Churchill Downs Friday November 9, 2018
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves hot yoga, pot roast, sarcasm, and staring contests. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:00 post – MC 15K 1 Mile 2YO Fillies
5-3-2-10
A maiden claimer with nine of the eleven entrants moving down the ladder, I guess we have to pick the horse with the greatest upside. #3 A.P. Princess looks like she has been improving for each start for Mark Casse. She could certainly win, but I’ll look to beat her. #2 Annagram is changing surfaces for Eddie Kenneally and her 10/10 work from the gate on the Churchill track hints that she may actually like the main track better than the sod. #10 Kelly’s Agenda is sure to be backed for Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez stays in the irons for the fourth consecutive race. I really want #5 Hush Y’all in this spot. She absolutely didn’t run a step in her first race at Keeneland on 10/19, but she had been working like a demon since the beginning of August for Brad Cox. I am going to draw a line through her first race as Florent Geroux stays aboard. I’m not gonna lie, this huge class drop worries me a bit as Cox may be trying to sell her… then again, he may be trying to get her some confidence as her pedigree suggests that she may not be a great broodmare.
Race Two: 1:30 post – Claiming 16000 6 ½ F 3YO&Up
1-2-6-3
A short field of six entrants doesn’t seem to offer much value. #3 Inheritthewind is trying the dirt for the second time in his career after winning his last race a little lower on the claiming ladder. He may have found some success last out, but he also seems a little over his head in this affair. #6 Zip ‘n Sip makes a ton of sense in this spot for Paul Holthus and Brian Hernandez. He too has been banging around at this level with some recent success, but two others in this field may be too much for this Indiana Grand shipper. #2 Riff Raff is moving back up the ladder after two recent steps down. He certainly has been popular at the claiming box for some pretty accomplished trainers, but he has missed the money in his last two efforts. Riff Raff ran some serious races earlier this year at Saratoga and I expect a return to the same at this level for Randy Morse. #1 Bordini hasn’t raced in a couple of months, but Tom Amoss places his runners in great spots. This hard-knocking six-year-old gelding has easily been the most consistent runner in this race, but you have to forgive him for his last effort to have him on top here, especially as the ML favorite. He probably isn’t the best bet for value, but Amoss hasn’t gotten him back to the same form he had before he claimed him for 40K on 4/20. The last two works suggest Amoss has him ready to roll today.
Race Three: 2:00 post – MC 50000 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
8-7-3-2
#7 Believeinholidays is the ML favorite in this short field of maiden claimers, and an equal effort of his last effort at this level is probably good enough to win, but I will look elsewhere. #3 Gambit is entered in the claiming ranks for the first time for Rusty Arnold and Brian Hernandez. He is a first time gelding since his last effort on 10/18 and could greatly improve. #2 Applewood has been given a little bit of freshening since his last race on 9/23 here at Churchill. A trainer change and five workouts point to a good return. #8 Destiny Awaits is making his second start for Steve Asmussen since being transferred from the Baffert barn. He raced on 9/22 in a super flat effort here at Churchill off of nine-month layoff, but he has every right to improve back to 2YO form in the second start back. Asmussen has worked him plenty since acquiring the colt and he has entered him honestly in this claiming spot. Gaffalione gets a leg here, which concerns me a bit as Santana Jr, is Asmussen’s go to jockey.
Race Four: 2:30 post – Claiming 50000n2L 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
5-1-3-2
#1 Curlins Pride is making a gelded return from a fifteen month break from the races for Conor Murphy. Though he might have the best figures of the bunch, I’m going to let him beat me in his return as there are far too many questions. Kenny McPeek is wheeling #2 Courage and Honor back after breaking his maiden here at Churchill on Halloween. This will be the second dirt start for this colt and, if he has found a new home on the main track, he could certainly threaten. I am not excited about short rest after a career-best effort. #3 Lngtermrelationshp has ran a pair of in-the-money races here at Churchill that are likely good enough to win should he repeat the effort. Joe Rocco stays up and the 11/2 workout on the main track signals he is ready. #5 Valycove is the ML favorite and I am unfortunately stuck with him. Ian Wilkes has improved this colt since switching to the dirt and Julien Leparoux stays aboard. The others have far too many questions for me as I believe this colt will get just enough pace and close into the win.
Race Five: 3:03 post – MC 15000 1 Mile 2YO
6-7-10-13
I really hope that #13 It’s Game Time draws into the race off of the AE list as the class relief and first-time Lasix should be good enough to improve this colt to a win at this level. #10 Betwithbothhands makes perfect sense as the ML favorite, but he is changing surfaces again for Michael Maker and Tyler Gaffalione. He flattened out in the stretch running on the sod last time out and could easily improve at this low-level claimer, but I can’t take a short price at this level. #7 Triple Double Zero has worked three times since a very flat debut for Steve Asmussen. Santana gets aboard for this first time signaling hope. #6 Its Yes has finished third in both of his career starts for Brad Cox. Last raced on 9/22, Cox has put five works into him and gets Florent Geroux aboard for the first time. Looks like a short-priced winner to me.
Race Six: 3:36 post – Alw 50000s 1 1/8 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
8-5-7-9
#9 Gostisbehere hasn’t been the same horse since taking a break after his 6/14 start as Charlie LoPresti looks to have him return to his Churchill winning form. #7 Mr Darcy has been the most consistent horse in this field except for the Kentucky Downs outing on 9/1 where he gave way on the front end. Robby Albarado has gotten him to rate a little better the last two races and I expect the same today. #5 Harlan Selection just missed on 9/22 and had a rough start last out for Michelle Lovell. She has put a couple of good works into him since his last race signaling a good effort today. #8 Jailhouse Kitten has bounced around a bit at the claiming box earlier this year and I love Michael Maker claiming him back after losing him. This Kitten has since lost two minor stakes races against Channel Cat and he should find this field much more to his liking and he has proven he likes Churchill. I prefer the #11 Omen of Change should this get moved to the main track.
Race Seven: 4:06 post – Mdn 76K 1 Mile 2YO
10-4-2-8
A few of these 2YO maidens have flashed a little talent and the #8 Thundershook might normally be good enough to win against a field like this. He has been a consistent sort and has finished in the money four out of six career races. #2 Wilmington showed a great deal of improvement in his second race by flashing a little “speed and fade” against similar. Steve Asmussen has put three solid works into him since the last and I expect a sharper, more fit effort today. #4 Wild Medagliad’oro has easily run the best races of every horse in the race. Mark Casse has another big shot today, but I wonder if this horse just doesn’t want to win. At today’s price, I am willing to bet against. I am taking a shot with first time starter #10 Runnin’ Ray for Joe Sharp and Adam Beschizza. Working in the morning since August 3, Sharp hasn’t rushed him along to enter into a flashier spot and he has put a couple of gate works into the mix. Winning at a 12% clip for first time starters is enough of a nudge for me to take a shot against this batch of 2YOs.
Race Eight: 4:36 post – OC 80000n3x 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
8-1-3-9
#3 Zapperini is sure to fire to the lead and try to steal this race on the front end by walking the dog. Gabriel Saez has won with this tactic before for Greg Foley, so there’s no secret to his game. The problem today is that it looks like the only way #7 Youngest Daughter can win is to use the same tactic. I expect a war of attrition up front even though the #7 is likely not good enough, even with the huge weight break and Edgar Morales. #1 Krampus is the deserving ML favorite and, honestly, our most likely winner, but I can’t swallow odds on in this spot. Surely we can find more value from a longer price horse. #9 My Bariley fits this race like a glove if you are willing to draw a line through the 9/8 effort in the G3 Kentucky Turf Cup. I prefer #8 Baratti to pull a mild upset for John Ortiz and Adam Beschizza. This horse has done amazingly well at slightly lower levels since returning to the turf in April of this year, even winning a smaller stakes race at Indiana Grand on 8/15. For me, the value is too much to pass up considering the pace setup he is likely to get today, though he runs the same style as the favorite Krampus.
Race Nine: 5:06 post – OC 75000n1x 6 ½ F 2YO Fillies
10-9-2-6
To me, this was the most interesting race on today’s card as it features eleven 2YO fillies that have already won. #6 Peruvian Appeal offers the most value after the “big three” in this race, but I honestly believe the winner will come from the top three ML choices. #2 Unholy Alliance, #9 Istan Council, and #10 Carrizo are extremely difficult to separate on paper as the #2 and the #9 have taken turns beating each other in previous races. Carrizo ran a crazy good race here at Churchill Downs on 9/29 and won for fun over next out winner Shesomajestic. I would let the odds board point towards the winner and maybe catch some value with any of the top three, but I believe the winner will be either Istan Council or Carrizo. I’m taking Carrizo for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana Jr.
Race Ten: 5:36 post – Clm 8000b 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
5-1-4-6
This claiming race seems to be wide open as the only horse I really liked was #6 Serious I Candy. I just can’t take a short-priced horse in a low-level claimer coming in off of a six month lay-off. She surely can win this race for owner/trainer Martin Rouck, and I like Edgar Morales legging up with a weight advantage, but he sure is dropping her down the ladder after paying twice the price back in March 2018. Smaller barns don’t normally do this move to get a win. #1 Tiger Lisa has been an improving sort for James Jackson lately and the rail position will only help her causes today. She gets bug-boy Declan Carroll to help with a weight advantage as well. #5 Almafuerte is my lukewarm top choice as she is in the second start for William Stinson since the recent 5,000 claim. I like Jon Court staying up after a mediocre effort on 9/23 here at Churchill Downs as she is his only mount of the day.