A big 11 race card here on the final Friday of the spring meeting. The circuit heads off to Ellis Park after this.
Race 1
#7 Windy City Kitty
This is one of a bunch of first time starters in here. And I actually like this horse quite a bit. Trainer Joan Scott doesn’t run many horses here at Churchill, but she winning at 19% on the year, so she obviously an effective trainer. She’s also 19% with 2YOs, and 32% in maiden claiming races. This horse has been preparing at Keeneland and has a pretty nice worktab. She tabs James Graham to ride.
#6 Ignis
Maybe third time will be the charm for this filly. Her first two starts leave quite a bit to be desired. She’s owned, and trained by Steve Asmussen. I do really value experience in these types of races, but gosh, she hasn’t shown much talent so far. Steve’s main guy Ricardo Santana will be aboard again.
#9 Pearl Dragon
Another firster here. This filly is a homebred for Rockingham Ranch. She has a decent pedigree, being by Goldenscents and out of a Pioneerof the Nile mare. Peter Miller trains, and typically these are the types of races that Pete can dominate. But that has not been happening here in Kentucky, his California success hasn’t transferred over. He’s winning at just 6% this meet. The works seem a little slow for a Miller runner, so we’ll see if this one has any talent. Tyler Gaffalione will be the pilot.
Race 2
#4 Grit and Glory
This looks like a pretty evenly matched group. I’ll give this gelding a look in the top spot. I can come up with excuses for 3 of his 4 races. You can draw a line through his to wet track efforts. And his race 3 back was off an eleven month layoff, and he still ran okay. Then two back he put it all together and beat a field of maiden $50,000. I think he might have a tactical advantage in this spot, so I’m hoping Tyler Gaffalione has him forwardly placed from the start. Trainer Stanley Hough is having a very good meet and year to this point.
#5 Believeinholidays
This horse is very consistent. The problem is, that usually only leads to a minor award for him. He has six seconds in 15 career races, and in four tries at today’s distance, he has four second place finishes. So I’ll put him in that spot for my picks. He’s tactical enough to where he can normally sit a good trip. Trainer Paul McGee is a little cold this meet, just one win in 23 starts.
#1 Snap Hook
This guy is a little interesting. This will be his first try on the dirt, and I actually this his pedigree could be better for the dirt than it was for the turf. The distance will be no problem, he broke his maiden last time out going a mile and an eighth. I don’t expect much speed from him. So hopefully Corey Lanerie can save some ground and navigate his way from the back of the pack. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is about 20% when going turf to dirt. He’s also very effective in claiming races, hitting at 34%.
Race 3
#8 Woody’s Reward
This will be the first try for this filly at the $20,000 level. She has run decent against company a little tougher than this group before. This race looks to have very little pace on paper, so hopefully she isn’t too far back in the early going. I don’t love her post position in here, but she might be good enough to overcome it. Julien Leparoux will team up with Charlie Lopresti here, and they hit at 21% together; and an even better 33% when its here at Churchill.
#1 Princess Kiah
Not a super strong group of runners here. So I’ll give this girl a chance to hit the board. Her race two back wasn’t too awful, and it was her only dry on a fast track, so maybe that’s what she prefers. That was also her only try against claiming company. So this level could be a group that she likes. They will be adding blinkers for this race, so maybe that will sharpen her up today. Trainer John Ennis is winless at the meet, so let’s see if he can get to the winners circle before the meet ends. Gabriel Saez will ride.
Race 4
#8 Elusive d’Oro
This is one of the few in here that have previous race experience. This colt will be making career start number two. The first one was a good effort. However, that was on the turf, and this one will be on the dirt. I don’t really see the surface switch being an issue, I think he’ll handle the dirt just fine. Asmussen is about 20% with second time starters, and also 20% going turf to dirt. Ricardo Santana will be in the saddle.
#12 Crossing the Moon
This colt is a newcomer by Cross Traffic. Ken McPeek is only about 2% with first timers, although, he is 14% with his two year olds, so he is capable with a youngster. This horse also has a pretty quick worktab, including a couple of sharp breezes from the gate. The post position is obviously not ideal, breaking from post 12 in spot like this will be tough. But if Jack Gilligan can work out a trip from there, I think this horse will show some ability.
#2 Noose
This debut runner is a homebred for Joseph Sutton. Eddie Kenneally is the trainer; he is 10% with first time starters, and about 15% with 2YOs. Kenneally has been on fire this meet, and pretty much everything he sends out is running well. This colt has a nice steady worktab, and it looks like they tightened the screws the that last gate drill. Corey Lanerie rides, he connects at nearly 30% when he rides for Kenneally here at Churchill.
Race 5
#1 Orageuse
This seems to be an improving horse. I’ll kind of draw a line through her last race, she had a tough post position and also had a pretty rough trip that day. Before that she looked to be coming into her own. The race two back feature a couple of next out winners, so that looks to be a live race. She draws well down on the inside today, and I think she’ll be able to sit close and save some ground. She’s been pretty versatile in the past. Adam Beschizza rides for trainer Brendan Walsh.
#2 East Moon
I’m not exactly sure what happened in her last race. She had run well enough on the dirt before, but she did absolutely no running last time. She’ll switch back to the turf here. Rusty Arnold is about 14% with that maneuver. This filly looks to be working alright since that last race, so maybe she’ll bounce back with a nice effort. She’s faced some nice runners in the past, and her two previous tries on the grass were respectable. I think she’ll be forwardly placed in this spot. Florent Geroux will get aboard her for the first time.
#7 Domonette
This mare will probably be the speed of the speed in this race. She likes to be out front, doesn’t necessarily need the lead, but is probably most effective when dictating the tempo. Two of her best races have come on the Churchill lawn. Trainer Paul McGee has just one win at the meet so far, but he’s got 10 seconds and thirds, so his horse are firing. Tyler Baze rode her last time in the off the turf race, and he’ll make a return appearance on her today.
I do also want to mention two horses on the also eligible list. The #11 Amandrea and the #12 Cubs Win, will both be major players in here if they draw into the race. So keep an eye on that.
Race 6
#7 Greeley’s Charm
Six year old gelding making his first start for his new trainer Hugo Rodriguez. Rodriguez is wins at roughly 20% with horses first time for him. This horse is in decent form right now, and has run two nice races so far at this meet. He’s finished in the exacta 6 out of 10 times he’s raced at Churchill. Plus, he’s 2 for 2 at today’s 7F distance. He has a nice post position today, and Miggy Mena rode this guy to a blowout victory two races ago, and he will get back in the saddle today.
#10 Trappe Valley
Another horse that looks to be on the improve. His last 8 races have all been solid efforts. His last to races were on Arlington Park’s synthetic surface, but this horse has run well on dirt in the past; so I don’t think the surface change here will be a problem. It looks like his preferred trip would be coming from just off the pace, so his outside post shouldn’t hurt him too much. Chris Landeros rides for Brittany Vanden Berg.
#4 Keyed On Top
I think the cutback to 7F could aid this one’s chances. Trainer Ethan West added blinkers three races ago, and it seems to have helped now. He’s shown more speed lately, and I think he’ll be close to the pace here today. And this horse likes to win, he’s got 6 wins in 16 lifetime starts. He also doesn’t mind slop, if it should happen to rain. Churchill vet Corey Lanerie will hop aboard.
Race 7
#3 Artemus Bridge
This colt is quite consistent. He’s hit the board in all six lifetime races. His last two races were here on the Churchill main track, and they were both good efforts. He’s never been at a level this low, so this is a pretty aggressive spot here. But, these are aggressive connections, so that doesn’t worry me. Given today’s distance, I’d except him to be coming from behind, he looks to be a grinder. Mike Maker trains this Ramsey homebred, Tyler Gaffalione will ride.
#8 Summerduck
This gray colt is first off the claim here for Norm McKnight. He’s 32% off the claim, and a very high percentage trainer overall. However, he’s been a little cold at Churchill, winning at less than 10%. This horse is one for one at the 7F distance, and he’s two for three over this track. He’s got enough early speed so he should be able to sit close to the pace in the early going. This is a bump up in class, but his last few races have been against older horses, and this one is restricted to 3YOs. Jockey David Cohen will be aboard.
Race 8
#3 Leinster
Haven’t seen this guy in a couple months. His last race was back in April at Keeneland. That was a very solid win over first level allowance foes. Both of his starts with blinkers have led to good results. Trainer Rusty Arnold is very good with turf sprinters, hitting at nearly 30%. This horse is only four years old, and I think they may have found him a new home on the grass. He draws well in here, and he should be able to sit a good pocket trip. Florent Geroux will get aboard for the first time.
#4 Sir Navigator
Robertino Diodoro claimed this one two back. He ran a very good 2nd at this condition last time out. In fact, considering this guy is 7YO, he is in very good form. He looks to be one of the best closers in here, so I expect him to be finishing well. David Cohen will ride, and as I’ve mentioned all meet, he is really struggling. He’s winning at just 3% this meet. And he is 0 for his last 34 when teaming up with Diodoro at Churchill. Maybe they can finally break though today.
#7 Mister Maestro
This guy is another 7YO; he’s definitely had his issues considering he’ll be making just his 16th career start. He does have seven wins though, so he knows what to do when he’s out there. I really think he needed his last race, before that he hadn’t raced since November. She showed a little late interest in that last start, so I think he could take a step forward today. When this guy’s sharp he usually shows quite a bit of early speed. Trainer Michael Tomlinson is 25% in turf sprints, and Tyler Baze will ride.
Race 9
#4 D Squared
This guy has been pretty good in his return to the races here in 2019. He came off a 10 month layoff back in May, and he’s won back to back races now; both of which were here at Churchill. He’s looks to have a decent pace advantage in here, and very well could be alone on the lead which could make him dangerous. Asmussen claimed him two back for $30,000, won an allowance race, and now enters him for $40,000. So it’s been a productive claim. Ricardo Santana will hop aboard this gelding for the first time.
#9 Zeke
I’m thinking the cutback in distance will help this guy. He’s made good moves in his past two races, but flattened out at the end. He’s proven he likes this surface based on his two most recent races. And most of his dirt starts have been solid. I would look for him to be coming from a little off the pace in this spot. Michelle Lovell trains, and Gabriel Saez will be the rider.
#10 Cheytac
I do not love the quick turnaround here. He just raced 7 days ago, and that was a horrendous effort. But that was on the turf, and I think he likes the dirt a little better. His two most recent dirt tries would definitely be good enough to make him a factor in here. He looks to be one of the quicker ones in here, so I think he should get a good stalking trip from his outside post. Angel Montano trains and Adam Beschizza will be in the irons.
Race 10
#8 Flat Out Winner
Usually first time against winners isn’t an angle I that like that much, but I do kind of like this horse here. His last win was very impressive, in fact, both of his fast main track races are pretty good. I don’t think the mile distance will be an issue. Trainer Joe Sharp is 31% when doing 2 sprints to a route distance. This horse some speed, so I’ll think he’ll be fairly close to the pace. Joe’s main man Adam Beschizza will be in saddle.
#7 Get the Prize
All four of this colt’s races have earned nice speed figures. It does bother me slightly that he has had a late lead in his past two races, and still found a way to get run down at the end. But, maybe the slight cutback today will help cure that. Talent wise, he’s probably at the top of the group in here. Al Stall has had a fantastic meet winning at 28%. Miguel Mena has ridden this colt in every start, and he’s on today.
#5 Proschema
This horse exits the same common race as the horse I mentioned above. Here’s another one that I think might benefit from the slight cutback in distance. He sat close to a slow pace last time, so given today’s shorter distance I would expect him to be further back in the early going. Tyler Baze will ride. He has had a somewhat solid meet here for his first time riding here on the Kentucky circuit.
Race 11
#1 Better Biz
I think this is an improving filly. She’ll be making her third career start, and first time on the grass. I don’t think that the surface or the distance should be an issue. Trainer Phil D’Amato, who runs the majority of his runners in California, brought a few here for this Churchill meet. And while he doesn’t have a win, he’s had 7 of his 13 runners hit the board. I think the inside draw is good. I’m hoping for a ground saving trip from the inside. Jimmy Graham rode her last time, and he’ll be the pilot today.
#7 Lemon Chill
This girl comes out of the same race as the horse I mentioned above. She didn’t run as well in that spot. But overall her two races are not that bad, and her breeding definitely suggests that she’ll like the stretch out on the turf. From a small sample size, Donnie Von Hemel is about 13% turf to dirt. She draws fine in here and I would expect a midpack trip. Chris Landeros in irons.
#10 Our Bay B Ruth
First off, very clever name here. Sire is Candy Ride, and the dam is Ruthenia. And he’s a Bay colored filly.
She made her return to the races a couple weeks ago, and that was off a nine month layoff. She showed speed and then faded pretty badly. But, that was on a sloppy track. Her two turf races last year as a 2YO were pretty good, especially the route one. Eddie Kenneally is 41% with second off the layoff types. And he’s been on fire all meet, hitting at nearly 30%. Tyler Gaffalione will ride.