Big weekend of holiday racing is upon us. Let’s see if we can pick some winners and build the bankroll heading into the three day weekend. The weather conditions look pretty good for today, so that shouldn’t play a factor.
Good luck!
Race 1
#1 Foxy Mischief
I really like the improvement this girl showed last time out for her new trainer John Ortiz. She sat at the pack of the back that day, and finished strong in the stretch. Ricardo Santana guided her to victory that day, and he’s back aboard today. She has a really nice workout coming in to this, and I think she might take another step forward today. If she does, she may got a good chance. I also like the inside draw for her; she should be able to stay tucked in save ground during the early part of the race.
#6 Lucy’s Town
This mare is in sharp form right now. She’s won three in a row, and four of nine overall, so she likes to win. She’s another one in here though that will need some pace in front of her because she prefers to rally from behind. She got a good setup at Keeneland last time against slightly weaker competition. But she’s so consistent that I’m definitely giving her a look in this spot. Admittedly, I’m not very familiar with the trainer Marshall Godsey, but he’s 9 for 34 this year, which is about 26%. So that’s very solid. Brian Hernandez Jr in the irons today.
#4 Game Time Decision
She’s coming in off a 3 month break here. Last seen finishing 7th in a field in a 8 at Oaklawn Park. However, that was a much more difficult field than this one here today. So this is a pretty significant drop in class. She’s had success here at Churchill in the past, and she’s hit the board in 8 of 11 fast main track races. She does a little tactical ability, so that could be to her advantage. Trainer Chris Hartman is about 17% off the layoff, and he’s having a nice meet so far. This horse has some good works on the tab, specifically her last two which were here at Churchill. Stewart Elliot aboard.
Race 2
#7 Billy Batts
I’m going to take a little shot against the two Wesley Ward runners in here, and yes, I acknowledge this is probably not the smartest decision. But Peter Miller is also very good with 2YO (21%), and he’s great at turf sprints (28%). This horse has a nice turf pedigree being by City Zip out of a Giants Causeway mare. He has some good gate works recently out at San Luis Rey in California. My slight concerns are that Miller is off to a slow start here at Churchill, and so is jockey David Cohen. But assuming this horse is ready to fire, I think he has a legit chance.
#3 Stunning Munnings
Here is one of the Wesley Ward participants. And not unusually for Ward, this is a filly taking on the boys, but by no means is that a disadvantage. It does appear that she missed some training in April, so that could be a slight issue. Nevertheless, she has a good win early/turf pedigree, so I expect her to be a major factor. Tyler Baze in the saddle.
#10 Apple Empire
This guy is one of the few that has racing experience in here. He finished third in a dirt race at Keeneland last month. Sometimes experience can be a major advantage in these types of races. Although, I think he catches a pretty tough group of first time starters today. But you never know what can happen in races like these. Florent Geroux rides.
Race 3
#1 Cosmic Burst
This filly is quite consistent. She’s finished in the money in 9 of 10 fast main track tries. She’s also been quite effective at this distance. She’s faced some pretty good runners in the past, including Wonder Gadot, and She’s a Julie. She exits a sprint race at Oaklawn, that was just used as a starting point for the year. I expect her to improve off of that in this race. Trainer Donnie Von Hemel is only 6% with second off the layoff types, so that’s a little low, and a slight concern. She draws the rail today, so she should be able to save some ground. She’s also got some tactical speed, so she might be able to lay close to the pace. Richard Eramia in the saddle.
#7 Skeptic
A lot of what I said for the horse above, applies to this filly also. She’s second off the layoff here, she faced some solid three olds last year, and she’s effective at this distance. Her trainer Rusty Arnold is very strong with second off the layoff horses, hitting at a robust 27%. This horse also has two solid works after her last race, so she might be ready to take another step forward here. She’s another one in here that looks to be able to be near the pace today. Brian Hernandez Jr who’s been aboard for the vast majority of this girl’s races, is back today. He and Arnold hit at 28% when they team up at Churchill.
#4 Red Dane
This mare exits the same race as the #7 in here. I think overall that was a pretty strong race. The winner of that race came back to win a G3 at Pimlico last weekend. If the pace gets a little quick today, I like this one’s chances to come from behind. She’s also coming second off a layoff, so I’m expecting another step forward for her today. Charlie Lopresti trains, Tyler Gafflione rides.
Race 4
#2 Kentucky Dan
First off the claim here for trainer Danny Pish, which is a decent angle, he connects about 16% of the time. I like that he is removing the blinkers, I think that may have had a negative affect on the horse during his last race. He has a nice workout leading into today. So I’m willing to give this colt another try around two turns. He is out of the awesome mare Silverbulletday. He draws inside, and he does have some positional speed, so I’m hoping he can sit just behind the first flight of runners. Jockey Edgar Morales rides.
#1 High Beam
It does concern me that this guy is a 5YO and still a maiden, however, he has been facing much tougher competition than these that he faces today. His last race came back in October, and that was a drop into $40,000. He sat near honest fractions and faded to he fourth. He takes another little drop in class today. Speed figure wise this guy kind of stands out. If he’s able to duplicate some of his previous efforts he could be tough. Calvin Borel has ridden him four times before, so he’s familiar with this horse. Borel is known more as a come from behind type of rider, so it will be interesting to see the tactics employed today.
#6 Replete
This 3YO is taking on older horses for the first time. He’s also taking another drop in class. Last race they dropped him from maiden special weight to maiden 50,000, but that wasn’t quite enough. So today they drop to 30,000. He has a super fast bullet work on the tab last week. And this will be his second start with blinkers, and that’s an angle I pay attention to. Sometimes it takes a race for a horse to get adapted to that sort of equipment change. Jack Gilligan rides for trainer Dallas Stewart.
Race 5
#2 Caliente Candy
This miss comes in off back to back wins, both at Oaklawn Park. All five of her dirt races have been respectable. Getting to dirt seems to have livened this girl up. 7F can sometimes be a specialist distance, but I think it should suit her nicely. I think she’ll be able to save ground and then tip out in the stretch and make a good run. Jockey Edgar Morales is not having a real good meet, but I ended up picking him a couple times today, so hopefully he’s able to turn things around.
#8 Lovely Flash
This gray girl looks to be a potential pace player. She’s drawn outside, so that does give her options, and she should be able to stay in the clear. Her lone win was over a sloppy track, but she also has a couple good races on a dry track. She last raced back in March, and that was against older horses. This race is restricted to 3YOs, so that could be helpful. That last race has also proven to be a good one, with both the top two finishers coming back to win their next start. Tyler Gafflione rides for trainer Paul Holthus.
#8 Alizee
If the pace does fall apart, look for this filly to be rolling at the end. This horse has a chance to improve with the cutback in distance today. She had major trouble last time out, so just draw a line through that race. She was claimed by Tom Amoss over the winter at the Fair Grounds, and she’s run a couple good races since then. No surprise consider Tom has very good numbers in pretty much every statistical category. Miguel Mena has the mount today. This horse is owned by two very well know and respected horseplayers/contest players in Lawrence Kahlden and Brett Wiener.
Race 6
#4 Dontblamerocket
Layoff lines have been the theme of this guy’s career. However, he looks to be healthier now as he’s making his third start of the form cycle. He’s run some races in his past that would definitely make him competitive in here. He is a little pace dependent, so he’s gonna need them to go kind of quick early. On paper, it looks like he may get that type of setup. He’s 4 for 9 on the grass, so he knows how to win. He’s dropping in class today also, so that could help. He’s trained by Al Stall and will be ridden by Miguel Mena. Mena has rode him for the majority of this horse’s career, so he’s familiar with him.
#1 Murad Khan
This guy has a few similarities with the horse I mentioned above. This gelding is also making his third start off a layoff, and he’s dropping out of that same race. This guy has a little more tactical speed, and he’s drawn inside, so he should get a ground saving trip. He has also faced some pretty salty runners in his past. Trainer Eddie Kenneally has been on fire at the meet, and pretty much everything he sends out put forth a good effort. Brian Hernandez Jr has been on this guy before, and he returns today.
#3 Keep Quiet
This Peter Miller trained horse is also dropping from a second level allowance condition. His last race was a strong showing at Keeneland. He should be able to lay within a couple lengths of the early pace. He’s been beaten as the favorite a handful of times in his career, so I would look to that here too. As I mentioned earlier in the card, Miller and jockey David Cohen are off to a slow start at the meet. This horse is owned by Gary Barber, who’s probably still riding high of his Preakness victory last week with War of Will.
Race 7
#4 Explorer
As a typical Bob Baffert trainee does, this guy brings lots of speed to the party. I think his last effort was very good coming off a 10 month layoff. It was in the slop, he set honest fractions, and lost to a classy horse in Wooderson. The third place horse in that race has since come back to win. There is other speed in this race, one horse to his inside, and another drawn toward the outside. This race is 7F, so I’m hoping he can stay out of a complete pace duel. But even so, I think he’s absolutely the best horse in regardless, and definitely the one to beat. He’s working well after that last race, so I’m thinking he’s gonna fire a big effort today. Shaun Bridgmohan rides.
#9 Chase the Ghost
This Ghostzapper colt will be facing older horses for the first time. He ran some decent races at the Fair Grounds, including his effort in the G3 Lecomte. His last race here at Churchill on Derby day was also a showing. He’s a little inconsistent, so I’m crossing my fingers that he can put two nice races together here. Brian Hernandez got aboard him for the first time in that most previous race, so maybe he has the magic touch with this horse. A duplicate performance of that race will put him in the mix today.
#1 Nifty
This is another colt by the great Ghostzapper. This guy broke his maiden last time out in the slop at Oaklawn. This is will be his first attempt at a race that isn’t 6F. I don’t think the extra furlong will bother him at all. Based on his running lines and style, he kind of looks like a two turn horse to me. But nonetheless, he’s still got a chance in this spot. It looks like he’ll be able to sit midpack, and then as Calvin Borel usually does, he’ll look for a seam up the inside and see if they can make a run.
Race 8
#6 My Boy Jack
I kind of struggled with this race, so I ended up going with this guy. One stat that really stood out here is that trainer Keith Desormeaux is 6 for his last 14 (43%) with horses second off a layoff of over six months. So this horse may take a big step forward today. He obviously has some back class, including a couple of G3 wins. I don’t really love any of horses he’s actually beaten, but I’m sort of picking this guy on potential. He’s also 2 for 2 at this distance. He’ll need some pace in front of him in order to showcase his good closing kick. Corey Lanerie rode him in his comeback race, and he’s back in the saddle today.
#5 Hawaakom
I really considered putting this 9YO gelding on top in this race, but he just doesn’t win a lot anymore. He still shows up and usually fires a consistent effort, but it’s mostly for minor placings at this point. He is also just 1 for 12 here at Churchill. He also will need a favorable pace scenario in front of him, as he will try to rally from far back. Trainer Wesley Hawley is having a great meet with limited starters. 5 of his 7 runners have hit the board. Miguel Mena in the irons.
#2 Ballard High
This colt by Flat Out is coming off a second level allowance win at Keeneland in the mud. He has run well on a fast track before too, so I don’t the track conditions bother him too much. Plus, he’s 1 for 1 over this oval, so we know he likes it. He also has some tactical speed, which could be useful in this race. I also like his post position in this spot, and he gets one of the best riders at the meet in Gabriel Saez.
Race 9
#9 All in Stew Oui
This guy’s been off for a couple months, but he ran a couple good races at Gulfstream over the winter. Trainer Ian Wilkes is about 16% with this length of layoff, and he’s a nice 22% in maiden claiming races. There are a few nice drills on his worktab, so that’s a plus. I do have some concerns about the mile and a eighth distance, but I have that concern about a few of them in here. His outside post isn’t ideal, so hopefully Chris Landeros can work out a trip from midpack.
#7 My Dream
This colt is 0 for 10 so far, but he’ll be taking the drop into maiden claiming company for the first time today, so that could help him. He has run some solid races, and I think he’ll handle the distance just fine. He has absolutely zero for early speed, but he does look to be the best closer in here; so I expect him to be flying at the finish. Trainer Vickie Foley is chilly so far this year, just one win, but she does lure a hot jockey in Gabriel Saez.
#8 Snap Hook
This gelding is also taking the drop from maiden special weight. He ran a decent race at Tampa two back, and that was off a long layoff. His last race wasn’t great, but the drop could help him. He showed more pace last than he has so far this year. If he would be able to revert back to last years form, he’d probably be pretty tough in here. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is a solid 28% when dropping into maiden claimers. And this horse looks to be working well. Corey Lanerie is the rider.