Furlong turf races last year was good for this level, and she outran her long odds in stakes races here and at Keeneland. She, too, would benefit from a stronger early pace.
Race 7: $30,000 Maiden Claiming, 2yo, 1 Mile and 1/16, My Picks: 5-2-6
Ten maiden two year olds here, all with at least one race on their resume. If Back Ring Luck (6) is able to run back to his most recent race at Keeneland, at the same level, it’s hard to envision one of the other nine stepping up to beat him. He should be able to make the lead, and play catch me if you can. There may be some price possibilities underneath, it what looks like a wide open battle for the minor prizes. I’ll try Kick Some Tale (2) with the inside draw here. He’s been a big longshot in both starts with better. He drops another level and should benefit from a two turn race after getting two sprint races as a foundation. Western Pharoah (6) showed nothing in his debut, despite taking some money. He retuned against lesser here last month, and got into second after a tough break. He could move forward off that effort while getting extra distance.
Race 8: $30,000 NW2L Claiming, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 4-8-6
This is a wide open race, where I’d want to have a lot of coverage. Red Pepper Grill (4) debuted a winner in Virginia Bred Maiden Special Weight company at Colonial on the main track. She was a dull fourth on the grass against allowance foes at Indiana Grand in her second start. She drops for a tag for the first time, and could be a threat if she can build off her debut. Lichita (8) blew away a maiden special weight field at Belterra two starts back. The second and third place finishers of that race, broke their maidens in their next start. She was a troubled trip 4th at Indiana Grand with allowance foes in her subsequent start. Despite the trouble she finished with some interest, indicating that she had more run than the PP line shows. Sheshappy (6) exits a maiden claiming win at Keeneland in her most recent start. She showed that she can rate that day, which should help her here as there are a few speed and fade types that she’s up against.
Race 9: $80,000 Optional Claiming/NW3X Allowance, 1 Mile and 1/16, Turf, My Picks: 6-3-11-8
The feature today is a super tough race, which features stakes winners and graded stakes placed horses on the grass. The distance further complicates things, as some are better at longer distances, and some might prefer a tad shorter. Louder Than Bombs (6) has three sneaky good turf races as a four year old at Gulfstream. He ships to Churchill and finds a pretty salty field, despite dropping from stakes company. He’s versatile enough to run from behind, rate, or set the pace. I think he’s got a shot here. Spirit Animal (3) has the most current upside of any of these, as he exits an open length win at Belmont, against NW2X foes. He’s gotten better with each start and should handle the rise in class. He has enough tactical speed to likely be able to carve out a solid trip. Ramsey Solution (11) is a major player if he draws in to the body of this field. He had a wide trip on both turns last out, which may be a factor for him again from his outside draw. He beat a restricted stakes field at Kentucky Downs two back in impressive fashion. Marzo (8) didn’t run a lick in the Sword Dancer last time out on soft ground, but he has been running competitive figures in graded stakes fields in his last several times. He last ran at this level here last year, and was a close up third. I think he prefers a bit longer, but he’s a player here on class alone.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 11-8-4
This is a decent maiden special weight race to close the day. I think Rockstar Ro (11) is very live here after a decent third at Keeneland last out. He was game in his first two tries on the turf, then ran well, despite a very wide journey last time. He breaks from the outside again, but the addition of blinkers should help him be a little more tactical early on, in hopes of securing better early position. Gagetown (8) debuts for the red hot Brad Cox barn. His works are solid and being by Exaggerator, there’s definitely precocity in his pedigree. Divinium (4) is probably the best of the speed horses in here. He debuted at 6 and ½ Furlongs at Keeneland last out. The cutback and experience should help him here.