This is one of the most exciting times of the year for horse racing fans. We are right on the doorstep of the Kentucky Derby, and we’ve got a really nice card today anchored by the Kentucky Oaks. Lots of horse with bright futures, and many we will probably be hearing from all summer long.
Unfortunately, again, there is some wet weather in the forecast. Hopefully today it is moved out of the area by midday. Because of the questionable weather and length of today’s card, my analysis begins with the first stakes race. The 8 Belles, race 5, and continues through the rest of the card, which is race 13.
Hopefully we can add to our bankrolls on the eve of the Derby.
Race 5
The Eight Belles
#4 Break Even
This filly looks special for trainer Brad Cox.
She has coasted to victory in all 3 of her career starts so far. She has shown effortless speed early on; as typical, there is other speed in here, but I don’t really think this girl absolutely needs the lead. She was won on both fast and sloppy tracks, so weather shouldn’t affect her. Until I see this girl lose, I’m not willing to bet against her. Shaun Bridgmohan rides.
#3 Queen of Beas
As I mentioned above, this race does look to have a decent amount of pace. So that could set things up well for this filly. She looks to be the most talented closer of the group. She had a very nice winter down at Gulfstream for trainer Jorge Abreu. She hasn’t raced since January, so fitness is a slight concern for me. Abreu is 14% off the layoff, so that’s solid; and Jose Ortiz sticks. He rode her all three times in Florida.
#7 Lyrical Lady
Another major pace player in here. She won last out going 6F at Oaklawn. She dominated that race right from the break. She was also very impressive breaking her maiden at first asking last summer at Saratoga. She beat a ten horse field by over five lengths. She’s always been well meant, she was a $625,000 purchase for owners Phoenix Thoroughbreds. Steve Asmussen trains, Ricardo Santana rides.
Race 6
The Edgewood
#1 Newspaperofrecord
She’s a monster. Irad Ortiz just has to steer her in the right direction and then to the winners circle. Should be that simple.
I do also want to quickly mention #5 Concrete Rose. I’ve been on the bandwagon since her maiden win at Saratoga last summer. And I do think she’s talented, and will run well. Good enough to beat the big dog in here? Probably not.
Race 7
The Alysheba
#10 Silver Dust
I acknowledge that McKinzie is the horse to beat, but I’ll take a little shot with Silver Dust in here. He ran some credible races at the Fair Grounds over the winter, and now he returns to one of his favorite tracks. In four career Churchill tries, he’s got 2 wins and 2 thirds. He’s also finished in the exacta in five out of nine attempts at today’s distance. He’s got some tactical speed, so hopefully even with the outside post today, he can get a decent position going into the first turn. Trainer Bret Calhoun is a very solid trainer and is having a nice year. Jack Gilligan has the mount today, and he has ridden this guy three times recently; two wins and a second.
#1 McKinzie
Probably the horse to beat. Top notch connections, Pegram and Watson own, Baffert trains, Mike Smith rides. This horse has finished in the exacta in eight out of nine lifetime races. He usually always shows up with a big effort, no matter the track, no matter the distance. He draws the rail here, but he’s a horse that doesn’t need the lead, so he might be able to tuck into a nice position in the early going. This horse was actually quite the bargain. He was purchased for just $170,000, and he’s earned over 1.2 million; and he’ll most likely add to that total today.
I want to quick mention a couple others in here. The #2 Tom’s d’Etat has the talent to compete with these, but I really think he prefers a fast main track. So you’ll need to keep an eye on the skies for this guy.
And I also want to mention #6 Instilled Regard. I think he’s a talented horse. He completed the superfecta in the Derby last year, and way back in the day he was within a head of McKinzie in the Los Al Futurity. Gets back to dirt today, and is second off the layoff for Chad Brown.
Race 8
The La Troienne
#2 Blue Prize
This is a classy mare. Earner of just over a million dollars in her career. She’s hit the board in 15 of her 17 lifetime starts. Ultra consistent. She also loves Churchill Downs, five of six in the exacta. She ran very respectable in the Breeders Cup Distaff here last November. She finished fourth, but beaten less than two lengths by the likes of Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou. I do have a slight concern about the layoff here. It’s been six months now, and her trainer Ignacio Correas is 0 for his last 16 off the bench. She does look to be training well, so I’m hoping for a nice race from her. Joe Bravo rides.
#1 She’s a Julie
Her 4YO debut was a nice return to the races for her. She won the G3 Bayakoa at Oaklawn. She looks to be a pace factor in this race, and she’s draws inside. She doesn’t need the lead, so I don’t think their hand is forced. Hopefully she can break clean and get a good spot. She’s also proven to be a fan of Churchill, with 2 wins and a second in 4 races. Steve Asmussen is the trainer, his main rider Ricardo Santana has the mount.
I would just like to also mention #5 Mopotism in this race. I really thought she’d run better last time out. They do add blinkers and get Flavien Prat to ride, so those could be two benefits. I wouldn’t necessarily expect her to win, but she could hit the board at a decent number. She does like this distance as well.
Race 9
#2 Rugbyman
Admittedly, this is another horse that I chased quite a few times last year. Probably unfortunately, I’m taking the bait here again. I do think this guy is talented. He’s making his first start as a 4YO, and possibly more importantly, he’s been gelded. He did have some behavior issues and relaxing issues during some of his races last year. So hopefully some of those things has been corrected. Trainer Graham Motion is about 15% of the layoff. Jose Ortiz has ridden him multiple times before, and knows the horse, so that could help. This horse did run a big race in the slop before, so if it does rain, that shouldn’t affect him too much. He will have to overcome the inside post position, which could be an issue especially if he doesn’t break well. 6-1 on the ML is borderline for me, I wouldn’t want much less than that.
#5 Knights Key
This guy is a stone cold closer. I think there will be enough pace in here to help his closing style. I think he also likes some moisture in the track. Some of his best efforts have come in the slop. Something else to consider is that he is in for the $62,500 tag because he has already beaten this condition. So he’s already proven he can compete with these types. He has a lot of layoff lines in his pp’s, so he’s definitely had some issues, but if he can duplicate his last performance from Oaklawn, he could definitely have a say in the outcome today. This is a full field, so he’s going to need some racing luck when trying to navigate from the back of the pack. Ricardo Santana rides for trainer Ron Moquett.
I also just want to quick mention #10 Gray Sky. He is definitely worth using as an underneath horse. He doesn’t love to win, but he does hit the board quite often. And he’s definitely worth an upgrade if the track is sloppy.
Race 10
The Turf Sprint
#8 Undrafted
I’ll take a shot with this old guy. The 9YO gelding will be making career start number 40. He hasn’t raced since November, but he LOVES this turf course. In the exact in all five starts. He’s won on both firm and yielding ground, so course conditions shouldn’t be an issue for him. He’ll be way at the back, and make a big run in the stretch. If the main contenders get into a pace duel, it could really setup for this guy.
Obviously I will be using the big two in here. #6 World of Trouble, and also #1 Bound for Nowhere. I’ll also give a little look to the outside horse #9 Will Call. He’s the defending champion of this race, but he really prefers firm turf. So the weather will be important for him.
Race 11
The Kentucky Oaks
#14 Restless Rider
I’m shaking my head as I make this selection. I have bet her in six of her seven career races, so unfortunately I feel somewhat married to her. My brain doesn’t love her in this race, especially with this post position. However, I do feel that she’s talented and tactical, so maybe she can overcome the outside start. So I’m not gonna jump off the bandwagon just yet. Her last race in the Ashland was a little dull, but that was her first start since the Breeders Cup, so she could move forward off of that performance.
#3 Lady Apple
I really like this filly. And she’ll be included on all my tickets. She really seems to be coming into her own at the right time. She’s 3 for 3 this year. She’s shown awesome versatility, winning short and long, and from on the lead or even coming from off the pace. She could keep improving as the distances get longer, so this mile and an eighth shouldn’t be an issue. She draws great in here. She should get decent trip, and has a great chance of hitting the board, or even winning. If she goes off anywhere near her morning line of 20-1, use her in everything. Ricardo rides for Asmussen.
Just a few more comments on this race. The likely favorite #4 Bellafina is always a horse I’ve tried to beat, and based on her record, you can see that’s been a bad idea most of the time. But today is no different, I will try to beat her again.
There seems to be a lot of speed signed on, and almost all of these fillies are trying this distance for the first time. So identifying a good closer could be beneficial. I think #10 Champagne Anyone could be one of those horses that is finishing best at the end.
But for the most part, I’m using Restless Rider and Lady Apple.
Race 12
#3 High Regard
This filly comes off a pretty nice effort against similar company at Keeneland last time out. She draws much better today, and should be able to get a ground saving trip. She doesn’t have much early speed, but I do think she is the class of this race. She’s faced some decent runners in the past including Champagne Anyone, Mother Mother, and Restless Rider. Some of her best races have been here at Churchill, including her lone win. Javier Castellano rode her the past two times and he’s back on today, so that’s a positive sign also.
#5 Goodbye Earl
Maybe owner Carl F Pollard is a fan of the country music band the Dixie Chicks? They had a popular song by this name many years ago.
Anyway, on to the equine athlete here. I’m interested in seeing this girl stretch out to a route distance again. Her best race (and only win) was going a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn Park. For some reason, her other three races have been sprints; and she’s just shown an even one paced running style in those. I would expect her to be forwardly placed today. Chris Landeros rides for trainer David Vance.
#8 Cosmic Code
This filly by Into Mischief is also a major player in here. Almost all of her races have been good efforts. I’m willing to chalk up her last race as possibly being a little to difficult in the G3 Fantasy Stakes. She’s back in more reasonable company here. My main issue for her is her tendency to finish second. She’s done that 4 times in 6 lifetime starts. She does have top notch connections are her side. Juddmonte homebred trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux.
Race 13
#4 Hallawallah
First time starter here for this daughter of Candy Ride. Trainer Steve Asmussen hits at about 23% with debuters. I really like the gate work back on April 16th. A bullet 5F drill out of the gate. Asmussen is known to tighten the screws on the second to final workout before a race. So that work tells me she’s ready to roll. She’s got Elusive Quality on the bottom side of the pedigree, so that also infuses more speed. So I expect her to be quick. Ricardo Santana rides.
#8 Vomba
This filly has been absent since last November. She raced two times last year and showed some pace in each of those races. Al stall is only about 9% off the layoff, so that isn’t great. I think her experience could help though, because there is a number of first time starters in this race. Her speed could also be dangerous, especially if the track is sloppy. Jose Ortiz rides.
#6 Luckycall
I’ll give this first timer a little look also. She’s by the young sire Itsmyluckyday. She looks to be working pretty well. I usually don’t expect Dallas Stewart horses to show a ton of speed, so I would probably expect her to do her best running late in the race; and maybe she can hit the board at a decent price. James Graham in the saddle.