Churchill Downs Saturday November 23, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves pumpkin pie, Tony Soprano’s horse Pie O’ My, American Pie, and eating humble pie. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:00 post – MC 40000 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
1-5-3-7
Brad Cox’s #1 Santa Ana Winds was made the 2/1 ML favorite off her 10/30/19 performance in a MC $50K here at Churchill where she went off as the post time favorite to finish third. She did break poorly and was forced wide into the first turn under today’s jockey Corey Lanerie. She’s likely the best of this weak field. #3 Fashion Island hasn’t figured it out with new trainer Peter Miller since being claimed for much more than today’s price at Delmar on 8/3/19. Today is her tenth start as a maiden and seven of them have been on the turf. Her last start on 10/11/19 was washed off the sod to a muddy main track and I’m not sure what she did that day to warrant a return to the main track. I’m no trainer, so I am sure there is a reason even if the reason is that trainer Peter Miller is trying to catch a weak field. She could run them off their feet or be a complete no-show. I might give a little look to #5 Scary Animal today. She returned from a six-month layoff on the turf on 10/10/19 in an effort that was a complete waste, but trainer Buff Bradley has worked her five times since and she is sure to be tighter today.
Race Two: 1:30 post – Claiming 50000b 6 F Mile 3YO&Up
3-1-4-7
Owner/trainer Steve Asmussen has been running #3 Principe Guilherme against better competition for the past year, but he hasn’t been getting his picture taken. He is, however, a $600K purchase out of Tapit and hasn’t yet been gelded as a 4YO, so there’s hope for sure. He’s likely just better than the rest of these. to be the best of these on paper as she was running against graded stakes company earlier in the year. The other Asmussen #1 Whiskey Echo showed some promise as a 2YO last year but hasn’t been much since this past July. He won a nice OC on 5/27/19 here at CD before running a clunker in two stakes this past summer. It’s clear that Asmussen has always thought highly of him, but he hasn’t answered the bell. I find it interesting that Julien Leparoux chose him over #4 Elgar. This race flows through the Asmussens and I expect they’ll be tough to beat.
Race Three: 2:00 post – Allowance 105000nc 5 F Turf 2YO
5-4-1-6
All of the turf races have been washed off the grass to the main track today and the scratches of #2 Karak and #7 Toma Toda have eroded this field to just five runners.Wesley Ward’s #5 Joker On Jack might be good enough to wire this reduced field even though he has been away for four months. He is making his first appearance as a gelding, which should help his causes and the string of competent workouts suggests that the ultimate equipment change has worked. #1 Johnny Unleashed may try to run with the #5, but he looks to be a notch or two below.If a speed duel occurs, #4 Axiomo should be the primary beneficiary. His last two races haven’t been much, but he gets a huge barn upgrade with the move to Mike Maker and Florent Geroux in the irons. I’m not sure how much improvement can be made in two weeks, but this one has flashed some dirt talent in his earlier running lines.
Race Four: 2:30 post – MC 20000 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
11-4-8-5
This low-level maiden claimer features a full field of runners going in opposite directions, creating a quite the handicapping puzzle. Seven of these are dropping down the ladder looking to graduate, including the 3/1 ML favorite #4 Broken Oath. Trainer Brendan Walsh is dropping this $285K purchase out of MSW company for the first time today, but the question remains as to whether she is actually good enough to beat this field. Her figures suggest that she isn’t and her 11/8/19 effort here at Churchill Downs causes more doubt. I’m playing against her. Trainer Joe Sharp moves #11 Street Dazzle a step up the claiming ladder after her narrow loss against MC $15K company on 11/1/19 here at CD. Gabriel Saez stays up and the 11/15/19 workout indicates she might be sharp enough to take this group wire to wire. It should be noted that she ran on the front-end and made the lead coming down the stretch before getting caught late. Cutting back a half panel might help her cause. I suppose #8 Unsweet Tea has a shot against these, but she is unplaced in her four attempts under the Twin Spires and no one really likes unsweet tea. Gross.
Race Five: 3:03 post – MC 50000 6 F 2YO Fillies
6-1-5-12
Thirteen baby girls have signed on for this MC $50K sprint on the main track. Steve Asmussen looked like he has a good one back on 6/20/19 when #6 Mom’s Pass ran a very good second in a MSW turf sprint on 6/20/19. The problem is that she has done nothing but burn money since. She has been made the 9/5 ML favorite, thus providing us a money-making opportunity if we can beat her. The rest of these baby girls, however, don’t look like much. #1 Worthaprettypenny breezed a bullet from the gate on 10/20/19 before her first start and she took a bit of money for her 10/25/19 Keeneland debut, but she was never in the mix. If you believe that bullet was an indication of her talent, she should have every reason to improve today and I like the move up the claiming ladder. She looks sneaky playable. #5 Raggedy Annie ran a couple of good MSWs at Saratoga this summer before trying a high-dollar MSW on the sod at Kentucky Downs. Her last was a complete clunker, but her last two workouts show she still might have a little talent. There are certainly some negatives against her, however. She has no regular jockey, her trainer wins at 7% this year, and the popular connections have thrown her down the claiming ladder. Of the six first time starters, I prefer the looks of Stanley Hough’s #12 Simple Story. Hough wins at 20% with his FTS, though it is an admittedly small sample, and, let’s face it, other than Mom’s Pass, there isn’t much entered in this race.