Another nine race card here on a Friday at Churchill. They were off the turf yesterday, so track conditions are something to keep an eye on for today.
Race 1
#5 V Tach M. D.
I’m giving this guy another shot. I picked him in my analysis here three weeks ago, and I’m sticking with him one more time. He was claimed out of that race by Angel Montano. He looks to be one of the main speed factors, and he’s got a good post. He broke a touch slow last time, so hopefully he is sharper today and can get the lead or stalk the #4 horse. Adam Beschizza in the irons.
#3 Lemon Again
This gelding is coming off his maiden breaker. That wasn’t a real tough field, but he did win quite impressively. They went fast early, he sat at the back of the pack, and then just blew them away in the stretch. My main issue with him is that he is so inconsistent. It’s either a great effort, or a terrible effort, there is no in between with this guy. His race at the Fair Grounds a couple months ago was decent, probably a similar race shape as today’s race will be. He sat closer to a slow pace and still kick on in the stretch. We’ll see which version of this horse shows up today. Gabriel Saez rides.
Race 2
#3 Bode on Tap
I’m hoping the cutback to one turn helps this one. She showed a little pace last time, and then faded in the stretch. She’s also dropping from that $30,000 race into this $20,000, so that could also be beneficial. There isn’t much speed in here, so I’m hoping she can be sitting second or third in the early going, and then be able to kick on toward the finish. Helen Pitts trains, Tyler Baze rides.
#1 Sheza Handfull
This filly draws the rail, and looks to be the main speed factor, so I’m expecting her to be sent early. I’ll just draw a line through her last race which was on the grass. Her dirt form is a little better, so I think this is her preferred surface. Also, by far her best races so far have been right here at Churchill. Trainer Randy Morse is very cold so far this year, but he’s due to get that turned around. He gets Tyler Gafflione to ride, and they are 2 for 3 together at this meet.
Race 3
#3 Honorable Memory
I really value experience in races like this. And this filly ran okay in her debut. Based on her pedigree, I do think longer distances will be better for her. But if she can take a little step forward off of her debut, I think she’ll have a good chance. She has two nice works following her last race. I think this girl could have a nice late kick just like her father did. Mark Hubley trains and Adam Beschizza rides.
#2 Speed on Tap
This baby is a first time starter for Steve Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds. Her dam was one of the favorite race horses when I first got into this game in 2012. Speedinthruthecity was a very precocious horse, so her offspring could show that same ability. This filly has a really quick gate work a couple weeks ago, and some other nice works as well. Asmussen isn’t known for working his horses fast, so I’m guessing that’s all natural ability by this horse. Ricardo Santana aboard.
Race 4
#2 All the Juice
Not a real good field here…I settled on this girl for a couple reasons. First off, her best races, including her lone win, have been over this course. Secondly, I went with the hot jockey. Miguel Mena has been riding very well at this meet. This filly lacks early foot, so that’s not ideal, but maybe she can wear down the others in the stretch.
#1 Have No Fear
This Mike Maker trained filly is coming off her maiden breaking score. She beat a field of 10, and she did it fairly impressively for the level. Other than her one wet track try, all of her other races have been decent. She draws the rail, and figures to be forwardly placed, so that will help her against this bunch. She has a bullet work in between her last race and this one. Tyler Gafflione in irons.
#7 Wosie
Just a couple things I want to mention about this one. She’s taking a big drop in class. She has a couple of decent races, so I’m not sure how to feel about this drop. They are taking the blinkers off, and she’s drawn perfectly on the outside in here. She’s taking on older horses for the first time, so sometimes that can present new challenges.
Race 5
#6 Enforceable
This is the younger brother to Moyhamen, who was a decent horse in his own right. As I mentioned a couple races ago, I really value experience in these early two year old races. This colt ran pretty well debut here in the slop. He looks to be working well out of that race. Trainer Mark Casse is good with these young horses, so I’m expecting another nice race from this guy today. Shaun Bridgmohan rides, he and Casse hit at 22% together.
#9 Two Dot
This colt is already making career start number four. Honestly, that’s probably a little too much for me at this point. However, he’s run okay thus far. He’s had some interesting trips so far. You see ‘hit gate’ and ‘hit rail’ in the comment lines. He did make up a lot of ground in his last start. Corey Lanerie has ridden this horse in all of his starts so far, so he’s getting very familiar with him. John Hancock trains.
#2 Rowdy Yates
Of the first time starters in here, this would probably be the one I prefer. It’s Asmussen and Santana, so that’s a winning combo. And this horse has a couple nice gate works on the tab. He’s by Morning Line and out of a Yes It’s True mare, so there is some decent early pedigree there. He’s an Oklahoma bred, so that’s a little unique to see running here at Churchill.
Race 6
#1 Folly
She exits a race that had a very slow early pace, yet I still think she ran credibly. I think there is going to be a little more pace in the early going today, so that should set things up better for her. She’s run two good races since being moved to the barn of David Fawkes. Having drawn the rail, she should be able to save some ground. She does look a little lite on speed figures compared to a couple others in here, but I’m still willing to give her a shot. Ricardo Santana gets aboard for the first time.
#4 Amandrea
This filly is most likely the horse to beat. She’s only eligible for this race because of her debut last fall, which was a dirt sprint maiden claimer. She’s been much improved on the grass, and if she fires her best effort, she’ll be tough. She went wire to wire last time, but she’s not a need the lead type. So whatever the race shapes ends up being, I think she’ll be able to adapt. She’s a Zayat homebred, trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Tyler Gafflione.
#5 Ginny B
She’s exiting the same last race as my top pick is. This filly is pretty consistent, the issue is that usually just leads to minor awards for her. Trainer Steve Margolis is removing the blinkers today, and he is 4 for his last 7 with that move; very successful. I still think this horse is probably suited for a minor placing, but I’m interested to see what the removal of blinkers does for her.
Race 7
#2 Sterling Miss
This girl has been off for a couple months, having not been seen since March at the Fair Grounds. Trainer Tom Amoss has great numbers across the board, so the layoff isn’t much of a concern for me. She’s already won at this 2nd level allowance condition before, so I think she fits here. Her lone race at Churchill last fall was a nice effort, so we know she likes the track. Corey Lanerie rides her today.
#6 Headland
She looks to have a large advantage with her speed in this race. She is by far the quickest one in here, but she hasn’t quite faced this caliber of competition before. She’s also facing older horses for the first time, which can be tough. She draws outside which is perfect in this small field. She’s won 5 in a row overall, and all 5 have been at this 6F distance. She’s trained by Steve Hobby and will be ridden by Tyler Baze.
#4 Embolded
Look, if this girl brings her A race, she is the most likely winner. She’s a stakes winner, and she’s been facing G1 competition. Baffert is taking the blinkers off, which is a great move for him (about 41%). Somewhat unusually for a Baffert trainee, she doesn’t posses blazing early speed, so she’ll be coming from behind. I thought she might be worth taking a shot against at a short price; but don’t completely leave her off your tickets. Florent Geroux in the saddle.
Race 8
#3 Bourbon Calling
This gelding is facing winners for the first time, but his last race was fairly impressive. He likes this track, so that’s a bonus. This 6F distance may be a tad short than his best, but I think there is sufficient speed in here to help his closing kick. Julien Leparoux is red hot right now, another plus. He’s drawn well, and he might be a decent price.
#5 Coltonator
I think this 20-1 shot has a chance to hit the board here. He’s been off since February, but he’s run alright fresh before. He’s lite on speed figs compared to others in here, but he’s got a hot trainer and jockey at the moment. Foley is winning at 25% this meet, and Miguel Mena is at 20%. I think he’ll sit a good stalking trip. I know he didn’t run that well in his last race, I think that was a legit field.
#2 Who’s in Charge
This colt broke his maiden on debut at Gulfstream back in February at odds of 24-1. That’s been his one and only start to this point. But I like the fact they bring him here for this spot. This allowance race has a very large purse, so I see it as a sign of confidence that they’re running him in here. He could be the speed of the speed in this race. Trained by Armando de la Cerda, and will be ridden by Tyler Gafflione.
Race 9
#1 Bella Bella
We haven’t seen this girl in close to a year, but in a small sample size trainer Grant Forster is 2 for 8 off the long layoff. She’s been protected (from being claimed) in most of her races. The only two times she’s been in for a tag, she’s won, and both wins are here at Churchill. I don’t see any real strong front runners in this race, so I’m thinking this mare can mow them all down in the stretch. Miguel Mena rides.
#9 Khairiya
This is mostly a trainer angle. Mike Maker claimed her two back, and she won an off the turf event at Indiana last time out. But if there’s a guy that can get a horse to run long on the grass, it’s Maker. This filly has great breeding for the grass, and for the distance. She’s got speed, so I don’t think the outside post is an issue. She might be able to clear this field and get over going into the first turn. One of Mike’s main riders Tyler Gafflione is in the irons.
#7 Gianna’s Gift
I’m just throwing this one in there because of her potential pace factor. If she someone finds herself loose on the lead, I think she could be dangerous. This isn’t a great field, so maybe she could get brave on the front end. Tyler Baze is known as a decent gate/early pace rider.