Finally… I get the opportunity to actual dive in deep into the entire card. A couple weeks of hectic work has put a damper into the time I’ve been able to give towards my day for the Gallop. Here we are though, a nice 9 race card we have here. The number of entries arent super high but the quality of the horses in each event is DEEP. Lets not waste any more time and dive right on in….
Race 1
You can’t find a deeper field of runners then what we have here. An extremely difficult opening leg of the Pick5 to start this Friday card. You have four horses that average 90+ E1 pace, very few closers. As much as it looks like closers will be in favor here, both “true closers” aren’t much to look at. I don’t like clicking the ALL button on difficult legs but I really don’t know how to split these runners apart.
#6 Nomo Ryan, 9/2: This is where I will land with my “top pick”, if you want to call it that. This gelding for Jason Barkley was claimed from the Diodoro barn last time out for 8k and takes quite the hike up here. Horse has been in great form, coming off two wins in a row against weaker but speed figures match well against this group. Its really nice to see that Barkley runs this one right back off a huge effort LTO. Now, what will be 2nd off the layoff, I dont see any reason why he cant run right back to that 89 speed figure here. Horse doesnt need the lead but does have tactical speed. Should get a really good trip while breaking towards the outside of this group.
#5 Around the Dial, 4/1: Do we need to go through what Dio does 1st off the claim? He’s only 25% with +ROI overall and a whopping 36% while dropping runners 1st off the claim with another +ROI. In a field that seems to be a true toss up, sometimes its just as easy as seeing such stats that I just mentioned to get your winner. Dio puts his guy Cohen aboard. Another runner who has tactical speed and has shown better efforts while running 6f (6.5f here). Some class relief as well. Will be tough but will likely be the “overplayed” horse in here.
#2 Top Brass, 7/2: This gelding for Sadler comes out of one of the strongest open 25 races you’ll see at CD. A group of 12 went forward that day this runner ran on pretty evenly throughout while having some excuses. If this comes down to the classiest horse in here, this is where you’d land. An absolute must use in here on the drop. Everything makes a lot of sense.
Race 2
Perhaps it could be as easy as seeing what the Double Will Pays will be to the Asmussen runner in here but I’m gonna go in a different direction. Not just a different direction, but a single to start the Early Pick4 and the 2nd leg of the Pick5.
#6 Fabricate, 5/1: I’ll be singling this filly with any and every ticket I play for a couple of reasons. First of all, sire is winning at a near 25% clip while sprinting on debut. Secondly, this is the only runner that a slew of works on the tab. Not only a slew of them but they are quick and extremely eye popping. One of those includes the work on 6/22, 4f :48.2 from the gate, breezing. Prior to that, 5f, 1:00 and change. I know Wilkes isnt known for winning with babies first time out but I think this might be one of the weakest MSW fields I’ve seen this meet and finding a weak spot could just do the trick. As I mentioned at the beginning of this race, I believe the Asmussen runner will take majority of the money, the Into Mischief baby will always take a lot of money, which leaves us with our runner who I think could EASILY float from that 5/1 ML number. Top choice!
Race 3
#2 Locally Owned, 7/2: After speaking with Stall, he cant believe how unlucky he has been with this gelding. LTO, ran a really nice second to Sprawl who was the clear winner but in that race, this gelding was bounced around at the break, had to check around the first turn and the eventual winner got first run on him. He beat the others handily that day and I believe is due for some nice racing luck. Although its a little hidden on paper, this runner does have some tactical speed which could prove to be important in here while stretching out to the 9f distance for the first time. Stall keeps Gaff in the irons which is a really nice sign. A little racing luck I think is what this one needs to get the job done in here. NOTE: The single drill between races is not uncommon for Stall and the fact that it was on the slower side, is not a concern either. This one should be ready for a big effort.
#8 Hombrazo, 12/1: SNEAKY TOMLINSON… thinks he can squeeze one by me. With this runner, its all about the return to the main track and stretching out. The best runs of this ones life has come on dirt and stretching out. The fact there was a trainer switch doesnt surprise me at all. I think the run at GP on the grass was just so Tomlinson can see him run. Thats it. This is where they were planning on coming and I have no reason to think this one isnt live here. Watch that race on 2/1 at Tampa. Sure, it was a 4 horse race, but the fact that this one ran on, solid finishing time and race came back strong with strong speed figures, tells me this one has talent. Perhaps we see that talent on display here.
#6 Beau Luminarie, 7/2: This will be the runner that will get extremely overplayed in here. This 7/2 line wont stand, or if it does, I’ll be AMAZED! Lightly raced gelding for Brisset here who is coming out of really fast races and will be going 2 turns for the first time. With having speed, this will be the one they’ll have to catch on the front end. It will be up to JulienL to get this one out of the gate and on the front end here to have a chance. If he can do that, class, talent and previous speed figures tower over this field. There shouldn’t be any excuses with that 6/21, 3f :35 flat drill. Lets one should be ready to roll off the small layoff.
Race 4-
#6 Glamour Girl, 3/1: I’m gonna give this filly one more crack at it. I’ve had this one on top in her last 4 races and she just cant seem to get over the hump. LTO, first off the shelf, she ran a really nice 2nd to a runaway winner. With the 5f 1:00.1 drill on 6/21, now 2nd off the layoff, an improve is in store, although I dont know if she needs to improve much if any to beat this group in here. Larry Jones brings back Garcia to ride again who rode her to that 2nd place finish just 4 weeks ago. All systems seems to be a go with this filly here to break her maiden in start number 9. NOTE: Larry is 19% 2nd off the shelf with a close to even ROI.
#8 She’s a Deal, 12/1: This long-striding filly, trained by Helen Pitts looks to be primed for a monster effort here. In only two starts on the dirt, this one has improved from a 72 speed figure to an 82 speed figure last time out. That 82 speed figure is a top, off the shelf, which means there is a lot of improvement to be had. It’s clear that this one has been begging for more ground with her long strides and should get a nice pace to run at with many of runners coming out of sprints or shorter races. JulienL gets the call for the second straight time and will have many of targets in front of him tomorrow. NOTE: Nice to see that Pitts sneaks in a couple or works prior to this effort… a nice 4f drill :48 and change and the 5f 1:01.4 on 6/14.
#2 Messina, 4/1: TAP has tried this filly on the grass in her first three starts of career with very little to hang their hat on. The switch to the dirt could be all that this one asks for. This filly was purchased for $825k at FTS in 2018. The expectations were high and I do believe they still could be. Perhaps they figure it all out here while trying the conventional dirt for the first time in career. Breeding says that the dirt shouldn’t be an issue, the distance shouldn’t be the issue. A lot to like here for this TAP runner.
Race 5-
BEST BET OF THE DAY!!!!
#7 Chocolate Bar, 9/2: Maker has been extremely tough with recent runners on the lawn. Ultimately, this comes down to the jockey upgrade this one will get today. We go from Davis to Reyes and now we get Gaff in the irons. The improve from start one to start number two lifetime was significant. The workout pattern is really nice and gives me no reason to not think this one wont be fresh off the shelf. Sure this is a MSW field, but those MCL fields were extremely tough and came back really fast down at GP. The plan all along for Maker runners is to ship up here and win races. I think we should get a fair price on him today as our BEST BET!!! NOTE: Around the training track the words “best of the Makers keeps coming up when they mention this one. I’ve been waiting and cant wait to see her stretch out today and get to the wire first.
Race 6
#6 Continuum, 6/1: There are questions that need to be answered here with this one. Been laid up since Aug, comes back after winning debut at MSW level to a 30k tag. Why? To try and answer these questions as best as I can, I’m sure runner had some sort of setback/injury, had to be laid up and now Asmussen wants to win trainer title and Winchell is trying to help him win that by dropping this runner in for a tag. As far as on paper, its these 5f drills at KEE, a deep track, a heavy track, 1:00 and change that keeps making me come back to this runner. Lets also remind ourselves that Santana, who we know always rides for Asmussen, prolly had the choice to ride the Walsh runner who he just rode to victory 4 weeks ago. Instead, he lands here and I think this group is soft enough to where they can get the job done. Top pick.
#11 Hidden Promise, 8/1: It is so hard to win from these outside posts going the 7/8ths or single turn mile at CD. With that being said, I really like this runner for Sadler who has very little speed, will be flying late. What I like about this runner is that he comes out of an open race that was quick and received a good speed figure for that effort. The 7f should fit this gelding like a glove and will have enough speed to run at while showing that he wont be to far back to get the job done. Gaff gets the call today and another fast track could equal to another top effort from this one.
#1 Queens Mason, 5/1: Sometimes its just about figuring it out and once figured out, they are tough to beat in comebacks. It took this one 10 starts to break his maiden but that effort will translate extremely well here. A runner who has early foot, breaking from the rail, should be the one they’ll have to catch in here. The move from 6f to 7f shouldn’t be much of an issue as this horse had a nice gallop out after breaking his maiden. I love to see Tomlinson bringing this one back quickly and to a reasonable level here. If fresh again, against a pretty weak field, there is no question that this one is a legit contender breaking from the rail with speed to burn.
Race 7
The toughest race, top to bottom, of this card. There are so many angles you can go with here, which will cause for some very even betting. The one thing I noticed in here is that is truly lacks speed. Thats where I landed with my top choice, outside of that, its a really tough group to pick through.
#8 Dinar, 9/2: IMO, this will be the runner that will inherit the lead today. A horse who has speed, not gun blazing speed, but nonetheless, enough speed to get the lead in here and is in good form. LTO, this colt for DeVaux beat a so so field but more importantly, ran a top off the shelf. With how this colt has been working in the AM, I believe another top effort is in line here and he’ll need all of it. This 9/2 line is based on that effort LTO but there are other classier horses in here that will be more eye popping than this one. I believe we could see the odds float unless “the word is out” and horse gets crushed at the windows. We keep Gaff and there is no question that the best efforts from this one have come at CD where he is 4-2-1-1. Top pick and the one to catch in here.
#10 Jungle Warfare, 8/1: The one that is perhaps in the best form, this gelding is in the barn of Dio for the first time and will take a hike in class here. After back to back monster efforts, and working on a 3up speed figure, the move to the Dio barn shouldnt have an effect on the continuous improvement. What puts this one over the top for me is the effort two races back where he routed for the first time for Sadler…. that day, he was closer to the lead, parked outside and pounced on them coming for home. I think this is the type of race style we will see from him today. Stay outside, stay clear, be closer to the pace and make one big run at a square price.
#3 Seek The Peak, 12/1: This is my live longshot, play of the day. Horse will absolutely float from this 12/1 ML. There are to many other runners that will get more action that could get us a really big price on this live runner. I know the speed figures are significantly lower then some of the top competitors in here but I think thats more of a product of the track speeds. Off the shelf, this one didnt show much against an AOC field here at CD on 5/30. I honestly believe the only reason for that is because the horse needed one off the shelf. That was just a prep for this effort here and you can see that as the speed figure for the effort was 86 (a near top) and now two works and running right back in 3 weeks tells me that this horse came back super clean off the shelf. I would expect nothing less then a top effort here and improvement will be needed if this horse wants to compete for anything other then just minor awards.
Race 8
Single city in the Friday feature!!!
#3 Mr. Misunderstood, 9/2: This is Cox’s only runner of the day. He’s been on FIRE this meet and doesnt seem to be stopping anytime soon. I really liked the return race off the layoff where he finished 7th but only beaten 2 lengths while having all the trouble in the world and having to go super wide. Now 2nd off the layoff, there is no question that he will improve here in this spot. I love the fact that this one has had two works since that effort which includes the 4f drill :48 flat on the CD turf course. Flo gets the call on a horse who he has ridden from day 1. Horse loves CD, 7-5-0-1, the distance 9-5-0-2, and will be super tough in here with the expectation of improvement, 2nd off.
Race 9-
#6 Katie’s Belle, 8/1: Perhaps its the layoff that is the concern but I cant imagine that they let this runner go off at 8/1 in here. This filly gets moved over to the Lovell barn and has been working lights out for this level of MCL’s. Lovell has had some really nice runners so far this meet and has been live in almost every race she’s had a runner. The 4f drill on 6/21 :48.1 is something that I circled as an important prep to tell me this runner is a contender. Combine that with the fact that this horse is 2-0-1-1 at CD, 3-0-1-1 at the distance makes this nearly a perfect storm. If we can get Achard to have a serious left hand today, I think we can snag all the money here at what should be a nice price!
#10 Teenage Kicks, 5/2: The obvious horse to beat in here. This one finished first LTO but was placed 3rd through disqualification. Horse has speed, drawn outside and should be primed for another top effort today. With being parked outside, and no other speed runners around, I think they could be chasing this one all the way around. Horse will be grossly overbet but is undeniably the horse to beat here. Brisset puts Gaff on again here. Rightfully the ML favorite.
#12 Master of Domain, 3/1: Gets the class drop here and should be live with Flo in the irons for Maker. Has been working extremely well at KEE and could be prepping for an effort there and this could be used as a bridge to a race there but you cant discount these connections in such a cheap race. Has some tactical speed and should be in a nice position to run down the heavy favorite if she is ready to roll off the shelf.
I wish everybody the best of luck. I’ll be posting some tickets on my Twitter, @DaVilleKY32. Lets get some winners home!!!