CHURCHILL DOWNS
Friday November 29, 2019
Race 1 maiden claiming 15k-20k 6f
Pick: 9-7-1-5
#9 Hoboken has only raced twice and put two strong numbers on paper. Was a little outclassed his first time out at MSW but dropping down to MC 15k seemed to really be his niche just getting out finished last out. I look for him with Corey “KY King” Lanerie to bring him home. #7 Battalstown is due to cross the wire first. While he may not be the best in the race, he should play a factor and will be used in boxes and underneath. #1 Mr. Opportunity is lightly raced and is going to come at a price. He was in way over his head last out but if he can hold a good pace he might just be able to pull an upset.
Race 2 maiden claiming 30k-40k 7f
Pick: 8-6-3-2
Tricky race with a bunch of maidens who have been hitting the board; #2 Subiaco will be a heavy favorite with a big class drop of Rosario piloting but I’m going take a stand against. The lay off and the big class drop just seem like red flags to where I’m going to look for value elsewhere. #8 Between the Hedges seems to be in a good spot with the pace to rate in the middle of the pack and move up down the stretch. Also Martin Garcia has been impressive with his move to KY. #6 Paigely is being conditioned by HoFer Steven Assmussen and there are not many trainers better in the claiming game than him. This horse has been all over the board and look for Santana to finally get her across first. #3 Upgrade Me should be mentioned just because every time I don’t talk about Joe Talamo he beats me so I’m glad he’s moved to KY to continue to terrorize my dreams.
Race 3 maiden claiming 25-30k 6.5f
Pick: 5-6-9-11
Another exciting maiden claiming for the undercard of the Clark. #5 Sunflower Rose looks to have a good shot for Norm Casse. She has broken slow each of her last two races and with a good start she should be able to get a good trip and the win. #6 Big Boss Lady should be in the right spot in this race as far as class is concerned, she had a tough trip last out in a similar race and still managed second. Look for Lanerie to get her to be contending. #9 Green Monster, a big question mark, class suggests she should contend but we will have to see.
Race 4 Claiming 50K 1 1/16 miles
Pick: 3-7-8-1
Finally some horses that have shown us something! #3 My Sixth Sense I’m not going to get cute with this horse. Marker tried his standard, claim and move to turf but this horse is a dirt horse through and through and has competed graded stakes company and placed in Allowance Company. Winning his lost out shows you that if he can set the pace he can get the win. #7 Cairo Cat is running in a similar race as last out where he finished 3rd with a rough trip. You have to love having Rosario aboard and look for this horse to run well and I’d be surprised if he is still running in McPeek’s barn on Saturday. #8 Wicked Indeed, hopefully we get a nice price with him as this colt definitely has the pedigree to be successful. Unfortunately he has struggled in his last to outing at short prices so maybe this class drop can get him right. #1 Moment could have what it takes but the rapid jumps in class will scare me off.
Race 5 SOC 10k 9F
Pick: 3-8-1-5
This race is actually widely competitive. Its just a bunch of horses that have been racing each other for years. #1,1A Frost or Frippery & Overzealous, your classic two for one special, both of these horses are in good form and coming off of strong last outs. Although it looks like one of these will scratch and if it’s the #1 I would be less enthusiastic. #3 Peekacho is having a strong year winning at almost a 50% clip. I think he’ll appreciate the extra distant in this race might make him my top pick. #5 Red Again, another constant in this division and has had some success. I like him at the price and whenever trainer Aaron Shorter and Jock Alex Canchari get together then there is money to be made. #8 Mark My Way, Value play through and through. Mckee knows how to pilot this horse and there success shows don’t be surprised if he gets in the mix late. In this race, I decided chose to ignore the newer horses in this division, hopefully it’s the right choice.
Race 6 Claiming 10k 6.5f
Pick:12-3-6-9
#12 BlackJack Jedi, this horse has some talent and has been all over the board as of late. The only red flag is the fact that has gotten beat at short odds each of the last few times out. #3 Horsefeathers with the class drop after two 2nd place finishes. Watch for this horse to be in the mix. #6 Front Page Asmussen again in the claiming game and it looks like he has the horse placed well to find the board.
Race7 SOC 20k 6f
Pick:9-2-6-8
(Bias Alert: My name is Pat, I can’t not bet on the horse name Pat) #9 Pat Daddy has won his last two starts and will be facing many of the same horses in this race, why should we expect a different result. #2 D Squared is the class of this field and has been running in and out of Allowance Company and winning there as well. This is going to be a race to the front between these two and it might just cause a pace melt down so lets see if we can’t find some closers to pick up the pieces. #6 Griff has the making of maybe being able to play spoiler and making up some ground on some gassed horses.
Race 8 Alw 97k 1 1/16 Miles
Pick:5-3-6-8
This looks to be another race with early speed and a race to the front with horses like #1 Harmony Victory, #2 Mo Wheels and #3 Pink Scatillac. This sets up nicely for horses that can set back and wait to strike like #5 Fun Paddy and #6 Flower House. A long shot that has caught my eye is #8 Data Damsel who looks to at home at this distance but might be simply outclassed to make a difference. If a horse where to take this race wire to wire look at the #1 to make them pay,
Race 9 Mrs. Revere Stakes Gr.2 1 1/16 Miles turf
Picks: 10-12-7-6
So many good fillies in the race it will be tough to find an edge but lets see what we have.
#10 Amandrea, look for her to get up early and dictate a pace to where she can keep these late running turf specialists at bay. I love this horse and she has tons of heart even with horses breathing down her neck she will try to find another gear, she will hit the board. #12 New and Improved a quality closer for Chad Brown, need to know anything else? Price will be to low though. #7 Hard Legacy if this filly can get up early she could also dictate the pace to get the score but if she doesn’t get there early she doesn’t have a chance. Two more horses that need to be mentioned at #6 Winter Sunset and #5 Winning Envelope, the former went for $900,000 at auction and the latter went for $3,000…and people think this game makes sense. Both could potentially close into this pace.
Race 10 AOC 62.5K 1 1/16 Miles
Picks:2-4-3-6
#2 Hawaakom, this horse has been in my stable for a while and while hes had a disappointing year I still think he has a few wins in him at the old age of 9. Unfortunately at this distance and at Churchill he loves placing so if you take him make sure you WP. #4 Scars are Cool, the connections decided to take a shot and try this horse in the midsummer derby and it didn’t necessarily go will. Now he’s back where he belongs for right now in Allowance Company and should not be taken lightly. #6 December Seven will be the pace setter and I doubt hell be able to hold on for the win but maybe get a piece of the board. #3 Troubling Moon would love for #6 to take the lead where he could rate of the 6. If he runs well he can definitely win this but he has been somewhat inconsistent in his short racing carry but if the track stays fast do not count this horse out.
Race 11 Clark Stakes Gr1 9f
Picks:11-2-9-8
*Bruce Buffer Voice* “ARE YOU READY FOR THE MAIN EVENT?” Of course you are! We’ve waited 10 races for the big one, the marquee event of the November meet. And I haven’t even looked at the PPs but I can already tell you I’m leaning Seeking the Soul because he owns CD, but lets take a look. #2 Tom’s d’Etat has a great record as a favorite and looks poised to get his first grade 1. #11 Seeking the Soul, as I mentioned, owns Churchill and only Churchill, WPS is a solid bet. #9 Mr. Freeze, look I hate betting on Robby Albarado, he just doesn’t win but Mr. Freeze is talented as all get out and he might be able to overcome Albarado’s bad luck. #8 Owendale he returns to his best distance and he’s been one of the top 3 years olds this year. Look for him to make an impact today.
Race 12 MSW 95k 6f
Picks: 2-58
#2 Tipazar has ran 9 times and only finished out of the money once. Do you know how hard that is to do and not win a race?! I think it has to be his time. #5 Hoppa is very green but looks to have all the talent in the world and might make Tipazar keep his condition one more time. #8 Quality to Spare looks poised to get a piece of the board at a high price as he has improved despite the jump in class.