We are going to do something a little bit different today. We are going to dive into just the Late Pick5 and see if we cant give out a reasonable winning ticket for this sequence. Lets not waste any more time, lets dive right on in…
The Late Pick5 contains races 5-9. I think the fields were difficult to handle and could pay a nice number without “breaking your bankroll”.
Race 5:
Nine 3yos in for 40k line up here in the first leg of the Pick5. They’ll be going the one turn mile here at CD.
This was a tough race to figure out as you have a couple in here who were nominated for the TC and then you have a couple of runners coming in off wins at this level or similar. I landed on the Brad Cox runner who cant seem to do much wrong of recent (yes I know his runners in the last couple races yesterday didnt win). #6 Something Natural has the highest avg E1 and LP in here. Horse has all the back class one would need to tower over this field here which includes running 2nd behind Wells Bayou in an AOC back in Jan. I believe this horse will get crushed at the windows with the class relief he’ll get here and with how hot Brad Cox has been recently. Has been working well in the AM and the cutback with tactical speed and the best LP in the field causes for a really good chance this one gets in done today. The only other runner that I’ll use in here is #9 Carpe Victoriam who is a small price on the ML, 5/1. This colt for Tom Amoss ran his eyes out LTO in that open 30k event at OP but what I like about his chances here is the fact that he’s the only one with true speed. If perhaps the big dogs dont break well, he could be out there walking the dog and be tough to catch coming out of those really fast sprints. Very likely this horse could fold like an old book against these much classier horses or even regress massively after the big effort at OP. Either way, I believe he’s a must include just in case Cohen is able to get an easy lead here.
Must Uses: 6,9
Race 6:
Nine fillies and mares were lined up to go 7f in here but with the early scratches of the 6 and 9 leaves us with just seven runners in here. This is where my single of the sequence will come from. I dont really love this race but didnt feel the need of going deep. I’m going to single the #4 Kisses for Heidi in here for Colebrook and James Graham. 8/1 on the line, this one is getting the conventional dirt for the first time and will be getting lasix for just the second time in career. With what I’ve seen on video in the morning at KEE, there is no doubt that this one should relish the conventional dirt as opposed to the poly track.
Must Uses: 4
Race 7:
One of the most confusing races of the day, let alone the sequence, comes here in this AOC100k. A line of eight fillies will go 1 1/16m here. A common race is the Fantasy G3 at OP in which half of these runners come out of. I put #2 Alta’s Award on top but the confidence is zero. Although beaten widening lengths (13 in the end), I liked her return to the track finishing 4th that day. Typically she has some tactical speed and was left in the gate that day. Now 2nd off the layoff, I dont think there is any question that this one will improve here. A tough field but if breaks well, should be in the thick of it early. Doug O’Neill has an interesting runner in here with #8 Lazy Daisy who was the winner of the Pocahontas last September here at CD. That effort was huge in only effort under the Twin Spires. 2nd off the layoff as well, returns to a track and distance in which this one has won previously, should be tough as well. Long story short, I’m going to click the ALL button. I just cant trust those two especially with Cox having a live runner in here as well who could be the one to beat. I’m hoping we can snag a price by clicking the ALL.
Must Uses: 2,8Using: ALL on deeper ticket
Race 8:
In this 1 1/8m turf event for 3yo and upward fillies and mares, I think this is the best race of the day. I’m only going to use three runners in here and two of them will be prices. On top, I like #7 Eternal Peace who is 7/2 ML and had a very impressive return to the track after being off for a year+. Has been working well in the morning and gets a nice jockey upgrade from Maragh to Geroux today. If fresh off the shelf again, no question this one is one of the top contenders in here. #6 Private Beach, 12/1 ML, has to be a must include for those who are playing this sequence. Horse is out of Malibu Moon and should relish the grass for the first time in career. First time in the barn for Matthew Martinez who sneaked in a nice 4f drill :48.4 on May10. Horse has a lot of talent and should get a full display today seeing the grass. Lastly, #10 Singita Dreams who is also 12/1 has had some impressive runs over the grass in the couple times. Perhaps a little on the cheaper side, this runner is getting better and better with every start and I think the return to the grass we could see another monster effort here.
Must Uses: 6,7,10
Race 9:
To end a sequence with a race like this is extremely difficult for those still alive. Luckily for me, I do have a pretty strong opinion. This MCL75k for 3yo and upward going the one turn mile is loaded with runners who’ve had very little success on the track which leads to my top choice, #4 Mishawaka 12/1 ML, who we havent seen on race day yet. Gorder comes in 33% with runners debuting going 1m or longer and has a runner who has some win early pedigree with Declaration of War being the sire. 12/1 seems fair but if the word is right, this horse will be half of that at PT. #6 Wild Union, 4/1 ML, has to be the one to beat for me in here. Dropping in for a tag for the first time of career, is trained by Brad Cox who we said earlier that he cant do much wrong right now. Horse has been working extremely well in the morning and is now 3rd off the layoff and should get a top effort which, if he runs to that 92 speed figure LTO, everybody else is running for 2nd. Lastly, #7 Mister K, 15/1 ML, is a FTS for Neil Pessin who comes out of a 17% sire of winners first time out, been working well in the AM at CD which includes 4f :47 flat drill on May29. Comes from a dam that has produced 2 winners from 2 starters and Pessin is 22% with MCL runners. Murrill is only 3 for 25 but has been riding better of recent.
Must Uses: 4,6,7
Here are my two tickets:
6,9 / 4 / 2,8 / 6,7,10 / 4,6,7 $186,9 / 4 / ALL / 6,7,10 / 4,6,7 $72
Good luck to everybody and lets cash some tickets!!!