Saturday November 3 rd at Churchill Downs
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Race 1: Alw 82000n1x, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upwards. Post Time:
10:45 AM EDT.
Selections: 4-6-8
(4) Own Agenda: Bill Mott sends out this son of First Defence following a second place effort
against similar over eight and a half furlongs at Keeneland last month. He has decent early speed
and should get out to the front in race that does not appear to have many other horses with front-
running tendencies. Own Agenda has won over this surface once before and he has hit the board
in two of his three attempts at the distance. However, his last two works over the Churchill main
track have been particularly sharp and its very encouraging to see Jose Ortiz (17% win rate in
route races this year) remain aboard.
(6) Tiz Mischief: The Dale Romans trainee, a son of Into Mischief, has not been seen in a long
time since finishing a well-beaten second behind King Zachary in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3)
over today’s distance at Churchill back in June. Unlike his prior races before that effort, Tiz
Mischief displayed a lot of early speed and ending up serving as pace-setter for much of the race
before finally being run down in the stretch. It is unclear exactly which running style he will
show today but he warrants a look as he’s finished in the money in four of his five lifetime starts
at the distance and has finished second all in all three of his efforts at Churchill. Romans has
done decently with runners returning to racing after layoffs of longer than 90 days away as he
has been winning at a 14% rate under those conditions. Additionally, Lanerie keeps the mount
and he has been riding very well this year at Churchill (24% win rate) and in route races (17%
win rate).
(8) Big Gemmy: The Bret Calhoun trainee stretches out past a mile for the first time since a third
place effort in a $50K Optional Claiming race at the Fair Grounds back in February. This son of
Gemologist has decent tactical speed and has shown the ability to either rate from just off of the
pace or close from well back to varying degrees of success. Calhoun has done very well over the
past three years when competing in Allowance races as he’s been winning at a 20% rate over that
time period. Additionally, Gabriel Saez will get the call once again and he’s done pretty well in
route races this year, winning them at a 17% rate. Two works back, Big Gemmy fired off a bullet
work over this main track at Churchill so he should be in form coming into this race. While he
may not be quite good enough to beat some of his more classy rivals in this field, there is the
potential that he could be overlooked on the toteboard and thus is worth playing underneath in
exotics especially at a price.
Race 2: The $200,000 Cherokee Run Stakes, Seven furlongs on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds.
Post Time: 11:15 AM EDT.
Selections: 6-8-3
(6) Mr. Freeze: His effort in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) back in September at Parx for trainer
Dale Romans was quite bizarre. He initially was up close to the pace and running well but then
just stopped and ended up finishing eighth 25 lengths behind the winner. Hopefully that was not
a harbinger of future poor efforts as he had finished either first or second in all four of his starts
prior to that race. Today, Mr. Freeze will not only be receiving a massive drop in class which he
should appreciate but he’ll also be cutting back in distance to a one turn elongated sprint as well
which should fit well with the versatile running style he possesses. Mr. Freeze has won once
before over both this distance and on the Churchill surface so that experience could play a factor
in this race. Romans has done very well when making the transition for his runners from route
races to sprints as he’s been winning at a 17% rate over the past three years. Additionally, Mr.
Freeze fired off an absolute scorcher of a work over five furlongs on the main track here and it
appears he could be coming into this race in excellent form. Finally, if Mr. Freeze goes off
around his 12-1 ML odds then he is certainly worth a long look as the top choice for any exotics.
(8) Kowboy Karma: While the Larry Jones trainee will be stepping up in class from his last
effort in a $100K Optional Claiming race over today’s distance at Churchill last month, his
running style seems well suited to the potential pace scenario for this race. There appears to be a
good amount of early speed entered and as Kowboy Karma has excellent late closing speed, he
might be flying down the stretch late to hit the board at a big price. His Bris Speed Ratings
(BSRs) at the distance are respectable enough and his most recent two works over the main track
indicate he should be in fine form despite the somewhat long layoff. Calhoun has been absolutely
impressive over the past three years not only with runners that won their last race (27% win rate)
but also when competing in non-graded stakes races (33% win rate). Gabriel Saez gets the call to
ride again, which is good to see as he’s been aboard in both of Kowboy Karma’s efforts at the
distance.
(3) Audible: This one was a tough call. Audible has not been seen in over six months since a
really good third place effort over a sloppy track in this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1). When he’s
at his best, this assembled field would present no problem for Audible to blow by down the
stretch; however, it is incredibly unclear as to exactly what form Audible is in right now. His
recent works have all been fairly solid but none of them were particularly flashy; although, prior
to his Derby effort, not many of those works were very flashy either. Pletcher has done quite
well with getting runners back into the winner’s circle after layoffs of over 90 days as he’s won
31% and finished in the money in 58% of his last 421 starts. Castellano gets the call to ride again
after having been onboard for his three of his last six starts. Overall, Audible could win this one
for fun today but at 2-1 ML odds which will likely be even lower at post time, he cannot be used
on top and merits use only as an underneath.
Race 12: The $200,000 Grade 2 Chilukki, One mile on the Dirt, For Fillies and Mares, Three
Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 6:22 PM EDT.
Selections: 6-2-3
(6) Divine Miss Grey: Trainer Danny Gargan sends out this daughter of Divine Park following a
second place effort in the nine furlong Beldame Invitational (G1) last month at Belmont Park.
Divine Miss Grey has run very well this year having hit the board in seven of eight tries, all
against stakes company. Additionally, she has yet to finish out of the exacta at today’s distance.
Her running style is primarily that of a pace-setter as she has very good early speed, yet she is
versatile enough that she can take back and rate when necessary. The TimeForm Pace Projector
for this race indicates a fairly fast pace, while the OptixPLOT suggests that of all the runners in
the field that have the ability to be forwardly placed, Divine Miss Grey has the best closing
ability amongst the bunch. Although Divine Miss Grey has yet to race at Churchill Downs,
Gargan has done very well over the past three years when shipping runners to contest races as he
has won 25% of his last 147 starts. Divine Miss Grey appears to be the clear favorite in this race
but at 9/5 ML odds will not offer much value.
(2) Awestruck: This daughter of Tapit exits a rather disappointing finish when last seen
sprinting six furlongs for trainer Rusty Arnold in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2)
at Keeneland in the beginning of October. It is likely that the distance was a bit too sharp for her
and the several issues she experienced throughout the course of the race likely didn’t help either.
Now she’ll stretch back out to a mile, a distance in which she has hit the board in both starts, and
at a track in which she has had some past success, having finished in the money in two of her
four races over the surface. Awestruck’s running style is a tad bit versatile as over the course of
her six races this year she has not only demonstrated a pace-setting running style but also that of
a pace-stalker. However, it is likely that she will employ the former rather than the latter and be
fairly involved in contesting the initial fractions. Brian Hernandez gets the call to ride once again
and as he is winning route races at an 18% rate this year, Awestruck is worth a look in this race.
It is unlikely that she wins today, but there certainly is the possibility that she can hit the board.
(3) Shenandoah Queen: Trainer John Sadler ships in this daughter of Henny Hughes looking for
a bit of class relief following a third place effort in the Zenyatta Stakes (G1) over slightly longer
at Santa Anita at the end of September. Shenandoah Queen has won in four of her seven tries at
today’s distance. Her recent BSRs should make her competitive against this field but as one of
several runners with fairly good early speed it is quite possible that she could find herself
embroiled in an unwanted speed duel early on and thus could cause her to fade a bit down the
stretch. She has been running against some of the best older West Coast females in several of her
last efforts, including a few that will be running in a couple of the Breeder’s Cup races earlier in
today’s card, but it will be interesting to see how she stacks up against her Midwest and East
Coast rivals today especially since her only effort at Churchill Downs in this very race last year
resulted in a sixth place finish. Sadler has done decently over the past three years when
contesting graded stakes races with his runners as he has won 19% of his past 171 starts. Jockey
Tyler Baze will make the journey along with Shenandoah Queen to ride once again and he’s
been fairly successful riding early speed type runners having won 17% of his past 437 starts this
year. Shenandoah Queen might be able to surprise some today and hit the board at a decent price.